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Model Output Discussion - Into Summer 2020.


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Posted
  • Location: Ward Green barnsley
  • Weather Preferences: Snow freezing fog heatwave thunderstorm
  • Location: Ward Green barnsley

    All the dire posts in here. I'm not 100% sure this is done and dusted yet. Does gfs no more than the others. If high pressure is still showing to build on the pub run and the ens follow. I'm trusting the gfs this time. Just a feeling its correct. 

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    These sort of comments are ridiculous if I may say so 10 days into meteorological summer, really!

    The upcoming period has been well advertised, as a changeable flatter downstream spell of weather, and for the forthcoming period at least, the pattern stays amplified across the Pacific c/o low frequ

    That is a somewhat parochial assessment if I may say so.    As posted recently, these numerical model products derive data from some of the algorithms used in what is called the Global Synoptic Dynami

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, warm/hot plumes, snow, anything severe
  • Location: Bedfordshire

    Tell you what, I wouldn't mind any of these if they were to come off! Get in the oven!! ☀️?

    18_246_2mtmpmax.thumb.png.7fb273fa10a7742dd81c989198c18b09.png   18_270_2mtmpmax.thumb.png.587718bba2293752663c788dd7579fe4.png   18_294_2mtmpmax.thumb.png.0fade2b0d6cf9c2e09c9ee2082402b7e.png   gens-7-0-276.thumb.png.57352be7b2c05c57ae36885dec050b99.png    gens-18-0-252.thumb.png.a6be81ca3659aa8b8e7715961d76aca1.png   7_246_2mtmpmax.thumb.png.e1b12b256e944f06150ba330f1f9eea3.png  gens-18-1-276.thumb.png.d4bb38cd67989aaa5ecd0680d5d83a88.png

    Edited by Zak M
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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
    2 minutes ago, Alderc said:

    Does the ECM show supressed temps all week? YES

    Does the ECM show several round of slow moving fronts draped across central England? YES

    Does the ECM again show spot totals of 100mm, and 60-90MM across a large area? YES

    I don't make this stuff up. 

    No you don't, to be fair,  but you certainly post it more when it is in the output?

    Edited by Mike Poole
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    Posted
  • Location: East Ham, London
  • Location: East Ham, London

    Evening all ?

    A cool if not cold day here in downtown East London - certainly more April than June but it's hardly unusual even if it is a notch unseasonal.

    So to tonight's ramblings from the models and we'll try T+168 tonight for a change as going out to T+240 gives one or two a fit of the vapours:

    Tonight's running order: - GFS Control, GFS OP, GEM and ECM (still sizzling):

    image.thumb.png.fab932dafd95ed404b56b6c1c542be2d.pngimage.thumb.png.e9ece04d6a2c77df19b2178dd7e3d6ff.pngimage.thumb.png.ab39de871a1e57824b093005e6ad670f.pngimage.thumb.png.b878d9b3f9ad760fdc84ddace4252e6b.png

    There's a clear division - the American model has gone for a much more settled approach with a ridge from the Azores and Scandinavian HP cells crossing the British Isles keeping most parts fine and dry. GEM and ECM are rather different. Both have heights more to the north than the NE and have a much more influential European trough much closer to the south of Britain. GEM's LP is a bit deeper but a bit further away than the ECM feature but both would keep the south of England cloudy with a risk of rain, showers or storms though perhaps the worst of the conditions reserved for the Channel Islands.

    Further into FI (T+384 takes us to June 20th), Control maintains the standing pattern of northern heights and the Azores HP trying to ridge NE to the NW of Scotland with pressure low over Europe and a weak NE'ly air flow over the British Isles. OP goes a slightly different pattern which is heights to the NE and SW and lower pressure to the NW and SE with the British Isles in a col (or stuck in the middle if you prefer).

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    Posted
  • Location: East Ham, London
  • Location: East Ham, London
    1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

    No you don't, to be fair,  but you certainly post it more when it is in the output?

    There are plenty who only post charts showing fine and hot weather.

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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heatwaves and electrical storms, and fidgid Arctic type winters
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level

    Things get worse for the USA.. what with the covid handling and now the riots, add GFS to that calamity of affairs... I've said for ages it ranks behind UKMO ECM and GEM... its not a farce though as some would let you believe.. Firstly it does look like warming up, and potentially some potent showers in the mix too.. Secondly Exter did say the 3rd week of June before more widely settled.. Thing is it what was mid month the other day, before you know it... 1st week of July... I think you get where I'm going with this.. ?Hey guys its only weather, we will get plenty of chances for more cracking Summer conditions. 

    Anyway more importantly when do the tanning salons open again.. Your guaranteed one then... ??

    tenor-22.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    2 minutes ago, Alderc said:

    Does the ECM show supressed temps all week? YES

    Does the ECM show several round of slow moving fronts draped across central England? YES

    Does the ECM again show spot totals of 100mm, and 60-90MM across a large area? YES

    I don't make this stuff up. 

    No, you simply select whichever model is 'predicting' the worst outcome, and make a 'forecast' based solely on that outcome...Could it be, you know, that none of the computer models will get this 100% correct??

