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Model Output Discussion - Into Summer 2020.


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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

    So we're going round in circles with this. The ensembles were playing with the same possibilities for mid June at D15 as they are now at D6. Some suites have favoured keeping the trough away from the UK, and some have shifted it back. 

    Safest advice (I'm sure this is no different to a few days back) - further north is most likely to be dry and sunny (after initial rain), a mixture further south, but warming up eventually for all. 

    Edited by Man With Beard
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    These sort of comments are ridiculous if I may say so 10 days into meteorological summer, really!

    The upcoming period has been well advertised, as a changeable flatter downstream spell of weather, and for the forthcoming period at least, the pattern stays amplified across the Pacific c/o low frequ

    That is a somewhat parochial assessment if I may say so.    As posted recently, these numerical model products derive data from some of the algorithms used in what is called the Global Synoptic Dynami

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
    2 hours ago, mb018538 said:

    60E810E3-0D6B-4EAC-AF82-7C6F17498FFD.thumb.gif.64025b2f1540f455b84f31aa2ed5871c.gif

    Day 7 ECM - perhaps just cleared south enough to prevent a total washout like the 12z last night. Anyone have the corresponding ppn charts? ?

    Cover your eyes same story highest rainfall totals increased to 100-110mm but further south. Real danger of flooding if this turns out next week. Bonkers! .

    433D4D2F-6EBC-440D-9DD6-B446C7BCF309.thumb.png.d50066e9062e91acabe1ba5b16cc4518.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
    1 minute ago, Daniel* said:

    Cover your eyes same story highest rainfall totals increased to 100-110mm but further south. Real danger of flooding if this turns out next week. Bonkers! .

    433D4D2F-6EBC-440D-9DD6-B446C7BCF309.thumb.png.d50066e9062e91acabe1ba5b16cc4518.png

    Ouch. Thought it’d be lower than that!

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    Posted
  • Location: Ward Green barnsley
  • Weather Preferences: Snow freezing fog heatwave thunderstorm
  • Location: Ward Green barnsley
    9 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

    Ouch. Thought it’d be lower than that!

    Never gonna happen. Be middle ground. Not one model as got a grip what's gonna happen. Get ready for a bumpy ride this evening. Watch gfs be correct lol

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Worcester
  • Location: Near Worcester
    2 minutes ago, weathermadbarnsleylad said:

    Never gonna happen. Be middle ground. Not one model as got a grip what's gonna happen. Get ready for a bumpy ride this evening. Watch gfs be correct lol

    Iy happened in 2012 and 2007 - it could easily do so again.

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    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
    14 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

    Cover your eyes same story highest rainfall totals increased to 100-110mm but further south. Real danger of flooding if this turns out next week. Bonkers! .

    433D4D2F-6EBC-440D-9DD6-B446C7BCF309.thumb.png.d50066e9062e91acabe1ba5b16cc4518.png

    Gosh, just checked the daily ECM rainfall charts, next Friday until the following Monday are like a monsoon! Even Scotland isn't completely spared. 

    Now, don't anyone, ANYONE, dare say "If only it were January" 

    Oops I think I just did ;)

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    Posted
  • Location: Ward Green barnsley
  • Weather Preferences: Snow freezing fog heatwave thunderstorm
  • Location: Ward Green barnsley

    It's just extremely unlikely. If it does questions need to be answered about still building on flood plains and climate change. 

     

    Ps sorry mods. 

    Its model discussion I know.. 

    Edited by weathermadbarnsleylad
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    Posted
  • Location: Ward Green barnsley
  • Weather Preferences: Snow freezing fog heatwave thunderstorm
  • Location: Ward Green barnsley
    5 minutes ago, MikeC53 said:

    Iy happened in 2012 and 2007 - it could easily do so again.

    Flooding is 2007 destroyed a lot of peoples homes and livelihoods up here in Yorkshire. Pray to God ecm precipitation chart is wrong. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Ward Green barnsley
  • Weather Preferences: Snow freezing fog heatwave thunderstorm
  • Location: Ward Green barnsley
    13 hours ago, Allseasons-si said:

    About 20:45>.

    in 15 mins aprox.

    Thanks for replying 

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    Posted
  • Location: Pendle, East Lancashire, North West England
  • Weather Preferences: Not too hot, not too cold
  • Location: Pendle, East Lancashire, North West England

    Looks like another cold start to June and looks to be going on for a few more days sadly. This cold weather in June seems to be more common these days, though June 2018 was nice.

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    Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

    Saturday 6 June, update for 500 mb anomaly charts

    So to have another look to see if things have settled into a 3 model agreement-well one can hope!

    Ec-gfs this morning and sure enough another version from them, both similar. The ridge off Europe is still there but the trough/cut off upper low is more dominant, ec has it just south of the country with gfs to the wsw!

    So to noaa 6-10 first; the trough is more marked, swinging se from se Greenland towards nw Iberia, the contour slight ridging ne of this is there along with mfairly marked +ve heights, so all this alters the 500 flow into the uk, now atalntic based but from a s’ly point.

