Jump to content
Cold?
Local
Radar
Snow?

Model Output Discussion - Into Summer 2020.


Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    Probably a good point to call it a day and see what the 00z says. The trouble will be at day 4 by then, perhaps we will get a better handle on things. Will gfs fall into line? An amazing ukmo flip? 
    See you all tomorrow! ?

    • Like 7
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Spotted a post you think may be an issue? Please help the team by reporting it.
    • Replies 3k
    • Created
    • Last Reply

    Top Posters In This Topic

    Top Posters In This Topic

    Popular Posts

    These sort of comments are ridiculous if I may say so 10 days into meteorological summer, really!

    The upcoming period has been well advertised, as a changeable flatter downstream spell of weather, and for the forthcoming period at least, the pattern stays amplified across the Pacific c/o low frequ

    That is a somewhat parochial assessment if I may say so.    As posted recently, these numerical model products derive data from some of the algorithms used in what is called the Global Synoptic Dynami

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    I think there are encouraging signs from tonight’s ECM 12z ensemble mean regarding a return to warmer weather, the ensemble spread means there is bound to be some dilution to any very warm signal but even so, the uppers (850’s) do warm through and following this current autumnal feeling spell, a gradual return to something more summer-like would seem quite a reasonable bet as we head towards mid June onwards?!??

    84CA6F86-3B7C-4187-A6E9-80C550DAE7AE.thumb.gif.949806610bd1f39192d47119a7aa6097.gif63F80E65-4871-4BEC-BA5A-EE1455AFA023.thumb.gif.a240e5fb15a8ae12fd0cf238c97deb90.gif80467ADC-1A57-49EF-A411-104119AEF991.thumb.gif.26920f84323e9d0f4687b3ff409b6e82.gifA8BC5FD2-5C11-4988-B115-D4AF47642B41.thumb.gif.5fab1b0fc0fd8a67d914c040039064bf.gif2D39DA1C-05F6-4878-BA3A-9BE1D4CC016B.thumb.gif.69e52478b20358c53d522f33ee9f3c56.gif229D17F1-3FD5-4B04-8EB3-652A2F7780BB.thumb.jpeg.c36492178b805a110e1263ec769d10b0.jpeg

     

    • Like 4
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Ireland - East Coast
  • Location: Ireland - East Coast
    40 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

    Erm

    77D79B25-8AA9-4FC1-833F-D53039C96105.thumb.png.60a386a56587476d6d5eca44c63f1b1b.png

    lol, ah well I may have been too focused on my own parched garden, apologies. That does look bad all right. But it’s not certain, we shall see, or maybe sea in fact.

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
    5 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

    The latest from cpc is still looking good here folks and is pretty much the same as last evening's but a slight difference with the trough placement,it is further SW instead of south of the UK so that in turn will be warmer and dryer but would still have the threat of some imports in terms of storm potential

    610day_03.thumb.gif.e6ef6ffd8febaa1b1b86ef09f431be1e.gif814day_03.thumb.gif.f3764955c93820e87e07d8cdce1adf67.gif

    a look at the De-built ecm ens(based in Holland),i use these to determine if we get a warm continental flow or not

    temps,dew points and wind direction

    eps_pluim_tt_06260.thumb.png.52829181bc9d5891df847768266b107b.pngeps_pluim_td_06260.thumb.png.aa1722a1a8a3702154ee8ddb9700f446.pngeps_pluim_dd_06260.thumb.png.3c32b4ed192c1745e8157fa2ac69c56e.png

    and as you can see that there is quiet a few of those members going for 30c with dew points going on for 15+ and the wind direction of 0-45 degrees is south/southeast 

    so looking above,the extended is still looking rosy,with a chance of thunderstorms☀️?️

     

     

    Sorry but just a minor point 045 degrees is NE'ly not SE'ly.

    • Like 2
    • Thanks 3
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Hot and Sunny but not opressive
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey

    Never fear Navgem is here 

    D614AA6C-1799-4E1B-B22F-3A4C809B924F.jpeg

    322FD7EE-4E59-4AA5-AF3E-CB8FC47FDAF8.png

    Edited by Mark wheeler
    • Like 3
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
    2 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

    Sorry but just a minor point 045 degrees is NE'ly not SE'ly.

    Sorry John,you are right,i am not still in winter mode,i promise.

    i will edit.

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
    5 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

    If its of any consolation Icon once again follows gfs!!no diving low!!

    And at 120

    icon-0-120.thumb.png.681e5247b59979ca13b317d7973ac498.png

    i wonder if that tropical storm in the GoM is creating havoc with the models?

