Model Output Discussion - Into Summer 2020.

[damianslaw]

Unusual synoptics coming week, not often we see a diving trough feature move from NW straight through the UK and then into the channel. If this was winter, what a snow maker.. followed by screaming long fetch north easterlies then easterlies. Alas its June. Instead we will see a switch from cool to warm. Unstable airways incoming increasingly humid, thunder downpours could be the end result. Interesting developments, the Atlantic still on lockdown.

 

[Ice Day]

10 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Unusual synoptics coming week, not often we see a diving trough feature move from NW straight through the UK and then into the channel. If this was winter, what a snow maker.. followed by screaming long fetch north easterlies then easterlies.

Just thinking that, rare in winter and even rarer in summer. Fascinating synoptics at the moment. 

Edited June 7, 2020 by Ice Day

[northwestsnow]

18z  nice and warm as we through the end of the week and into next week,temps low to mid 20s...

I will edit to say it might not feel warm under any heavy rain..

Edited June 7, 2020 by northwestsnow

[Downpour]

1 hour ago, Man With Beard said:

I was also thinking the other way round - finely balanced for the SW too, 50-100 mile shift could push a lot of the SW out of the heavy rain zone, too. 

It remains possible that the bulk of the rain ends up falling in the Celtic Sea

[Downpour]

1 hour ago, Mike Poole said:

Things might be moving quite fast, here's ICON.T120  compared to previous run T126:

 

Core of the low in Biarritz on the Franco-Spanish  border by Friday 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

26 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

18z  nice and warm as we through the end of the week and into next week,temps low to mid 20s...

I will edit to say it might not feel warm under any heavy rain..

Yes mate, hopefully that's the plan, but like you say there could be some serious rainfall in places, but this is very much going to be subject to much variation. 

Edit these are the 12z charts, I thought they had updated by now. 

Alas... Its warming up come weeks end..

Edited June 7, 2020 by MATT☀️

[sheikhy]

Gfs control follows the op!!much more settled!!

[Man With Beard]

Still quite a set of options by T144 on tonight's clusters 

And as with previous runs, the trough just sits to our SW for days, unsure whether to bring in a heatwave or a deluge (or both) 

This is D12 and it doesn't seem we've got much further, though the 2 main clusters seem to favour warmer, less unsettled weather

[Zak M]

If you're a fan of warm and thundery weather, then day 5 looks absolutely perfect, with 12c uppers in the east, a max of 1,000j/kg CAPE and temperatures exceeding 25c in some places... what's not to love? 

            

[NApplewhite]

Heavy rain forecast in GFS across Eastern Ireland, whole of wales, Midlands, Yorkshire, NE England, parts of Scotland, Mid Southern England between now and Sunday 14th June 2020.  Low pressure anchored to the SW of England as show below, higher pressure over Scandandvia and low pressure over Continental Europe.  Warm and Humid over Central.Eastern England, London, Liverpool, Manchester, Chester/Wrexham cooler and fresher conditions eleswhere. Two areas of Low pressure will dominate the weather week commencing 15th June 2020 and turning much colder.  No sign of any settled weather on the horizon.  Washout and zero sunshine over the weekend of 19th  - 21st June 2020. 

Edited June 8, 2020 by NApplewhite
Added text

[NApplewhite]

In summary - dire GFS for Heat and sunshine lovers!

[SteveB]

Wow

[Methuselah]

Not a bad GFS 00Z run: and certainly no sign of things turning 'much colder'!

    

    

    

    

    

Though, the op (T850) is on the 'frigid' side of the ens -- at around 5C. It's also an SLP outlier!

    

    

So, in my book, warm, humid and at times thundery weather looks to be the very firm favourite?

Meanwhile, it's another day in the polytunnel, for me, I think?

Edited June 8, 2020 by General Cluster

[northwestsnow]

22 minutes ago, NApplewhite said:

In summary - dire GFS for Heat and sunshine lovers!

Its an outlier..

[Guest]

Its still a very messy this morning. First the positives, ICON, somehow develops HP over the UK by the end of its run, yes please buts its ICON. GFS its positive the Ops run was a cool outlier, the mean is very promising and I'm sure people will cherry pick some no doubt very warm ensembles members out however its in contradiction to GEM & UMKO which don't clear the trough and still have it influencing a larger portion of the UK well into the weekend. The GEM run is horrid with low surface temps and no convection although it does appear to be in the bottom tercile of its ensembles. 

