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Model Output Discussion - Into Summer 2020.


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Posted
  • Location: Wrexham
  • Location: Wrexham
    16 minutes ago, MATT☀️ said:

    Icon the 1st one out of the blocks, and the first one to be flushed down the lav.. Trough City Central. 

    icon-0-162.png

    As i thought ICON has the trough dominating weather across the UK, Northern France and the Benelux!  I am sure GFS will follow (which i lost faith in about 4 years ago after numerous occasions of predicting heatwaves at +120 then changing to rain and low pressure in the next couple of runs). Why does everyone always focus on GFS? This is not the weather i want in high summer but this is the UK and we can expect cold weather over the next 5 - 6 days before temperatures recover (though remaining very unsettled as the trough - which is difficult to shift, embeds itself for the next two weeks slap bank over the UK)

    GFSOPEU12_39_1.png

    GFSOPEU12_51_1.png

    Edited by NApplewhite
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    These sort of comments are ridiculous if I may say so 10 days into meteorological summer, really!

    The upcoming period has been well advertised, as a changeable flatter downstream spell of weather, and for the forthcoming period at least, the pattern stays amplified across the Pacific c/o low frequ

    That is a somewhat parochial assessment if I may say so.    As posted recently, these numerical model products derive data from some of the algorithms used in what is called the Global Synoptic Dynami

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent
    26 minutes ago, MikeC53 said:

    Yes, troughs have nowhere to go with big blocking to the NE,

     The trough actually manages to miss the UK, goes east into mainland Europe then bounces back West to the UK. Looks a very unnatural movement. For the short term at least, Monday - Thursday is dry on the Icon apart from a decaying front on Tuesday making it cloudy for England.

    It's all over by Tuesday night on the GFS.

    Edited by Snowy L
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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

    Ooooh!

    At this exciting model watching time, we've got a new GFS parallel!!

    6z rolling now out to T132:

    image.thumb.jpg.f7288585e6338674fee1038e1a058781.jpg

    If my French is serving me well, it is an upgrade in resolution from 13km to 10km...make of it what you will!

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    image.thumb.png.d8346c4a24f19323e76a6e9941680935.png

    We all know what this means at T84!

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    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
    4 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

    Ooooh!

    At this exciting model watching time, we've got a new GFS parallel!!

    6z rolling now out to T132:

    image.thumb.jpg.f7288585e6338674fee1038e1a058781.jpg

    If my French is serving me well, it is an upgrade in resolution from 13km to 10km...make of it what you will!

    GFS already seems to be in a parallel world .. .. .?

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    Posted
  • Location: Coventry
  • Weather Preferences: anticyclonic unless a snow storm
  • Location: Coventry
    1 minute ago, Djdazzle said:

    GFS already seems to be in a parallel world .. .. .?

    I want to live in GFS Parallel world. The  weather's better.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    image.thumb.gif.928d7492c8ee24d08c53ea999e0409fb.gif

    UKMO day 5 - cool and unsettled

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

    T120 on UKMO and it doesn't look good, question is will it drift more south with the ridge over the top?

    image.thumb.jpg.0a918e44a3fa48ec3c1a5fb6a37c7812.jpg

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    Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

    Day 4

    UKMO
    UW96-21.GIF?06-17

    Low pressure sinking south through the UK

     

    GFS

    gfs-0-96.png?12

    Pretty similar, the low drops slightly further west compared to the 06z.

    In the end we need the low to cleanly sink away from the UK and not become some complex area of low heights over central/southern Europe.

    Edited by Captain Shortwave
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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heatwaves and electrical storms, and fidgid Arctic type winters
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level

    UKMO at 120hrs perhaps clearing that low for an improvement.. Perhaps.. @Mike Poole thanks for the heads up with that model.. ?

    144hrs looks like another Low as our name written on it. 

    Edit.... Could my reverse Psychology be paying off... ?

    UW96-21 (1).gif

    UW120-21 (1).gif

    UW144-21 (1).gif

    Edited by MATT☀️
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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    image.thumb.gif.acea404430412db939ceb745d811f49b.gif

    Day 6 - Improving picture as low sinks into France 

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

    T144' think it has shot through, but is there another one incoming?

    image.thumb.jpg.ff14764237aeb241c71d025c955ea6c1.jpg

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    Posted
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Not a fan of heatstroke.
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
    2 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

    image.thumb.gif.acea404430412db939ceb745d811f49b.gif

    Day 6 - Improving picture as low sinks into France 

    Wouldn't the low heights over southern Greenland follow?

    Edited by chrisbell-nottheweatherman
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    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex

    UKMO 144 is not a good chart. Negatively tilted Azores HP and Scandinavia HP too far apart. It would go quickly downhill from there.

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
    3 minutes ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

    Wouldn't the low heights over southern Greenland follow?

    Quite possibly - it’s just an improvement on how bad the 120 chart is. Im desperate here! ?

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
    1 minute ago, Djdazzle said:

    UKMO 144 is not a good chart. Negatively tilted Azores HP and Scandinavia HP too far apart. It would go quickly downhill from there.

    Not sure i agree with that..

    Looks a slowly improving picture to me thereonin but wed and thur next week look very wet for some..

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

    Meanwhile in GFS land, by T162, it is a complete and total mess!

    image.thumb.jpg.e42fc3fe8cea4c006c6fdc4175fd5596.jpg

    Everywhere!

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    7 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

    Not sure i agree with that..

    Looks a slowly improving picture to me thereonin but wed and thur next week look very wet for some..

    Yes I agree, NWS; a warmer easterly by next weekend? And, by then, rain will likely be  no-longer 'much-needed'!:oldgrin:

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

    Edited by General Cluster
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    Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

    Meanwhile the Arpege, again just four days away.

    arpegeeur-0-96.png?12

    Umm...... Where's the low gone..... ?‍♂️

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Worcester
  • Location: Near Worcester

    As usual, once poor charts have appeared as the lilkely solution, things go from bad to worse very quickly. A lot of rain on the GFS as this coming week as the trough hangs around. The UKMO gives a respite at T144 but the next system is heading straight for the UK off the Atlantic.

    And there is no 'warmth' to be seen.

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    Posted
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent
    6 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

    Meanwhile in GFS land, by T162, it is a complete and total mess!

    image.thumb.jpg.e42fc3fe8cea4c006c6fdc4175fd5596.jpg

    Everywhere!

    Yep this isn't even just the UK at this point.  Just about everywhere in Europe  apart from Scandi and Italy maybe. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

    To me this isn't bad, FI yes but warm muggy, even chance of thunder, and the more humid the better for the virus

    h850t850eu.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Worcester
  • Location: Near Worcester

    The only plus point is that it's once again synoptically different from the previous runs, offering a little hope that a better solution could occur but the key point for me is that at T144 we have the models agreeing on significant blocking across N Scandinavia and that's never going to mean settled weather here.

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    Not at all easy to see what's going on, is it? What with the models throwing out random Noddy runs (and the MetO updates changing daily) it's all a bit odd and hard to make much sense of?:unsure2:

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

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