Model Output Discussion - Into Summer 2020.

[Zak M]

It's starting to look likely now in the coming week that we will waft up some warmer air and thunderstorms from the continent. I expect there to be some minor changes though as we head into the reliable timeframe. FI currently is probably at +72 hrs! But as I said with the high temperatures and humidity, I won't be surprised to see some thunderstorms breaking out across England at the end of the week and into next weekend. It's a mix of everything!

                  

[johnholmes]

19 minutes ago, MikeC53 said:

I was referring to after that time period the Low to the West edges back in from T180 onwards.

Thanks for replying

Having looked at the Extra interpretation of +180 hours it is still not that high 25-35 mm for the wettest places. Perhaps I have become immune to high totals after the last autumn and winter!

[MATTWOLVES 3]

I'm seriously considering giving the GFS operational runs a wide birth in future, just a few days ago we had settled all the way from the op now we have unsettled all the way, especially from day 7 onwards.... With Low Pressure slap bang over us for days!! The mean is not really supporting of this and continues to show a decent prognosis further down the line.. Perhaps we could save on the Valium by reserving our efforts for the mean folks. Because I tell you what I'm pretty sure my BP as elevated these past few days..

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

Seems another "one of the wettest Junes on record" is looming to add to the collection of wettest Junes on record, how many Junes from the 1990s onwards are now in the Top 10 wettest? 

 

 

[mountain shadow]

1 hour ago, MATT said:

I'm seriously considering giving the GFS operational runs a wide birth in future, just a few days ago we had settled all the way from the op now we have unsettled all the way, especially from day 7 onwards.... With Low Pressure slap bang over us for days!! The mean is not really supporting of this and continues to show a decent prognosis further down the line.. Perhaps we could save on the Valium by reserving our efforts for the mean folks. Because I tell you what I'm pretty sure my BP as elevated these past few days..

 

Matt, you have over 15,000 posts. You shouldn't need health warnings about the pointlessness of trusting anything a GFS op run says.

Edited June 8, 2020 by mountain shadow

[MATTWOLVES 3]

21 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Matt, you have over 15,000 posts. You shouldn't need health warnings about the pointlessness of trusting anything a GFS op sun says.

I've always looked at the op but I take more notice of the mean. My post was more a reference to some who get seriously stressed over each and every op run, but only meant in light hearted Manor. Sometimes it's good to ease the stress levels. You had me worried with the 15,000 posts mind... I've only posted just over 3,000.

[Scorcher]

27 minutes ago, 38.7°C said:

Seems another "one of the wettest Junes on record" is looming to add to the collection of wettest Junes on record, how many Junes from the 1990s onwards are now in the Top 10 wettest? 

 

 

Give it a rest, there have been a number of memorable Junes in that period- 2003, 2006, 2005 for the 2nd half, 2018, 2017 certainly had its moments. Even less remembered months such as June 2010 and 2009 were good.

2000 and 2001 both had memorable hot spells.

Junes have been pretty good overall since the 90s.

The level of rainfall this month is still very much up in the air.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

1 hour ago, 38.7°C said:

Seems another "one of the wettest Junes on record" is looming to add to the collection of wettest Junes on record, how many Junes from the 1990s onwards are now in the Top 10 wettest? 

 

 

Mate you confuse me at times, you keep on talking about a write of Month which is fraught with error anyway.. Then when Tamara posts to give a greater insight regarding where we are heading with those background signals, you thank her for easing your mind, before a couple of days later your back on to say the same thing again! 

Are you basing you theory on the ops or all of the model output including the means and the ens!? The GFS mean looks pretty good.. And if you check the ECM mean out to day 14 you will see that even at that stage pressure is close to 1020mb...thats not a complete write off set of data. Its probably best you take each day one step at a time, talk about not seeing the wood for the trees.. You must be seeing the Amazon rain forest.. Mind you it is becoming scarce these days..

Edited June 8, 2020 by MATT☀️

[NApplewhite]

1 hour ago, MATT said:

I'm seriously considering giving the GFS operational runs a wide birth in future, just a few days ago we had settled all the way from the op now we have unsettled all the way, especially from day 7 onwards.... With Low Pressure slap bang over us for days!! The mean is not really supporting of this and continues to show a decent prognosis further down the line.. Perhaps we could save on the Valium by reserving our efforts for the mean folks. Because I tell you what I'm pretty sure my BP as elevated these past few days..