[Man With Beard]

ECM will be the pick of the models this morning, gets the trough into a very favorable position for advecting warmth through all of the UK

By T168, the trough is well away from the UK 

However, for balance, on the UKMO the trough is still lingering quite close by, very good for NW areas though

 

[northwestsnow]

Beautiful EC det, humid,thundery and very warm as per Exeter as we drag in that continental heat ..

[mb018538]

ECM the best this morning. As @Man With Beard says the ukmo keeps the trough too close, and would likely be wetter. Another morning where we don’t know really what’s going to happen past about 3 days time.

[MikeC53]

27 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Beautiful EC det, humid,thundery and very warm as per Exeter as we drag in that continental heat ..

The 'beautiful' charts are what we have had in April and May.  Far from certain IMO that we will become much warmer, and for some areas there will be huge rainfall totals.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Just now, MikeC53 said:

The 'beautiful' charts are what we have had in April and May.  Far from certain IMO that we will become much warmer, and for some areas there will be huge rainfall totals.

but April and may nearly always less troughy, Jun to Aug much troughier

[northwestsnow]

4 minutes ago, MikeC53 said:

The 'beautiful' charts are what we have had in April and May.  Far from certain IMO that we will become much warmer, and for some areas there will be huge rainfall totals.

Hopefully not too much rain.

Certainly very warm and humid on EC as per Exeter guidance...

 

[terrier]

Well this morning charts are nothing to write home about. Gfs and ecm are both looking incredible wet. If you are a fan of warm and humid then your in luck. But looks like we are going to have areas of low pressure close to the U.K. for the next 7 days. With some areas seeing a lot of rainfall. The settled charts are looking very few and far between. 

[Scorcher]

13 minutes ago, terrier said:

Well this morning charts are nothing to write home about. Gfs and ecm are both looking incredible wet. If you are a fan of warm and humid then your in luck. But looks like we are going to have areas of low pressure close to the U.K. for the next 7 days. With some areas seeing a lot of rainfall. The settled charts are looking very few and far between. 

A lot of misleading posts this morning, such as this one. Especially from someone living in Northern England which will be further away from the low. Do you know more than the Met Office now? They are not forecasting a lot of rain for my area at all. Even further south they are forecasting showers rather than continuous rain

Most knowledgeable posters in here know not to take precipitation charts at face value- they always look much worse than reality.

I am stunned by the negativity of the posts this morning. If you were new to the forum and model watching you would be very confused this morning.

[johnholmes]

1 hour ago, MikeC53 said:

The 'beautiful' charts are what we have had in April and May.  Far from certain IMO that we will become much warmer, and for some areas there will be huge rainfall totals.

I again struggle to understand first what you mean by 'huge', what time scale are you suggesting and where, please?

There are always new folk just dropping in here to get a quick idea of the expected weather. Reading you inputs over the past 24 hours they will be badly mislead. Can I ask you shows charts that illustrate your 'huge' rainfall totals please? Do remember that rainfall predictions by any model are quite often not correct even less than 72 hours out.

I am really sorry if this seems heavy handed but your post is not helpful in my view.

 

Just to show what the 00z GFS model is showing for accumulated rainfall by 168h, see below

Net Wx 168h rf total 8 june 2020.doc

 

Ah, problem the usual jh issue with computer technology, anyone able to help me please?

Edited June 8, 2020 by johnholmes

[mb018538]

11 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

I again struggle to understand first what you mean by 'huge', what time scale are you suggesting and where, please?

There are always new folk just dropping in here to get a quick idea of the expected weather. Reading you inputs over the past 24 hours they will be badly mislead. Can I ask you shows charts that illustrate your 'huge' rainfall totals please? Do remember that rainfall predictions by any model are quite often not correct even less than 72 hours out.

I am really sorry if this seems heavy handed but your post is not helpful in my view.

 

Just to show what the 00z GFS model is showing for accumulated rainfall by 168h, see below

Net Wx 168h rf total 8 june 2020.doc 158.5 kB · 1 download

 

Ah, problem the usual jh issue with computer technology, anyone able to help me please?

Its here @johnholmes

As you say - foolish to try and predict ppn totals, models often get this badly wrong.