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Model Output Discussion - Into Summer 2020.


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Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level

    EC mean looks quite warm,esp the SE later on...

    And slack...

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    These sort of comments are ridiculous if I may say so 10 days into meteorological summer, really!

    The upcoming period has been well advertised, as a changeable flatter downstream spell of weather, and for the forthcoming period at least, the pattern stays amplified across the Pacific c/o low frequ

    That is a somewhat parochial assessment if I may say so.    As posted recently, these numerical model products derive data from some of the algorithms used in what is called the Global Synoptic Dynami

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    Posted
  • Location: Bramley, NE Hampshire
  • Location: Bramley, NE Hampshire
    40 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

    In fact, any rain (in the south) looks very hit and miss. Gone are the 100mm washout charts.

    There's a surprise! The ground here was barely dampened by the 'rain' yesterday. I'd be willing to bet that'll be the case for the foreseeable, despite the doom and gloom chat in the last 24 hours about the models!

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    image.thumb.png.5c1563b5ada40976d9384baf1a00cabd.png

    No real surprise to see this mornings ECM op the best of the ensemble pack. The mean nowhere near as good as the op.

    image.thumb.png.16f61f8f54c406c8178c56efdfb7cbce.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    I’m pleased with the ECM 0z ensemble mean, there’s a gradual warm up, especially later further s / se, as per the op, not as strong obviously due to the ensemble spread dilution but certainly a gradually improving picture to something more summer-like..you only have to look at the vile first two chart’s and then notice the improvement!?

    321F0897-6BA9-4722-94F7-C4DA7FF876A5.thumb.gif.f7c873b4fc550a005e0f82a9a17645a3.gif3382793B-BA75-4CB5-9F9F-76BE5632969D.thumb.gif.63eaaa90b8181ff2ea88a21bdbe58e89.gifF9FCFC4E-C1EE-483F-89C2-9BA43671F778.thumb.gif.e4acea02cfeaea76652b9bd377916b54.gif915AD0F0-D49F-4EDD-B892-6759A6228D54.thumb.gif.4b5bd78a7aa01627e303a14a2d1f85f4.gifC2AA8CCA-1201-4931-B4F9-EBE674EBC8AD.thumb.gif.28bb01d2b4741d0a2cc803d8c439cc0f.gifF89B4308-73E6-44C1-B590-8A4253E016AB.thumb.gif.32502ce62711895ca33f1f0fb8692d51.gif4085904D-908D-45BF-B8BA-5F7C024E33BB.thumb.gif.df58bfbec0d88beb4151ab4b6d9ada4c.gif988032E3-984E-4545-8B1D-6D8390A9D9C8.thumb.gif.e6024f7bfa7db1393dfd16281a342ed2.gif

    Edited by JON SNOW
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    Posted
  • Location: Guildford, Surrey, UK
  • Location: Guildford, Surrey, UK
    1 hour ago, Lance M said:

    There's a surprise! The ground here was barely dampened by the 'rain' yesterday. I'd be willing to bet that'll be the case for the foreseeable, despite the doom and gloom chat in the last 24 hours about the models!

    Indeed the rain was so light it barely registered. Recorded .5mm here since yesterday. 

    Going to have to water the garden again at this rate!

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    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

    Looking through the ECM ensembles by D8, it is a pretty close call between the members that look like the op run (heights through the UK, Icelandic low), and members that continue to build heights over the top of a trough which is generally centred just to our SW. Those are the two major clusters that I can see. Only a few runs have the trough directly over us, not that this means a lot!

    General picture, very little certainty beyond D5, odds favouring something at least a little warmer.

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
    11 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

    Looking through the ECM ensembles by D8, it is a pretty close call between the members that look like the op run (heights through the UK, Icelandic low), and members that continue to build heights over the top of a trough which is generally centred just to our SW. Those are the two major clusters that I can see. Only a few runs have the trough directly over us, not that this means a lot!

    General picture, very little certainty beyond D5, odds favouring something at least a little warmer.

    Clusters will be interesting. I guess the mean isn’t that handy if the starting point is wrong - it could be that we filter out scenario 2 and come into line more akin to the OP through the next day or 2.

