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Model Output Discussion - Into Summer 2020.


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These sort of comments are ridiculous if I may say so 10 days into meteorological summer, really!

The upcoming period has been well advertised, as a changeable flatter downstream spell of weather, and for the forthcoming period at least, the pattern stays amplified across the Pacific c/o low frequ

That is a somewhat parochial assessment if I may say so.    As posted recently, these numerical model products derive data from some of the algorithms used in what is called the Global Synoptic Dynami

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Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester

    If we thought the weather was wet last few days well its nothing like what the ecm is forecasting for england and wales from wednesday next week!!plenty of rain for all of england and wales!!i mean ecm and ukmo could still be wrong but if i was a betting man i most certainly would not be putting any money on gfs at all now!!the best thing about this is we know the gfs is gona backtrack and just watchin it implode over the next few runs shall once again be quite something!!

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  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heatwaves and electrical storms, and fidgid Arctic type winters
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
    4 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

    bbc on tv, just gone for into next week, mainly dry, cool with light winds, won't be mainly dry on UKMO or EC

    I think we need to hold our horses a little here.. Predictions are being made on the back of a couple of op runs.. We don't see the UKMO ensembles and we still haven't seen the ECM ens just yet.. One swallow does not a summer make!! 

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    The BBC extended forecasts in the evening use the 00z charts anyway - so I’ve noticed. Usually the ECM more than anything else too.

    Edit - just watched it....basically the ecm 00z run. So yep, out of date.

    Edited by mb018538
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    Posted
  • Location: Ireland - East Coast
  • Location: Ireland - East Coast
    5 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

    If we thought the weather was wet last few days well its nothing like what the ecm is forecasting for england and wales from wednesday next week!!plenty of rain for all of england and wales!!i mean ecm and ukmo could still be wrong but if i was a betting man i most certainly would not be putting any money on gfs at all now!!the best thing about this is we know the gfs is gona backtrack and just watchin it implode over the next few runs shall once again be quite something!!

    To be frank with you and leaving aside the chaotic runs lately, this ECM won’t be all that wet. Shallow low and not a cold one. Might get some thunderstorms mixed in. Could be a lot worse. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heatwaves and electrical storms, and fidgid Arctic type winters
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level

    Had to laugh folks... Ignore GFS in future... Even the NASA model was closer to the mark.. ?

    geos-0-144.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)

    ECM mean at 120 going for the trough to drop down the UK.

    EDM1-120.thumb.gif.16f3d18b956d90487fc9ee6d1e511546.gif

    but looking like an improvement after that

    EDM1-144.thumb.gif.401f7ce609a5c21b71c40a021c50d440.gif

    EDM1-168.thumb.gif.e3a3efae85e5209a60467bacb90a59ec.gif

    EDM1-192.thumb.gif.72333f49a9597696a9676f29a5d5e878.gif

    EDM1-216.thumb.gif.9f4aaf8a11cfca872a1ca4e4bb09dd2a.gif

    EDM1-240.thumb.gif.97293df009f8dc88a191e8e956024db8.gif

    Edited by Allseasons-si
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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

    Not sure ECM mean is wholly going with the consensus, the plot thickens, T144 and T240:

    image.thumb.jpg.cd714b044ab4a93aad1195c0f9e2db04.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.71d63c99d43a5e167fdfbfff2da5801b.jpg

    Lot of averaging into play on the latter chart, I think.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    1 minute ago, MATT☀️ said:

    Had to laugh folks... Ignore GFS in future... Even the NASA model was closer to the mark.. ?

    geos-0-144.png

    You've nae been talking with Doris Stokes again, have you, Matt??‍♀️:shok:

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    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

    Well, what to make of this:

    EDM1-144.GIF?05-0  EEM1-144.GIF?05-0

    That is extremely high variation in the ensembles. Can anyone ever remember such a spread at just T144? I'd guess that's because there is still a massive split between the models which put the trough over the UK (possibly slightly to the SW) and the models which take high pressure through the UK and beef up the Icelandic trough.

    Amazingly, more agreement on the T216 chart:

    EDM1-216.GIF?05-0  EEM1-216.GIF?05-0

    Which puts the UK in the dodgy zone, could be hot and dry, could be less warm and wet.

    By the way, someone mentioned it earlier, but the ECM op run was astonishingly wet for central areas, with over 4 inches of rain in just a few days for some places. Exactly what can happen if the trough gets stuck in the wrong place. 

     

    Edited by Man With Beard
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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heatwaves and electrical storms, and fidgid Arctic type winters
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level

    It's warming up for sure, but not what I would call very settled in the mid term anyway. 

    graphe0_00_262_88___.png

    graphe1_00_262_88___.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)

    Erm,it ain't bad at all..

    the ECM ens 850's and pressure.

    my local and London

    graphe_ens3_idm7.thumb.png.566b78bfdfab54f44df0d46ffc6a3763.pnggraphe1_00_266_26___.thumb.png.0bc2ac5e6018b2bf1835cf03ede6ac19.png

    graphe_ens3_kkf1.thumb.png.2901993d9bbcdf315b575f25cd6b75d0.pnggraphe1_00_313_143___.thumb.png.bc3985a2d816c5ac6eef614ca6b683db.png

    although there is a marked pressure drop esp London probably due to the trough over the south of the UK.

    Edit:snap MATT

    Edited by Allseasons-si
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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
    1 minute ago, MATT☀️ said:

    It's warming up for sure, but not what I would call very settled in the mid term anyway. 

    graphe0_00_262_88___.png

    graphe1_00_262_88___.png

    588B0599-74BA-4700-8DB6-3FCA93ED074F.thumb.png.500cf28156103be4105b765e89dca730.png

    Also very pessimistic on the 500mb heights - probably going unsettles, but not as bad as the op run.

