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Model Output Discussion - Into Summer 2020.


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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

    What a farce complete agreement in GEFS yes it’s consistently wrong! 

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    These sort of comments are ridiculous if I may say so 10 days into meteorological summer, really!

    The upcoming period has been well advertised, as a changeable flatter downstream spell of weather, and for the forthcoming period at least, the pattern stays amplified across the Pacific c/o low frequ

    That is a somewhat parochial assessment if I may say so.    As posted recently, these numerical model products derive data from some of the algorithms used in what is called the Global Synoptic Dynami

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    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
    1 minute ago, NorthernRab said:

    It hasn't happened yet. Many a time we've seen the GFS right where all other models were wrong and this is one set of runs. Simmer, as we say up here ?

    At 72? Not when there are three other models disagreeing with it.

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    Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester

    Ukmo you absolute beast!!!!!!well done again!!!!useless gfs to come on board later!!!really embarassing moment for this model!!i really dunno why we even waste time with it ive said this before!!but its there for members of the public to view what can you do lol!!ecm aint exactly covered it self in glory either!!!YOU BEAST UKMO!!!

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    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
    1 minute ago, Daniel* said:

    What a farce complete agreement in GEFS yes it’s consistently wrong! 

    Are you backing GFS then?

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
    Just now, Djdazzle said:

    Are you backing GFS then?

    No. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Ireland - East Coast
  • Location: Ireland - East Coast

    Not the deepest of lows and moves smartly off due south Wednesday. FI after  that.  

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    Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
    9 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

    GFS is an embarrassment. The op and all of its members wrong at 72.

    I often wonder why the US spend so much on the GFS and other countries on their own models.

    Surely the far cheaper option would be to pay UKMO and ECMWF for their far superior products.

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
    11 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

    Maybe @Mike Poole can post us the latest verification stats? I’d be interested to know!

    Day 6:

    image.thumb.jpg.3604377eb8aa78c1a84f00d20788aeb9.jpg

    Day 10:

    image.thumb.jpg.61ff19c197db73f1ad026f14161dfe00.jpg

    For 0z runs.

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    Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
    7 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

    What a farce complete agreement in GEFS yes it’s consistently wrong! 

    Honestly daniel i know how your feeling right now!!i really dont understand how a model together with its ensembles can get it so wrong!!and its happened so many times before!!i dunno why we bother with it!!steve murr mentions it always!!ive been following this forum since 1999/2000 and its happened far too many times!!!all models are not 100 percent but to get it wrong at such a short notice you then have to start questioning whether its worth even putting the gfs out there?

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level

    EC brings the easterly at 168...

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Ireland - East Coast
  • Location: Ireland - East Coast

    Yes, not great to see such a large trough out west, but a logical conclusion perhaps as Azores High goes closer to  home.  Surface low to the S west. 

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level

    Its actually a warm Easterly with decent uppers by day 7 and 8.

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
    3 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

    Honestly daniel i know how your feeling right now!!i really dont understand how a model together with its ensembles can get it so wrong!!and its happened so many times before!!i dunno why we bother with it!!steve murr mentions it always!!ive been following this forum since 1999/2000 and its happened far too many times!!!all models are not 100 percent but to get it wrong at such a short notice you then have to start questioning whether its worth even putting the gfs out there?

    My view about this, is it is not about the model, the physics etc. it is about the data initialisation, the algorithms that the various met centres have to determine the position at T0.  That's why the FV3 upgrade (to the op run) made no real difference, it's a better model but the T0 data is still the same.

    To integrate measured data at variously T-60, T-24, T-86, T-36, and form a most likely picture of what the atmosphere looks like at T0 is a very difficult mathematical problem, sometimes called the 'inverse problem'.  

    ECM and UKMO do this properly, and it is difficult, I think it is called 4DVar or something, the fourth dimension being time.  As far as I understand it GFS fudges this process and this is why it will always be catching up.  In other words, the GFS is wrong before the main calculation starts by more than the others.  

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
    27 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

    It’s not wrong....yet ?

    I agree though - would be a major boo boo if it’s this badly wrong. Almost the entire ensemble suite backs the op, and has done for a few runs now.

    I've seen entire GEFS suites flip within 12-24 hours. I don't pay much attention to them anymore.

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    ECM is pure trash tonight, and would just bring rain. Going to bet it’ll be an unsettled outlier, most have the low away from the UK by then.

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    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

    ECM looks convective at days 8&9...loverllly

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    Posted
  • Location: Ireland - East Coast
  • Location: Ireland - East Coast
    1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

    ECM looks convective at days 8&9...loverllly

    Yes and good 850 temps Here with a scandi high forming and low over the Low Countries. Weeds need the rain.?

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    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
    1 minute ago, Downburst said:

    Yes and good 850 temps Here with a scandi high forming and low over the Low Countries. Weeds need the rain.?

    Could be some 'power showers' knocking around on Wednesday too-

    image.thumb.png.c780937d0a08ec976b54e34f07445e96.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth

    Well what a disappointing end to a day that started promisingly. ECM joins the party and produces a dire run, temps mid teens most of next week, maybe high teens if yours, almost completely overcast across much of E+W, very heavy rain, in fact the spot totals of 100mm are back, its a disaster and not really at convective, the precip from the ECM looks mainly slow moving and frontal. 

    Edited by Alderc
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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
    8 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

    I've seen entire GEFS suites flip within 12-24 hours. I don't pay much attention to them anymore.

    I agree. It’s regressed badly. I remember the GEM used to be a joke model....well who’s the joke model now? 4th best for the USA. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
  • Weather Preferences: the weather extremes in general but my favourites are snow & thunderstorms
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
    32 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

    Ukmo you absolute beast!!!!!!well done again!!!!useless gfs to come on board later!!!really embarassing moment for this model!!i really dunno why we even waste time with it ive said this before!!but its there for members of the public to view what can you do lol!!ecm aint exactly covered it self in glory either!!!YOU BEAST UKMO!!!

    Yes but it hasn’t happened yet. I fully expect ukmo to be on the right path but as it hasn’t happened it could still go the other way or any other way

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
    2 minutes ago, Alderc said:

    Well what a disappointing end to a day that started promisingly. ECM joins the party and produces a dire run, temps mid teens most of next week, maybe high teens if yours, almost completely overcast across much of E+W, very heavy rain, in fact the spot totals of 100mm are back, its a disaster and not really at convective, the precip from the ECM looks mainly slow moving and frontal. 

    Oh no...the prophets of doom are back!

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    Posted
  • Location: manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Summer & Winter
  • Location: manchester

    Ecm joining with ukmo & gem for a possible trough being anchored right over UK next week. GFS 18z to come onboard later me thinks. . Hope those who have been begging for "some" rain are happy, your getting your rain plus a whole lot more.  No 2018 this wont be.   

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    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
    17 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

    ECM looks convective at days 8&9...loverllly

    Everyone has there different preferences to the weather but i am with you on this one

    either way it all looks like becoming warmer after mid-late next week anyway once we get this low sinking out of the way,but that's a long way away so lets concentrate on the first hurdle first.

     

    Edited by Allseasons-si
    typo
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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth
    6 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

    Oh no...the prophets of doom are back!

    Does the ECM show supressed temps all week? YES

    Does the ECM show several round of slow moving fronts draped across central England? YES

    Does the ECM again show spot totals of 100mm, and 60-90MM across a large area? YES

    I don't make this stuff up. Again to re-iterate I had the cold, I hate snow so no one is willing the models to show something hot and humid more than me - but they are now not with the exception of GFS which looks like a large outlier. 

    Edited by Alderc
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