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    A better than even chance of Eastern England seeing a thunderstorm or two, on Sunday?:oldgood:

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heatwaves and electrical storms, and fidgid Arctic type winters
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level

    Was the GEM an outlier of trend setter.. Last night the 12z was cracking, and ya know what... This mornings 0z is also a belter.... Canada leads the way.. ?

    gem-0-144.png

    gem-0-168.png

    gem-0-180.png

    gem-0-192.png

    gem-0-204.png

    gem-0-216.png

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    Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

    For what it is worth, my take on the next 6-10 days using the 500 mb anomaly charts

    Ec-gfs are rather different this morning from very similar to one another over the past 3-4 days?

    Ec shows the ridge split by a marked trough with really no linkage between the two ridges whereas gfs does keep a link with a cut off upper low beneath s of the uk and over/off western france, the light 500 flow is about n’ly whilst ec shows s of west, but only slck.

    Noaa last evening is, near  the uk, fairly similar to how it was some 4 days ago with the marked ridging and +ve heights centred in mid atlantic and near s Greenland giving a 500 flow n of w into the uk and very slack into a very slack marked trough that extends into france and Iberia, (the flow is slacker than last Sunday.

    Thus noaa is more similar to ec than to gfs, so I would tend to expect that pattern to be what we see as ‘mean’ charts for yet another 6-10 days, so staying on the cool and rather unsettled side rather than any indication of a return to ridging being the main upper feature?

    http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

     

    Not good news and nor is it if you look at the NOAA 8-14 although that should give warmer weather if still unsettled?

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    I'd take this for Day 8...Another day of weeding, under a cloudless sky!:clapping:

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

    hmmm, not exactly what I was expecting having scrolled through all 51 ECM ensemble members at T192, but perhaps some the same patterns are still evident:

    ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2020060400_192.

    So we have cluster 1 with the ridge link-up over the top of the euro trough (39% of runs). Then cluster 2 and cluster 4 try to build the ridge through the UK with an Icelandic trough (35% of runs, if combined). Cluster 3 and cluster 5 (25% of runs) do not allow a proper link up of ridges; cluster 5 emphasises the Euro trough, cluster 3 emphasises the Icelandic trough; both will become a UK trough by T240.

    By T300 it's a NE ridge which catches the eye again, but trouble still close by to the SW, or closer still.

    ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2020060400_300.

    Not really forecastable at the moment, but not a cold set-up.

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    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
    1 minute ago, Man With Beard said:

    hmmm, not exactly what I was expecting having scrolled through all 51 ECM ensemble members at T192, but perhaps some the same patterns are still evident:

    ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2020060400_192.

    So we have cluster 1 with the ridge link-up over the top of the euro trough (39% of runs). Then cluster 2 and cluster 4 try to build the ridge through the UK with an Icelandic trough (35% of runs, if combined). Cluster 3 and cluster 5 (25% of runs) do not allow a proper link up of ridges; cluster 5 emphasises the Euro trough, cluster 3 emphasises the Icelandic trough; both will become a UK trough by T240.

    By T300 it's a NE ridge which catches the eye again, but trouble still close by to the SW, or closer still.

    ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2020060400_300.

    Not really forecastable at the moment, but not a cold set-up.

    In other words, take your pick!

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    GFS 6z looks ok - cool but not desperately unsettled. I don’t mind a bit of rain....just anything but the washout charts with low pressure stuck over the UK for days being dished up yesterday. 

     

    Edited by mb018538
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    Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester

    Very good 00z run from ecmwf and another good dry run from 06z gfs as well!!gone is the washout that was forecasted for the next week!!there is gona be real concern now with the lack of rainfall now forecasted!!as northwest snow mentioned cant really have any confidence in the output at the moment cos it change next run!this dry streak is really something extra ordinary and keeps on giving!!had rain on and off here all day yesterday but was really light and pathetic lol!!

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    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
    18 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

    Very good 00z run from ecmwf and another good dry run from 06z gfs as well!!gone is the washout that was forecasted for the next week!!there is gona be real concern now with the lack of rainfall now forecasted!!as northwest snow mentioned cant really have any confidence in the output at the moment cos it change next run!this dry streak is really something extra ordinary and keeps on giving!!had rain on and off here all day yesterday but was really light and pathetic lol!!

    "Very good" is possibly stretching it, but I agree that's it's a vast improvement on what was showing yesterday!

