Jump to content
Cold?
Local
Radar
Snow?

Model Output Discussion - Into Summer 2020.


Recommended Posts

Spotted a post you think may be an issue? Please help the team by reporting it.
  • Replies 3k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

These sort of comments are ridiculous if I may say so 10 days into meteorological summer, really!

The upcoming period has been well advertised, as a changeable flatter downstream spell of weather, and for the forthcoming period at least, the pattern stays amplified across the Pacific c/o low frequ

That is a somewhat parochial assessment if I may say so.    As posted recently, these numerical model products derive data from some of the algorithms used in what is called the Global Synoptic Dynami

Posted Images

Posted
  • Location: Near Worcester
  • Location: Near Worcester
    3 minutes ago, Tamara said:

    The commentary on here is poorer to be honest than anything that NWP suggests ?

    Far too much absurd overreaction to this trough cutting off and disrupting south through the middle/latter part of the coming week. It has already been pointed out more than once that this theme has ebbed and flowed since early in the week (i.e at least 4 days) so it is hard to know why so many are acting surprised and/or disappointed about it. Especially as it was something of a note of interest initially in terms of possibilities thereafter! Quite bizarre! ?

     From my own point of view little has changed over the week, other than yesterday it did seem possible that a faster track to warmer air might have been possible with the Atlantic ridge splitting and allowing a downstream ridge to develop ahead of the trough - thus allowing the warmer air to back westwards more quickly. However, from the outset, about three posts back, some doubts were expressed about the eastward progression of the Atlantic ridge prior to mid month and hence the full retrogression and re-set route always seemed more likely..

    The diagnostic - i.e the balance of the completion of the retrogressive phase (as detailed to exhaustion already) and when momentum from upstream might start to return - thus re-setting a trough in the Atlantic vs ridging across Scandinavia was always going to be a fine margin and this margin is far from decided yet  - following the trough heading north to south through the UK.   That theme is still advertised - it is simply that the numerical models have not decided where the new trough wavelength sits vs the warmer continental air to the east. 

    Better not to agitate over intra day operational details, and most especially surface details, which frankly are a particular lottery up to 5 to 10 days out at the moment and from my own perspective seems like a complete waste of time as well as quite unnecessary and self inflicted  stress,  That includes any "demonising" of any computer model which are simply making calculations around a broad theme that has actually been consistent for several days - it is simply micro scale details which are determining how the process evolves and for a small island like this one these make subtle but quite significant short term variations from one output to another and from one numerical model to another.

    Rather than trying to see too many trees in the wood, stand back and cast an eye generally around the wood first, and then pick out the trees one by one. One corner at a time rather taking on the next three at once and expecting immediate answers.

    In summary, and based on attempted objectivity (not optimism) still no reason at all not to expect a warming trend once this sinking trough equation is dealt with. In fact the mid month period onwards holds a lot of interest for low pressure to finally end up sitting to our west and south west and sending up some very warm and humid air as it pushes up against omnipresent high pressure to the NE. That, representing the point where the retrogressive phase completes and the trough is re-set to the west.

    Really seems counter intuitive to let this sinking trough overtake the greater perspective and then just extrapolate outwards c/o baseless pessimism. It isn't actually about being either optimistic or pessimistic - just trying to stop believing that is the models that lead the signals....

     

    I think the first bolded  statement is unfair - people are commenting on the NWP as they are see it and nobody has posted inaccurate charts.

    The second statement simply is not borne out by some of the modelling which we are looking at - low pressure gets in before any warming from the South or East can occur.

    • Like 3
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    GFS 06Z is nae bad, in its later stages: low pressure out west; just we're I like to see it!:oldgood:

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

    • Like 6
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
    7 minutes ago, Tamara said:

    The commentary on here is poorer to be honest than anything that NWP suggests ?

    Far too much absurd overreaction to this trough cutting off and disrupting south through the middle/latter part of the coming week. It has already been pointed out more than once that this theme has ebbed and flowed since early in the week (i.e at least 4 days) so it is hard to know why so many are acting surprised and/or disappointed about it. Especially as it was something of a note of interest initially in terms of possibilities thereafter! Quite bizarre! ?