    • Like 4
    • Thanks 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Bedford, 30m asl
  • Location: Bedford, 30m asl
    2 hours ago, Mike Poole said:

    Day 6:

    image.thumb.jpg.3604377eb8aa78c1a84f00d20788aeb9.jpg

    Day 10:

    image.thumb.jpg.61ff19c197db73f1ad026f14161dfe00.jpg

    For 0z runs.

    You know you need to sort your shh...tuff out when you’re behind the GEM at both day 6 and 10.

    Incidentally, how many times in winter are we praying for a trough to drop SEwards, only for it carry on eastwards to our north.

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
    6 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

    And at 120

    icon-0-120.thumb.png.681e5247b59979ca13b317d7973ac498.png

    i wonder if that tropical storm in the GoM is creating havoc with the models?

    One can only dream gfs is right lol!!!if the ecm and ukmo show same tomorrow but gfs sticks to its guns i really will be speechless!!

    • Like 3
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Chapmanslade, Wiltshire + Charente, France
  • Location: Chapmanslade, Wiltshire + Charente, France
    1 hour ago, JON SNOW said:

     following this current autumnal feeling spell,

     

     

    Surely you mean 'cooler Spring like' rather than Autumnal. Considering October is usually warmer than May and the current day length, it is nothing like Autumn.

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
    4 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

    Is that trough not dropping on the gfs!!my god the drama!!!!this is unreal?

    Nope,at 90.

    gfs-0-90.thumb.png.38818c4c87141a1b16d4410a2a627765.png

    i said last night that i would give it at 72 then crunch time.

    Edited by Allseasons-si
    • Like 3
    • Thanks 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
    1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:

    Nope,at 90.

    gfs-0-90.thumb.png.38818c4c87141a1b16d4410a2a627765.png

    This is amazing to watch the trough has not dropped what so ever!!as a weather enthusiast it really does not get anymore better than this!!!96 hours in and gfs still has the high pushing in!

    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
    1 minute ago, sheikhy said:

    This is amazing to watch the trough has not dropped what so ever!!as a weather enthusiast it really does not get anymore better than this!!!96 hours in and gfs still has the high pushing in!

    I know,it's crazy

    is knocker on vacation in America at the gfs control center with his red crayons lol

    sorry knocker?

    model watching in the morning is going to be crazy i tell ya.

    • Like 1
    • Thanks 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

    Nowhere near as robust looking as the 12z run but infinitely 'better' than the UKMO and ECM

    image.thumb.png.6f7c28f81e8ab5dad86f11bcdbade1c0.png

    • Like 3
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
    Just now, sheikhy said:

    Trough swallowed within the main low by 126 hours!!high pressure all over the uk lol!

    It develops the trough further west down the eastern north sea/western Scandinavia than the 12z so that is a westward correction,it's trying to play catch up and by the morning it will have further corrections west.

    18z v's 12z

    gfs-0-138.thumb.png.d5be801a1d9406c0c59cd98e1c931716.pnggfs-0-144.thumb.png.f79aa70d6f4ee3d6d264db29a211bdd7.png

    • Like 4
    • Thanks 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
    Just now, Allseasons-si said:

    It develops the trough further west down the eastern north sea/western Scandinavia than the 12z so that is a westward correction,it's trying to play catch up and by the morning it will have further corrections west.

    18z v's 12z

    gfs-0-138.thumb.png.d5be801a1d9406c0c59cd98e1c931716.pnggfs-0-144.thumb.png.f79aa70d6f4ee3d6d264db29a211bdd7.png

    It has certainly inched more towards the troughing scenario.

    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
    3 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

    It develops the trough further west down the eastern north sea/western Scandinavia than the 12z so that is a westward correction,it's trying to play catch up and by the morning it will have further corrections west.

    18z v's 12z

    gfs-0-138.thumb.png.d5be801a1d9406c0c59cd98e1c931716.pnggfs-0-144.thumb.png.f79aa70d6f4ee3d6d264db29a211bdd7.png

    Isnt that a seperate trough though not the iceland one?

    • Thanks 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
    11 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

    Isnt that a seperate trough though not the iceland one?

    It is and isn't,it partially breaks off the Icelandic one here circled.

    gfs-0-114.thumb.png.a4d64ec0fae6aa5b6b896d9cabfcb253.png 

    but like you say,the main Icelandic one earlier in the run doesn't drop,i have an headache?

    Edited by Allseasons-si
    • Like 2
    • Thanks 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Guest
    This topic is now closed to further replies.
    ×
    ×
    • Create New...