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
    3 minutes ago, weathermadbarnsleylad said:

    All the dire posts in here. I'm not 100% sure this is done and dusted yet. Does gfs no more than the others. If high pressure is still showing to build on the pub run and the ens follow. I'm trusting the gfs this time. Just a feeling its correct. 

    If GFS is correct I will eat another face mask.  Just worried about the legal position, will I be allowed on the bus for the return journey, if I've eaten it?

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
    3 minutes ago, stodge said:

    There are plenty who only post charts showing fine and hot weather.

    Aye, pot, kettle, fair point, on other side in winter though.

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    Posted
  • Location: Ward Green barnsley
  • Weather Preferences: Snow freezing fog heatwave thunderstorm
  • Location: Ward Green barnsley
    1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

    If GFS is correct I will eat another face mask.  Just worried about the legal position, will I be allowed on the bus for the return journey, if I've eaten it?

    Maybe gfs is wrong. Maybe ecm wrong. I'm. Desperate for more summery weather so maybe a gfs bias. But I'm still going for it to be correct. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
    3 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

    If GFS is correct I will eat another face mask.  Just worried about the legal position, will I be allowed on the bus for the return journey, if I've eaten it?

    U already eaten one? did it taste nice?

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
    7 minutes ago, Alderc said:

    Does the ECM show supressed temps all week? YES

    Does the ECM show several round of slow moving fronts draped across central England? YES

    Does the ECM again show spot totals of 100mm, and 60-90MM across a large area? YES

    I don't make this stuff up. Again to re-iterate I had the cold, I hate snow so no one is willing the models to show something hot and humid more than me - but they are now not with the exception of GFS which looks like a large outlier. 

    Well you've certainly jumped on this run and you clearly believe that everything this one run  from the ECM is showing is going to happen.

    I didn't see you doing the same for the morning runs that were much more impressive?

    Does anyone actually trust the detail of what the op runs are showing after midweek?

    I think we need some perspective.

    I will be very surprised if this run from the ECM is not an outlier.

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    Posted
  • Location: Ward Green barnsley
  • Weather Preferences: Snow freezing fog heatwave thunderstorm
  • Location: Ward Green barnsley
    Just now, weathermadbarnsleylad said:

    Maybe gfs is wrong. Maybe ecm wrong. I'm. Desperate for more summery weather so maybe a gfs bias. But I'm still going for it to be correct. 

    I have just never seen all ens been wrong. Not even 1 goes with the trough scenario. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
    7 minutes ago, stodge said:

    There are plenty who only post charts showing fine and hot weather.

    They seem to be outnumbered at the moment though.

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
    1 minute ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

    U already eaten one? did it taste nice?

    Promised I had to on here, did it virtually as that's the way we do things now.  No sense of taste that way.  Where else did I hear that?

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    Posted
  • Location: East Ham, London
  • Location: East Ham, London

    To throw another spanner in the works, JMA comes along with another evolution at T+192:

    image.thumb.png.c6795628f24d6c1dd6a93650abb7b759.png

    Not bad for fans of warmth oddly enough. The trough dropping to the west encourages height rises to the east and a southerly feed.

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Worcester
  • Location: Near Worcester

    Well fair play to the UKMO, GFS on it's own tonight. Potential for some huge rainfall totals for central England/southern parts of N England especially.

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    Posted
  • Location: Ireland - East Coast
  • Location: Ireland - East Coast

    This is a good global map. Total FI @ 192 hrs, but the low should fill off west Iberia and perhaps we’ll see more Azores pressure building and linking with Scandi post 10 days.   192 first, then 240  next.   

    image.png

    image.png

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    Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

    gfs-0-96.png ECM1-96.GIF gem-0-96.png

    See that low near the south of Greenland at +96?

    The speed of that is crucial. The outcome is extremely sensitive to that, which itself is very sensitive to precise temperature gradients, so all bets are off the table as far as I'm concerned.


    Longer-term, ECM turns into a very messy run, plausibility very low in my opinion. Too many disturbances going on, this interfering with the high pressure across Scandinavia as it looks to build westward. GEM looks far more plausible (not often I say that!) with the trough becoming confined fully southwest of the UK. It may take its time getting there, but early the week after next fits well with the timing of AAM recovery upward.

    Edited by Singularity
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    Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

    J144-21.GIF icon-0-144.png?05-12 gfs-0-144.png

    GFS is not alone among the deterministic models. JMA resembles the ECM 00z. It all hangs in the balance - we're no closer to knowing which way it will go than we were this morning.

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    Posted
  • Location: west yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: extreme weather
  • Location: west yorkshire

    So there we have it the ecm goes with its old mate the ukmo. So next week looks awful copious amounts of rainfall for almost everyone. At least it’s good news for the farmers. Think it’s time the gfs was put out of its misery once and for all. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
    12 minutes ago, weathermadbarnsleylad said:

    Maybe gfs is wrong. Maybe ecm wrong. I'm. Desperate for more summery weather so maybe a gfs bias. But I'm still going for it to be correct. 

    bbc on tv, just gone for into next week, mainly dry, cool with light winds, won't be mainly dry on UKMO or EC

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    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
    9 minutes ago, weathermadbarnsleylad said:

    When does the ECM mean come out??? 

    About 20:45>.

    in 15 mins aprox.

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