Model Output Discussion - Into Summer 2020.

[Djdazzle]

ECM 120 seems to be clearing the trough a little quicker.

[weathermadbarnsleylad]

2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM T120, looks like GEM solution and then some:

Edit, add GEM chart for same time:

Easterly by day 6 ish as low moves away. 

Edited June 6, 2020 by weathermadbarnsleylad
Missed text

[mb018538]

1 minute ago, Djdazzle said:

ECM 120 seems to be clearing the trough a little quicker.

Yep - at 120 it’s centred over France rather than the UK.

[Djdazzle]

ECM 144 - best 144 chart of the afternoon.

[mb018538]

Better ECM. Not a washout this time.

[Snowy L]

ECM goes for the quick slide south like UKMO. Looks much more cut off from the rest of the Atlantic lows too so maybe an early end to the slider low conveyor belt?

[Singularity]

So, first low slips through 12 hours faster than it did on the 00z, then the next disturbance in the Atlantic drops south further to the west - a big difference there to the GEM 12z.

Let's see how this one pans out. As seasoned members (forum members, I mean!) will know, westward corrections are common with these sliders.

[northwestsnow]

I wonder if EC would be thundery at 144?

Warm,humid,slack..

 

[Mike Poole]

ECM T168:

First, looks more coherent than GFS at this timescale, second, any complex trough formation looks SW, yes impinging on UK at this point, but thunderstorms possible.  A better run, so far, well I say so far, this at the moment is as far as any run is believable!

Edited June 6, 2020 by Mike Poole

[mb018538]

2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM T168:

 

looks warm and thundery to me...

[Mike Poole]

A secondary re the ECM T168, does this not look as if the UK is under the right ball of a giant scrotum straddling the northeast Atlantic sector? 

[northwestsnow]

Serious heat across Poland and  Belarus on this run..

[Mike Poole]

Here it comes, T216:

[Djdazzle]

As @Singularity alluded to, troughs in the Atlantic backing west. Lots of potential on this run.

[Captain Shortwave]

Subtle positive hints from the ECM into week 2, heights beginning to build into Central Europe as low heights back westwards. Becoming drier, sunnier and very warm by day nine with a southeasterly flow across the U.K. We can only hope but plausible given the extensive blocking to the north east of the U.K. 

[northwestsnow]

EC looks humid and thundery to me..

Bit of everything...

[mb018538]

1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

Here it comes, T216:

For some reason I think it looks better/warmer on WZ maybe it’s the colours!

[Zak M]

Definitely a warm and thundery run on the 12z ECM... just how I like it!

[Singularity]

Good steps on this run - westward correction in evidence.

Keeping a wary eye on the Arctic setup though, that remains a possible complication. Hopefully we'll in reality see at least a small trough manage to hang on over Greenland, as has often proved the case in the past few months. If that happens, the ingredients are there for a very warm or even quite hot spell of weather - but with scattered thunderstorm potential. Think July 2014's hotter spells.

[Djdazzle]

1 minute ago, mb018538 said:

For some reason I think it looks better/warmer on WZ maybe it’s the colours!

And Meteociel looks better in winter with the deep blues!

[Man With Beard]

It's important to realize, this is not like forecasting an Atlantic low in winter. This is about, in the grand scheme of things, a tiny low that has cut away from a larger low. These things can change course even at T72. Sometimes the models just get rid of them altogether! There's absolutely no way of forecasting what will happen beyond T96 with much confidence at the micro level. 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

2 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

For some reason I think it looks better/warmer on WZ maybe it’s the colours!

What I thought, colours can be misleading, looks fantastic on WZ

[Singularity]

Stumbles a bit for D10 with the N. Atlantic setup not quite aligned right - but regardless, the 'dome' of anomalous warmth that it builds northward from Europe is... incredible. Shows what's conceivably possible if things align a bit differently such that the heat moves more north-westward than northward.

Actual conditions aside, be they to your liking or not, there should be a fascinating period of model watching ahead. About as amplified as it gets outside of winter blocking episodes.

[Mike Poole]

ECM T240

As a heat and thunder fan, I'll take that. 

Considering the 12 suite as a whole, it strikes me that the ECM and GEM runs were much more plausible than the GFS or ICON, so maybe we are on to something.  

JMA T192:

I always like to look at this one because the model is derived from the UKMO one. 

So warmer spell upcoming, most likely, but with some thunderstorms to boot, good start to summer from the 12z suite....

Edited June 6, 2020 by Mike Poole

[Man With Beard]

ECM rainfall down from previous runs but still quite wet for most, 60-70mm for the 10 period is the max over southern / central areas.