I used to look at the GFS Operational as my prime source of information about the coming weather but i now realise that i could probably created a better and more accurate statistical meteorological model to forecast the weather up to 16 days in advance. I would advise members of this forum, who like me, love analysing and forecasting the weather to use a combination of all the models and focus more on the Mean pressure charts rather than the tosh that comes out of GFS Operational. As i said the other day, there are numerous examples of GFS over inflating temperatures and they seem unable to forecast the weather even 48 hours in advance.  I think the ECMWF is more accurate along with UKMO.   In the short term its a lovely afternoon in North Wales, the cloud is breaking up and its turning much warmer and more humid than the 14C GFS forecast! 

[cheeky_monkey]

never seen such a terrible set of summer charts for my location..just constant cold and wet with low pressure rolling through day after day right out to the end... even for the UK these charts would be a horror show but for here they are very unusual for this time of year...this weekend just gone was very wet and cold..and its just rinse and repeat for the foreseeable 

[Iceaxecrampon]

12 minutes ago, cheeky_monkey said:

never seen such a terrible set of summer charts for my location..just constant cold and wet with low pressure rolling through day after day right out to the end... even for the UK these charts would be a horror show but for here they are very unusual for this time of year...this weekend just gone was very wet and cold..and its just rinse and repeat for the foreseeable 

It's Summer it's June -  It's the law of averages -  and payback for the driest Spring on record. - There isn't even a Glastonbury Festival this year so we can all see how sh*te it really is.Hopefully July will be better  - were off to Durdle Door for a spot of Tombstoning Covid permitting.

[cheeky_monkey]

5 minutes ago, Iceaxecrampon said:

It's Summer it's June -  It's the law of averages -  and payback for the driest Spring on record. - There isn't even a Glastonbury Festival this year so we can all see how sh*te it really is.Hopefully July will be better  - were off to Durdle Door for a spot of Tombstoning Covid permitting.

i dont live in the UK..im in Alberta Canada..here spring was far from dry lol

[Sunny76]

34 minutes ago, cheeky_monkey said:

never seen such a terrible set of summer charts for my location..just constant cold and wet with low pressure rolling through day after day right out to the end... even for the UK these charts would be a horror show but for here they are very unusual for this time of year...this weekend just gone was very wet and cold..and its just rinse and repeat for the foreseeable 

You seem to be locked into permanent cold or cool conditions over there in 2020. Surely, if this continues, it may indicate a colder year for other parts of the northern hemisphere.

[Snowy L]

19 minutes ago, Iceaxecrampon said:

It's Summer it's June -  It's the law of averages -  and payback for the driest Spring on record. - There isn't even a Glastonbury Festival this year so we can all see how sh*te it really is.Hopefully July will be better  - were off to Durdle Door for a spot of Tombstoning Covid permitting.

But that was payback for one of the wettest winters on record... The law of averages is not having the same low pressure system stuck over or near you for 3 weeks.

[Mapantz]

... and back to model discussion ...

[Allseasons-Si]

I'm surprised no one posted the ICON from this morning(00z),what a beauty that was and i am hoping the 12z follows suit.

i know it's 7-8 days away but i would like that repeated.

Edited June 8, 2020 by Allseasons-si

[Downburst]

If the low that develops off the south of Greenland over the weeked would not break out and phase with our local one out west we might break out of this pattern. It's possible, but very unlikely, but stranger things have happened. 

 

That increases the low pressure and it hangs around a week, before gently pushing north and phasing into a well organised low pressure with the polar front running through the middle of the BI. Not great really.

[Mike Poole]

15 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

I'm surprised no one posted the ICON from this morning(00z),what a beauty that was and i am hoping the 12z follows suit.

i know it's 7-8 days away but i would like that repeated.

ICON 12z good at T174:

[Weathizard]

Icon leading the way? I hope  Pretty consistent from its 0z run as well.

Edited June 8, 2020 by Weathizard

[Allseasons-Si]

12 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

ICON 12z good at T174:

Yep,nice again from the ICON,i wasn't watching it as i was doing tea

the finished product at 180...

I would like to see the gfs do the same but i fear not

we shall see.

 

Edited June 8, 2020 by Allseasons-si

[WxHerts]

Gfs every so slightly further S/SW with trough at 90h..it really does feel like like winter lol, watching the developments of a channel low

[Polar Maritime]

Hope everyone is well, The NetWx-mr has similar ideas for the weekend with a warm E/S/E flow and scope for thunderstorms across the Central belt. Should be an interesting weekend of weather watching coming up.

[Allseasons-Si]

The UKMO swings the low out of the way at 144,i would then suspect that it would warm up from the south.

[WxHerts]

2 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

The UKMO swings the low out of the way at 144,i would then suspect that it would warm up from the south.

Yes very icon esque, a fine scenario

[Methuselah]

Looks like Friday, for when we'll really start to feel Betty Swollocks!