Model Output Discussion - Into Summer 2020.

[mb018538]

Don’t think we will see totals that high now to be honest. Maybe a few unlucky spots could get close to 50mm with repeated downpours, but the 75-100mm totals from stuck frontal rain look less likely in my opinion. 

[swfc]

Given the fluctuations in the current output bit surprised at the rutting over the last few days etc,it isn't winter is it.Anyway slightly better 0z this morning in regard to any epic flooding hopefully.id suggest come the end of the next week things drying out and something more akin to summer arriving.Imo Tamara pointed out the ebbing and flowing recently and looks to be near the mark

Edited June 7, 2020 by swfc

[mb018538]

ECM - Turning much warmer by the end of next week

[Mr Frost]

Morning all

Lovely ECM run...for ducks! 

Total accumulated precipitation:

 

Real soaking for the South (max of 97mm for the unlucky ones) but it would be warm rain for the most part with the risk of thunderstorms at times. (Good news for the convective/storm lovers)

Very messy outlook on the above and risk of a very wet midweek ahead for a few parts of the UK and Ireland - low 20’s UK wide by the end of the week? 

Hopefully by mid month/third week of June we are heading for some proper heat! Oh how I miss those mid 20’s temperatures we had recently! 

June is more of a starter for Summer weather...July is the main course! 

Last few days has been a rollercoaster of weather throughout the UK and Ireland - gales, rain, thunderstorms, dry, sunshine and below average/average temperatures! It has been a good spell for the storm and cool Summer lovers.

All the best to you all! 

Edited June 7, 2020 by Mr Frost

[mb018538]

17 minutes ago, Mr Frost said:

Morning all

Lovely ECM run...for ducks! 

Total accumulated precipitation:

 

Real soaking for the South (max of 97mm for the unlucky ones) but it would be warm rain for the most part with the risk of thunderstorms at times. (Good news for the convective/storm lovers)

Very messy outlook on the above and risk of a very wet midweek ahead for a few parts of the UK and Ireland - low 20’s UK wide by the end of the week? 

Hopefully by mid month/third week of June we are heading for some proper heat! Oh how I miss those mid 20’s temperatures we had recently! 

June is more of a starter for Summer weather...July is the main course! 

Last few days has been a rollercoaster of weather throughout the UK and Ireland - gales, rain, thunderstorms, dry, sunshine and below average/average temperatures! It has been a good spell for the storm and cool Summer lovers.

All the best to you all! 

Thanks for those ppn charts Look convective to me so very hard to judge at this range. Let’s just say someone will get soaked during the next 7-10 days

Edited June 7, 2020 by mb018538

[Man With Beard]

1 hour ago, Alderc said:

ECM again turns very messy with troughing remaining nearby as the U.K. again ends up in no mans land. The Scandinavian high doesn’t influence us such as some previous runs with it only really benefiting the far north east of the country. Again high precip totals anywhere south of Manchester with many seeing 40-90mm+.Maybe only on day then does the pattern look more promising? 

Bit of mix on the ECM op, isn't it. Lots of rain in the south Thursday and Friday but it's now a very narrow band and high rain quantities depend on the front stalling (probable) and then in an exact location (tricky!). Some parts of the UK then see temperatures into the mid twenties during the weekend as the front clears, which in turn encourages thunderstorms. Not a washout - well, not all of the time

Edit: oops just seen, @Mr Frost has already summarised the rain situation on ecm, thank you! 

Edited June 7, 2020 by Man With Beard

[NApplewhite]

24 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Thanks for those ppn charts Look convective to me so very hard to judge at this range. Let’s just say someone will get soaked during the next 7-10 days

Unsettled with plenty of rain on Wednesday and Thursday. Friday and Saturday will be lovely across parts of Wales with long sunny periods. 

[Iceaxecrampon]

10 hours ago, 38.7°C said:

Wasn't that S'ly influenced hence the hottest temps being confined to Western England? Bristol & Somerset up through Cheltenham, Birmingham and Western parts, Crewe & Chester were mid 30Cs?? 

What a weekend - we did the Great Gable round then - unforgettable energy sapping conditions.

Sorry being OT but as regards extremes that was the hottest day we ever encountered at altitude on a 10 miler.

[Ice Day]

GFS accumulated rainfall for the next 7 days doesn't show anything extreme, assuming it's correct of course!?

No massive washout being seen on the models this morning, but it is certainly going to be wet with temperatures suppressed over the next 5 or so days.  After that, increasing chances of warmer and (perhaps) thundery weather 

[mushymanrob]

11 hours ago, Allseasons-si said:

I wonder what the UK record temp was from an easterly?

The latest from cpc puts the trough well out of arms reach down towards NW Spain/Portugal,Scandi hp cell still firmly fixed and a continued risk of some good convective imports.

 

Those charts have been consistent now for several runs in anchoring the troughing there... to my eyes the ops dont agree and have the trough further East across france. Id back the consistent NOAA charts any day over the ops at that range. imho these charts would be better then most of the current and recent op runs. Personally id expect the ops to change, it would be unusual if these consistent charts were far out.

[mb018538]

9 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

GFS accumulated rainfall for the next 7 days doesn't show anything extreme, assuming it's correct of course!?

No massive washout being seen on the models this morning, but it is certainly going to be wet with temperatures suppressed over the next 5 or so days.  After that, increasing chances of warmer and (perhaps) thundery weather 

All speculative at the moment really, no one is sure how this low interacts and how much energy/ppn there will be. Met forecast for here says light rain at the moment - with the forecast caveat that there is potential for heavier rain too. Probably have to wait until tomorrow/Tuesday for finer details about a potential midweek deluge.