    Essentially we have 2 very similar charts and one not a million miles away but not the same in some aspects.The 8-14 shows similar to the 6-10.

     

    Overall then a change from our current upper pattern with the very marked upper cut off low sitting over and just east of the uk.

    Looking at the 00z GFS 500 mb prediction, which takes this as a cut off feature into the north Med with an upper ridge swinging in from the west in the 120h period, with a sharpening upper trough swinging in behind it, then all this is possible with the predicted 500 mb anomaly charts. It will be warmer but not that settled in my view. Interesting to see just what happens once this coldish unsettled weather moves away.

    http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
    14 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

    Gosh, just checked the daily ECM rainfall charts, next Friday until the following Monday are like a monsoon! Even Scotland isn't completely spared. 

    Now, don't anyone, ANYONE, dare say "If only it were January" 

    Oops I think I just did ;)

    Thankfully at that range precipitation charts are next to useless so at this stage, it’s nothing to worry or depress over yet.  Less settled than previous weeks looks rather likely for the foreseeable yes, but to what extent is yet unknown due to complexities within the modelling with regards to any cut of low that may emerge to the south of us.  Slight micro scale changes to intensity and positioning will have rather large impacts on surface conditions seen.

    Admittedly, the south could do with a bit of rain, it’s been very dry around these here parts over the last couple of months.  Just not quite as much as what the EC currently forecasts.

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    Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester

    Gfs you stubborn git!!i just hope it has trumped the ecm and ukmo!!and by the way is that a move towards the gfs from ukmo this morning!!never thought i be waking up to that!?

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    Posted
  • Location: west yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: extreme weather
  • Location: west yorkshire

    Well if the ecm is close to the mark here we should all start to build an ark. Those rainfall totals are horrendous. I see the gfs is still like a dog with a bone. Really wish someone would put it out of its misery. Looking highly unlikely we will see a flaming June this year. Looks from Tuesday next week it’s rain rain rain. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
    5 minutes ago, terrier said:

    Well if the ecm is close to the mark here we should all start to build an ark. Those rainfall totals are horrendous. I see the gfs is still like a dog with a bone. Really wish someone would put it out of its misery. Looking highly unlikely we will see a flaming June this year. Looks from Tuesday next week it’s rain rain rain. 

    Ridiculous hyperbole to write off the whole month based on one run!

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    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex

    However, I fear the GFS may be about to cave in . . .

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    Posted
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Hot and Sunny but not opressive
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey

    Yay Go Icon , Go team GFS and icon . ?

    04C5C89B-F3AB-484C-B176-68D882CED9C5.png

    0F1251C4-9BDC-4B7A-98B1-D69150BDE39A.jpeg

    Edited by Mark wheeler
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    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
    2 minutes ago, Mark wheeler said:

    Yay Go Icon , Go team GFS and icon . ?

    04C5C89B-F3AB-484C-B176-68D882CED9C5.png

    Embarrassing GFS backtrack currently in progress on the 6z.

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    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
    4 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

    However, I fear the GFS may be about to cave in . . .

    Yes,it's about to drop the trough

    here at 90 v's 00z 96.

    gfs-0-90.thumb.png.c086aa07a52327cbba7c5ca33bc19bfa.pnggfs-0-96.thumb.png.fe63a9ead5cbf57acd10cc511fdaead4.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester

    Gfs goes the ecm route and slides the low!!!dont mind it even looking like ukmo in the end!!but one things for sure what a sham of a model!!

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    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
    Just now, sheikhy said:

    Gfs goes the ecm route and slides the low!!!dont mind it even looking like ukmo in the end!!but one things for sure what a sham of a model!!

    It should be unplugged - permanently.

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    Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
    Just now, Djdazzle said:

    It should be unplugged - permanently.

    To be wrong at 2 or 3 days out is just not on!!!

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth

    Bit of a stand-off this morning and some of the most incredible differences I've seen model watching in 20years now. 

    GFS is like a dog with a bone on the more settled option, it makes almost nothing of the trough, doesn't even think about it, so its drier and milder in the medium term and strongly supported by its ensembles. ECM however is also like a dog with bone, albeit a very different sized and shaped bone, wants to make more of the trough disrupting it, this disruption appears to entangle, warmer, moisture air into it from the continent turning it into a rainmaker, with little steering fronts are slow moving and dump bundles of rain. I cant remember the synoptics from 2007 but feel likes this is probably a pretty similar scenario to the main flooding event of that summer?

    UKMO sort of seems like a half way house after backing down from a very unsettled scenario, is this the correct solution of will head to GFS or ECM, sense dictates it being the middle ground its now a safe bet. 

    ICON pick of the bunch and similar to the top end GFS ensembles while GEM seems to be in a bit of pickle this morning offering a much messier scenario with a little more oomph from the Jet and then a big big mid Atlantic trough. 

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Hot and Sunny but not opressive
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
    5 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

    Embarrassing GFS backtrack currently in progress on the 6z.

    Yes , Well my post was valid for all of 2 mins ?

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