     From my own point of view little has changed over the week, other than yesterday it did seem possible that a faster track to warmer air might have been possible with the Atlantic ridge splitting and allowing a downstream ridge to develop ahead of the trough - thus allowing the warmer air to back westwards more quickly. However, from the outset, about three posts back, some doubts were expressed about the eastward progression of the Atlantic ridge prior to mid month and hence the full retrogression and re-set route always seemed more likely..

    The diagnostic - i.e the balance of the completion of the retrogressive phase (as detailed to exhaustion already) and when momentum from upstream might start to return - thus re-setting a trough in the Atlantic vs ridging across Scandinavia was always going to be a fine margin and this margin is far from decided yet  - following the trough heading north to south through the UK.   That theme is still advertised - it is simply that the numerical models have not decided where the new trough wavelength sits vs the warmer continental air to the east. 

    Better not to agitate over intra day operational details, and most especially surface details, which frankly are a particular lottery up to 5 to 10 days out at the moment and from my own perspective seems like a complete waste of time as well as quite unnecessary and self inflicted  stress,  That includes any "demonising" of any computer model which are simply making calculations around a broad theme that has actually been consistent for several days - it is simply micro scale details which are determining how the process evolves and for a small island like this one these make subtle but quite significant short term variations from one output to another and from one numerical model to another.

    Rather than trying to see too many trees in the wood, stand back and cast an eye generally around the wood first, and then pick out the trees one by one. One corner at a time rather taking on the next three at once and expecting immediate answers.

    In summary, and based on attempted objectivity (not optimism) still no reason at all not to expect a warming trend once this sinking trough equation is dealt with. In fact the mid month period onwards holds a lot of interest for low pressure to finally end up sitting to our west and south west and sending up some very warm and humid air as it pushes up against omnipresent high pressure to the NE. That, representing the point where the retrogressive phase completes and the trough is re-set to the west.

    Really seems counter intuitive to let this sinking trough overtake the greater perspective and then just extrapolate outwards c/o baseless pessimism. It isn't actually about being either optimistic or pessimistic - just trying to stop believing that is the models that lead the signals....

     

    Thanks Tamara and thankyou for your message, i seem to have a problem with my message settings so couldn't reply last night ..

    ;)

     

    • Like 5
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Near Worcester
  • Location: Near Worcester
    3 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

    How on earth on 6 June can you make such a statement. Have you no memory of just how quickly the predicted weather patterns can and do change?

    They can John but what Terrier is seeing is what several others are too - once you get that 'over the top' blocking in Summer it means slow moving fronts and a stuck pattern for our locale aka 2007 & 2012.

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
    1 minute ago, General Cluster said:

    GFS 06Z is nae bad, in its later stages: low pressure out west; just we're I like to see it!:oldgood:

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

    A very good run if you’re a convective fan. 

    Whilst most eyes are fixed on the U.K. and Europe on this run, have a look at the Arctic circle. A disaster for Arctic ice if this was to come off. The Baffin isles are bathed in temperatures in the upper 20s and a huge dipole setting up! 

    • Like 3
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
    4 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

    GFS 06Z is nae bad, in its later stages: low pressure out west; just we're I like to see it!:oldgood:

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

    Ed, definitely, southerlies even if not sunny even unsettled, could still be around 20 degrees, much better than NW, the worst wind direction for here

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    Sorry can’t post charts right now but I’m seeing a marked improvement towards more summery conditions longer term on the GEFS 6z mean..baby steps back to summer as we had in much of May..and parts of April to!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!??

    Edited by JON SNOW
    • Like 6
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth

    Speaking positively the GFS Ops run is mostly on in the coolest most unsettled side of the ensembles, however the majority of the warmer members have also disappeared taking the warm easterly option of the table. Feels like the road to middle ground, not sure that's a good or a bad thing. 

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, warm/hot plumes, snow, anything severe
  • Location: Bedfordshire

    What a chart this is!! ?

    12_348_2mtmpmax.thumb.png.e66931d5132f9c345a73a6e414fc25bf.png   gens-12-1-348.thumb.png.b3fa0e89ac78ad7e5310c40b97eae529.png   gens-12-0-348.thumb.png.cbab23a47e4c241fd89116cf8eaea585.png

    • Like 7
    • Thanks 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

    I'll happily take unsettled, just want it warmer

    • Like 4
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    Thanks as usual @Tamara ?