[mb018538]

2 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

Those charts have been consistent now for several runs in anchoring the troughing there... to my eyes the ops dont agree and have the trough further East across france. Id back the consistent NOAA charts any day over the ops at that range. imho these charts would be better then most of the current and recent op runs. Personally id expect the ops to change, it would be unusual if these consistent charts were far out.

It’ll be interesting to see @mushymanrob. As you say, these charts haven’t altered much in keeping that low down to there SW.

[sheikhy]

Midlands monsoon on ecm!!gfs and ukmo a lot drier this morning!!midlands seems to be serious target for torrential rain in the last few days!!

[cheshire snow]

Despite the rain warrming up nicely by next weekend according to the week ahead forecast 24c for London on Saturday 

C.S

[bluearmy]

48 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

Those charts have been consistent now for several runs in anchoring the troughing there... to my eyes the ops dont agree and have the trough further East across france. Id back the consistent NOAA charts any day over the ops at that range. imho these charts would be better then most of the current and recent op runs. Personally id expect the ops to change, it would be unusual if these consistent charts were far out.

 being 5 days end means they will smooth out a lot of the noise. the op means that John posts for days 6/10 might be an interesting comparison.  
 

the upper trough into nw Iberia as a mean looks ok but i think all the spread that we notice is to the east of that (for obvious reasons). However, there is spread to the west too.  The spread to the west is related to the Atlantic feeding in whereas that to the east looks much less reliable as the euro troughing ebbs and flows in a far less predictable fashion. 

 

[northwestsnow]

Quite an unusual set up incoming..

I guess it will have a continental feel whereby temps will be supressed under any rain band but will feel warm when the sun comes out.

Europe is warming up so the uppers from the east will be decent..

It doesn't look like we will get stuck under a cold trough looking at the 00z runs which is a relief!

[Frosty.]

Some great posts, especially from Mr Frost..love that movie BTW

Looking at the ECM 0z ensemble mean it’s an improving picture, especially compared to the dross we have now and the next day or so..looking further ahead the uppers (850’s) warm through, and it becomes less unsettled..the ensemble spread will nearly always dilute the warmest potential but it’s not just the ecm showing a warm up, I’ve seen incredible potential from the GEFS 0z too!!!..I think we are on track for a return to something more summer-like...SOON!!!

 

Edited June 7, 2020 by JON SNOW

[Guest]

Decent GFS out to about 200hrs once we get through this week, somewhere will get pretty wet but who know where yet!!?? Warming up into the weekend, pretty humid and temps recovering into the low twenties, maybe mid twenties if the cloud clears and maybe some pokey storms. Further out through the run with strong blocks both east and west of the UK pressure once again falls and a trough develops in situ, a plausible option however a fair way away still. 

Edited June 7, 2020 by Guest

[johnholmes]

34 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

 being 5 days end means they will smooth out a lot of the noise. the op means that John posts for days 6/10 might be an interesting comparison.  
 

the upper trough into nw Iberia as a mean looks ok but i think all the spread that we notice is to the east of that (for obvious reasons). However, there is spread to the west too.  The spread to the west is related to the Atlantic feeding in whereas that to the east looks much less reliable as the euro troughing ebbs and flows in a far less predictable fashion. 

 

Interesting b and mushy, yes the NOAA 500 mb anomaly charts are means over the 6-10 day or 8-14 day periods. They have been quite consistent for a few days now with the main trough as shown on the post above with through not far sw of the UK and coming form their origin off s'ern Greenland and down towards nw Iberia. Of course any chart for a day maybe 2 may show the trough further east but the overall pattern for the 6-10 days will revert to what is shown. Well that is my understanding having used these charts for many years on a daily basis. I could be wrong though. But they are usually near the mark. Any synoptic output either Ec or GFS, that is showing 500 mb charts similar to the mean NOAA output will in my view 70% or more of the time be in the right area.

Edited June 7, 2020 by johnholmes
missing word

[Methuselah]

Not a bad GFS 06Z, once the weekend arrives; until then, it's rain or showers with depressed temperatures:

    

    

    

    

    

Thereafter, it's 'heaven', for those of us who like it 'warm with thundery rain or thunderstorms'

[mb018538]

6z GFS op a bad apple as expected. Mean not nearly as bad.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Yes Pete.. A rather subdued week ahead from midweek... Perhaps drier and brighter to start the week and dare I say it warmer and more settled come next weekend. Perhaps a thundery risk also! Just had a gander at the 6Z mean and it's pretty good right out into deep FI.. That's not to say it will work out that way, but at the moment it looks rather good... This cool weather we currently have is know good for man.. nor Beast... If its gonna rain, at least make it feel like we are having a shower..

[northwestsnow]

2 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

6z GFS op a bad apple as expected. Mean not nearly as bad.

Good spot m8...

What is it with these outliers on GEFS, the op is regularly an unsettled or cool outlier in its suite.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

Good spot m8...

What is it with these outliers on GEFS, the op is regularly an unsettled or cool outlier in its suite.

Yes mate the ops, especially from the GFS seem to be having a nightmare just lately.. They either want to go very cool and unsettled, or very warm and settled, with know middle ground.. Thank god for the mean and the ens..

[Methuselah]

So, a quick butcher's at the GEFS 06Z ens clearly suggests that the 06Z op is a 'wrong'n', the worst of all possible worlds: lousy 2m temps, heap big cloud, heap big rain...I guess the raindance was too realistic?

    

    

Given the concurrent dip in SLP and T850s, I guess it's suggesting an LP over, well, the Low Countries!

Edited June 7, 2020 by General Cluster