    Hoping that we are starting to see the models pick up on a more settled signal, which may be reinforced in subsequent runs.

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
    2 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

    "Very good" is possibly stretching it, but I agree that's it's a vast improvement on what was showing yesterday!

    Hoping that we are starting to see the models pick up on a more settled signal, which may be reinforced in subsequent runs.

    I’m still not sure we are likely to see anything like April and May returning - the overall pattern still favours the ridge/trough/ridge pattern to have the trough somewhere over W/NW Europe, with the ridges out in the Atlantic and E Europe.

    It doesn’t mean it has to be a washout though - weak ridges from the main ridge as shown by the gfs etc can prevent it being too unsettled. The best is GEM once again, which has more injected momentum from Pacific convection pushing the Atlantic ridge downstream a bit more. Still plausible but less likely at the moment.

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, warm/hot plumes, snow, anything severe
  • Location: Bedfordshire

    Yes the 0z GEM is excellent as was its previous run, let's hope more models will show a trend towards it!

    gem-0-228.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    27 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

    GFS 6z looks ok - cool but not desperately unsettled. I don’t mind a bit of rain....just anything but the washout charts with low pressure stuck over the UK for days being dished up yesterday. 

    But I do now, unfortunately, think that such a scenario might well be there or thereabouts? Okay, things'll depend on precisely where (and how deep) any trough is, but I do believe that some kind of trough, somewhere near the UK will manifest itself...Unfortunately!?

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

    Unless, of course, the Atlantic and European HPs decide to properly link up??:oldgood:

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    Here are the charts for late June/early July 1983...And that June wasn't great:

    Rrea00119830630.gif    Rrea00119830705.gif

    Things can sometimes change very quickly!:oldgrin:

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    Oh well, the GFS 06Z op is, once again, very much on the cooler side of the GEFS ensmbles; it's also one of the drier runs and has relatively high SLP:

    t850Bedfordshire.png    prmslBedfordshire.png

    t2mBedfordshire.png    prcpBedfordshire.png

    Cool and dry, or warm and thundery?:unsure2:

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    Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
    1 hour ago, johnholmes said:

    For what it is worth, my take on the next 6-10 days using the 500 mb anomaly charts

    Ec-gfs are rather different this morning from very similar to one another over the past 3-4 days?

    Ec shows the ridge split by a marked trough with really no linkage between the two ridges whereas gfs does keep a link with a cut off upper low beneath s of the uk and over/off western france, the light 500 flow is about n’ly whilst ec shows s of west, but only slck.

    Noaa last evening is, near  the uk, fairly similar to how it was some 4 days ago with the marked ridging and +ve heights centred in mid atlantic and near s Greenland giving a 500 flow n of w into the uk and very slack into a very slack marked trough that extends into france and Iberia, (the flow is slacker than last Sunday.

    Thus noaa is more similar to ec than to gfs, so I would tend to expect that pattern to be what we see as ‘mean’ charts for yet another 6-10 days, so staying on the cool and rather unsettled side rather than any indication of a return to ridging being the main upper feature?

    http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

     

    Not good news and nor is it if you look at the NOAA 8-14 although that should give warmer weather if still unsettled?

    Indeed, that cut off low has been there, around Biscay, for several days now and off that id have thought some warm humid but unstable, thundery conditions, some heavy rains likely as per that spell last june .

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, warm/hot plumes, snow, anything severe
  • Location: Bedfordshire

    I think the 06z GEFS p13 is on something today? ?

    Imagine the scenes if this came off!

    13_372_2mtmpmax.thumb.png.5a14659e15021d417fca90ecb1c8967e.png   gens-13-0-372.thumb.png.6d4202177d3a40461c25d3ce64fe2e4e.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
    10 minutes ago, Zak M said:

    I think the 06z GEFS p13 is on something today? ?

    Imagine the scenes if this came off!

    13_372_2mtmpmax.thumb.png.5a14659e15021d417fca90ecb1c8967e.png   gens-13-0-372.thumb.png.6d4202177d3a40461c25d3ce64fe2e4e.png

    Never mind the 19th....the ensembles show a significant number of warm members around the 15th. Mean now close to 10c around then. Corresponding pressure around that date is around 1010mb.....first proper thundery outbreak of the year on the way?

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