    Id never write off a whole month or season. It’s foolish and as @johnholmes says isn’t possible to do with any accuracy. Perhaps best to take a step back and see where the land lays in a couple of days - there is still much disagreement at present.

    • Like 8
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    31 minutes ago, Alderc said:

    GFS really is a disgustingly cold run for my area. 18Z Max temps as follows, some areas do better, some worse. Either way dire.

    Tomorrow 7th - 15C

    Monday 8th - 15C

    Tuesday 9th - 14C

    Wednesday 10th - 14C

    Thursday 11th - 14C

    Friday 12th - 15C

    Saturday 13th - 11C

    Sunday 14th - 14C

    Monday 15th - 15C

    Tuesday 16th - 16C

    Wednesday 17th -18C

    Thursday 18th - 14C

    Friday 19th -18C

    Saturday 20th - 14C

    Monday 21st -17C

    Isn't it a wee bit late to be posting yesterday's GFS 18Z temperature estimates, Chris? I mean, the world has moved on since yesterday?:oldgrin:

    • Like 8
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    28 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

    How on earth on 6 June can you make such a statement. Have you no memory of just how quickly the predicted weather patterns can and do change?

    He's been on the voice-trumpet again, John...Holy ectoplasm!:oldgrin:

    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth

     

    4 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

    Isn't it a wee bit late to be posting yesterday's GFS 18Z temperature estimates, Chris? I mean, the world has moved on since yesterday?:oldgrin:

    Sorry I was not clear, they are max temps @ 18Z each day from the GFS 06Z run this morning. 

    • Thanks 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Wimbledon,SW London
  • Location: Wimbledon,SW London

    Tell you what,charts/models certainly sniffing on a much more unsettled and wet period coming up. Will be interesting to see the met office outlook. Will be a long while till we see any prolonged sun and heat if the 06z is to be believed. June looking like a right off at this stage. 

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
    46 minutes ago, Alderc said:

    GFS really is a disgustingly cold run for my area. 18Z Max temps as follows, some areas do better, some worse. Either way dire.

    Tomorrow 7th - 15C | Monday 8th - 15C | Tuesday 9th - 14C | Wednesday 10th - 14C | Thursday 11th - 14C | Friday 12th - 15C | Saturday 13th - 11C

    Sunday 14th - 14C | Monday 15th - 15C | Tuesday 16th - 16C | Wednesday 17th -18C | Thursday 18th - 14C | Friday 19th -18C | Saturday 20th - 14C

    Monday 21st -17C

    Are you not actually in Bournemouth, then? Tomorrow has 19°C there, for example.

    ukmaxtemp.png

    Panning through the days, maximums are generally 2-3*C higher than you've listed. Still not great, but not terrible, especially when factoring in the cool bias of the model (1-3*C, least bias on cloudy days). The potential 'dire' factor is the rainfall, depending on how the lows move around.

    Now, time to read Tamara's latest well-researched and balanced update.

    • Like 9
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    The GFS 06Z op is, once again, running mostly along the bottom of the GEFS ens:

    t850Somerset.png    prmslSomerset.png

    t2mSomerset.png    prcpSomerset.png

    So, as it's been for quite a few days now, it's as clear as mud!:unsure2:

    Edited by General Cluster
    • Like 8
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Between Sidmouth and Exeter
  • Location: Between Sidmouth and Exeter

    Although the ECM is wet, thankfully I don't think we would get flooding problems comparable to 2007 etc, especially with the dry Spring. Maybe some local issues due to blocked drains etc, or dry soil if we get intense downpours, but not widespread river flooding. Back then we had totals well in excess of 100mm in 24 hours on saturated ground.

    1 hour ago, Alderc said:

    GFS really is a disgustingly cold run for my area. 18Z Max temps as follows, some areas do better, some worse. Either way dire.