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Worcester
  • Location: Near Worcester
    31 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

    If we thought the weather was wet last few days well its nothing like what the ecm is forecasting for england and wales from wednesday next week!!plenty of rain for all of england and wales!!i mean ecm and ukmo could still be wrong but if i was a betting man i most certainly would not be putting any money on gfs at all now!!the best thing about this is we know the gfs is gona backtrack and just watchin it implode over the next few runs shall once again be quite something!!

    Yes, I think as was said this morning if it can go wrong for the UK it will. As warmth never gets to build it just means slow moving rain bands for several days with some incredible totals possible for Central areas. Note that later on the ECM mean is even worse than the OP.

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
    24 minutes ago, Downburst said:

    To be frank with you and leaving aside the chaotic runs lately, this ECM won’t be all that wet. Shallow low and not a cold one. Might get some thunderstorms mixed in. Could be a lot worse. 

    Erm

    77D79B25-8AA9-4FC1-833F-D53039C96105.thumb.png.60a386a56587476d6d5eca44c63f1b1b.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
    1 minute ago, mb018538 said:

    588B0599-74BA-4700-8DB6-3FCA93ED074F.thumb.png.500cf28156103be4105b765e89dca730.png

    Also very pessimistic on the 500mb heights - probably going unsettles, but not as bad as the op run.

    Looks a big outlier from daya 5 to 8 with how low the pressure gets!!maybe we can salvage something out of this still!

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Worcester
  • Location: Near Worcester
    2 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

    Erm

    77D79B25-8AA9-4FC1-833F-D53039C96105.thumb.png.60a386a56587476d6d5eca44c63f1b1b.png

    Yes, for here it brings back the dreadful prospect of another 2012.

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    Thanks for posting that @Daniel*


    I know @Alderc cops some stick for being a doom monger, but his thoughts/opinions on the op run were spot on tonight. It isn’t warm, it’s just cloudy with slow or non moving bands of rain getting stuck in the same place for days on end leading to 75-100mm of rain in a week in a large chunk of the country. Flooding inevitable from that sort of set up. 

    Low pressure is fine, but if it gets stuck like that op run then it won’t be pleasant. Thankfully it’s on the extreme side!

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    Posted
  • Location: manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Summer & Winter
  • Location: manchester

    JMA not looking good.. UK is underneath the deepest blue blob on the top left. 

    jma crap.JPG

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Worcester
  • Location: Near Worcester
    1 minute ago, mb018538 said:

    Thanks for posting that @Daniel*


    I know @Alderc cops some stick for being a doom monger, but his thoughts/opinions on the op run were spot on tonight. It isn’t warm, it’s just cloudy with slow or non moving bands of rain getting stuck in the same place for days on end leading to 75-100mm of rain in a week in a large chunk of the country. Flooding inevitable from that sort of set up. 

    Low pressure is fine, but if it gets stuck like that op run then it won’t be pleasant. Thankfully it’s on the extreme side!

    Yes well done to Chris and a few others - the old maxim of the worst outcome for the UK - even if the chances look very slim from all model possibilities - lands again whether it is winter or summer.

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth
    1 minute ago, mb018538 said:

    Thanks for posting that @Daniel*


    I know @Alderc cops some stick for being a doom monger, but his thoughts/opinions on the op run were spot on tonight. It isn’t warm, it’s just cloudy with slow or non moving bands of rain getting stuck in the same place for days on end leading to 75-100mm of rain in a week in a large chunk of the country. Flooding inevitable from that sort of set up. 

    Low pressure is fine, but if it gets stuck like that op run then it won’t be pleasant. Thankfully it’s on the extreme side!

    Thanks - Only a doom monger because have serious SAD issue. The thought of cloud and rain in summer is just horrific. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
    12 minutes ago, MikeC53 said:

    Yes, for here it brings back the dreadful prospect of another 2012.

    No I don't think it does, 

    Break, internet lapse

    And seen your latest post. What is the point, this stuff hasn't even come close to happening, given uncertainty, and even if it did it would most likely be a glancing low that might give some thundery potential, some heavy rain, or significant heat.  Can we wait and see, please? 

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Worcester
  • Location: Near Worcester
    1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

    No I don't think it does, 

    Break, internet lapse

    And seen your latest post. What is the point, this stuff hasn't even come close to happening, given uncertainty, and even if it did it would most likely be a glancing low that might give some thundery potential, some heavy rain, or significant heat.  Can we wait and see, please? 

    Mike I'm just taking the UKMO/ECM at face value, the trough is trapped within the high pressure areas around - starting at just T96. There is nowhere for it to go, hence the ECM rain totals which are a disaster for low lying areas in the red and orange areas shown in the image posted.

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    Posted
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
  • Weather Preferences: Gales, T-storms, Heavy Rain, Heat, Cold - Love it all.
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.

    A lot of unnecessary posts creeping in here. This thread is for discussing the models, not bickering. If you want to do that, take it to private messaging.

    Thanks.

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    Posted
  • Location: Tamworth, Staffordshire (83m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Heat, Thunderstorms, Snow
  • Location: Tamworth, Staffordshire (83m ASL)

    GFS has said no to the popular outcome sought after in winter (cold) many times. We all say or think come on GFS you are looking silly now just give up, it wont come off as shown, we will get the cold.

    Maybe GFS being stoic this time is the same. Or of course, murphys law suggests that because we want the hot outcome it will be wrong this time.

    When we want an easterly in Winter though we would want a trough to drop south through the country, no? If this GFS was happening right now we would have azores scandi link up and would have lost the first bite of the cherry/ first oppurtunity!

    Edited by Paceyboy
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