    Tomorrow 7th - 15C

    Monday 8th - 15C

    Tuesday 9th - 14C

    Wednesday 10th - 14C

    Thursday 11th - 14C

    Friday 12th - 15C

    Saturday 13th - 11C

    Sunday 14th - 14C

    Monday 15th - 15C

    Tuesday 16th - 16C

    Wednesday 17th -18C

    Thursday 18th - 14C

    Friday 19th -18C

    Saturday 20th - 14C

    Monday 21st -17C

    I think you might be accidentally viewing the wrong dataset, tomorrow looks more like 18-19C in southern counties.

    ukmaxtemp.png


    There's other days that don't look too bad more widely
    ukmaxtemp.png
    Bearing in mind last week the GFS was going for 20/21C in some places that actually saw the mid-20s

    Thursday the 18th, 14C?
    ukmaxtemp.png
     

    Edited by Evening thunder
    • Like 3
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
    9 minutes ago, Singularity said:

    Are you not actually in Bournemouth, then? Tomorrow has 19°C there, for example.

    ukmaxtemp.png

    Panning through the days, maximums are generally 2-3*C higher than you've listed. Still not great, but not terrible, especially when factoring in the cool bias of the model (1-3*C, least bias on cloudy days). The potential 'dire' factor is the rainfall, depending on how the lows move around.

    Now, time to read Tamara's latest well-researched and balanced update.

    Yes to be honest, his posts have been misleading about maximum temps over the last few days.

    A couple of days back he jumped on one ECM chart that showed a max of 9C for these parts today. I said it was just raw data and wouldn't pan out that way. We are now expecting 15/16C this afternoon.

    It's very easy to cherry pick charts to suit an agenda.

    • Like 6
    • Thanks 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    image.thumb.png.90ec3e87bac8cad4a9d0b8ca4d2a3c23.png

    Looks like the GFS is starting to fall into line....about 1/3 looking more like the ukmo now rather than just one sole run on the 00z.

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth
    15 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

    Yes to be honest, his posts have been misleading about maximum temps over the last few days.

    A couple of days back he jumped on one ECM chart that showed a max of 9C for these parts today. I said it was just raw data and wouldn't pan out that way. We are now expecting 15/16C this afternoon.

    It's very easy to cherry pick charts to suit an agenda.

    I do NOT like this post, I would never mislead or attempt too, and will always hold my hands up if I make an error and on this occasion I have made an error. I don't why but my PC has locked/cached in some of the GFS data from yesterdays output, so apologise.

    Also as stated before I only try and show/state/comment what the models show, if says 100mm that's what I'll say, just like if its says 9C or 39C that's what'll I say. If you don't like it, just ignore it. Lastly its getting frustrating of the ridicule you get if you dare attempt to post against the optimal seasonal output, i.e. cold in winter, hot in summer. No-one jumps all over someone picking out a stonking massive outlier two weeks away showing 31C, yet post something showing 9C just 4days out at your peril.

     

    Edited by Alderc
    • Like 7
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
    7 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

    Erghhhh.....what I and a couple of others mentioned earlier. Eastern Europe bake and NW Europe in the doldrums with a trough nearby. Pattern sets in and gets stuck for weeks/months. Potential to be wrong of course - the May update now looks well off key. 

    Yes a classic ridge - trough - ridge pattern. The trough over the UK, mid atlantic heights and heights too far to our NE. On occasion may pull in some warmer uppers from the south as the pattern ebbs and wains - this is being shown for next week, heights to the NE influencing things more, before possibility of the trough attacking us again from the NW to reset the pattern. 

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

    Wow nice to see good debate in the summer months on here! 

    What's really intriguing about the upcoming period is that, at this stage,  a case could be made for two complete extremes! We really are on the brink of either monsoon weather, but, with just a little shift of the whole pattern, we are on the brink of hot and sunny weather too! 

    I wouldn't want to criticize anyone who chooses to emphasize either possibility at the moment. 

    What may be of interest is that this Scandi High is not forecast to go very far very soon on most ensembles. If it hangs around a while, we'd be very unlucky to keep getting hit by Atlantic troughs - what tends to happen after a while is the Azores High breaks through and kills off the troughs. ECM Cluster 1 at D15 shows this transition, though this had been a gradual process starting from D10. 

    ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2020060600_360.

    • Like 8
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Guest
    This topic is now closed to further replies.
    ×
    ×
    • Create New...