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Model Output Discussion - Into Summer 2020.


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Posted
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
  • Weather Preferences: the weather extremes in general but my favourites are snow & thunderstorms
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl

    Non of them are right or wrong as it’s not happened yet, they are just computer models predicting what will happen but generally as far as I’m concerned the ukmo is pretty much on the money imo. More often than not the others slowly come into line with it, yes it’s a bit poo early on but later on it will bring warm humid thundery weather which for me gets a big ?.

    we shall see.....

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    These sort of comments are ridiculous if I may say so 10 days into meteorological summer, really!

    The upcoming period has been well advertised, as a changeable flatter downstream spell of weather, and for the forthcoming period at least, the pattern stays amplified across the Pacific c/o low frequ

    That is a somewhat parochial assessment if I may say so.    As posted recently, these numerical model products derive data from some of the algorithms used in what is called the Global Synoptic Dynami

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heatwaves and electrical storms, and fidgid Arctic type winters
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
    8 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

    GEM is unsettled from day 5 for a good stretch of days as the low doesn’t clear away. Danger of ukmo following suit.

    Yes but only the other day GEM was going all out settled.. Non of these models are covering themselves in much glory these days. I wouldn't be surprised to see ECM follow GFS this evening. Either way this far from a done deal.

    Edited by MATT☀️
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    Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester

    Wow its amazing how many people on this forum are backing ukmo!dunno if thats a psychogical thing cos you feel the worse option will always end up right im not sure!!i am sitting on the fence with this one and gona let the models do the talking!!yes ukmo has trumped all other models before especially when it comes to trough disruption but i thinks its a very tight call right now!!theres been plenty of times where we been in a situation like this and ukmo was wrong?

    Just to add ensembles and control run backing the op solidly again!!but it could be the case where if the op is wrong then the rest of the ensemble suit is wrong as well!!

    Edited by sheikhy
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    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, warm/hot plumes, snow, anything severe
  • Location: Bedfordshire

    12z GEM showing what looks like a plume of some sorts at 228

    gemeuw-0-228.thumb.png.8e05857414db4dc9724c750a1053f7c5.png

    Edited by Zak M
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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    Nice end to the GFS 12Z...But do I 'prefer' it? No, not really. I prefer whichever outcome brings me the best chance of warmth and thunderstorms!:clapping::oldlaugh:

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)

    The gefs ens are still a good set from this time next week and into the following weekend...

    graphe3_1000_268_28___.thumb.png.9c40f3bd63f61132a6f882fb9149d711.png

    I wonder if we would get more amplification in the Atlantic in future runs to send this Icelandic low further west down the west side of the UK?

    that would be a good idea to get some warmth in quicker from the south,hmmm!

     

    Edited by Allseasons-si
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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    image.thumb.png.5f7b80ea7e429b05826a5379b967b065.png
     

    Mean now above 10c on the gfs - the op run actually one of the coolest!

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    Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
    2 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

    image.thumb.png.5f7b80ea7e429b05826a5379b967b065.png
     

    Mean now above 10c on the gfs - the op run actually one of the coolest!

    Amazing set as i mentioned earlier!!ecm coming out in 20 mins!!just look at the agreement on the ensembles!simpy astonishing!

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    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
    16 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

    Amazing set as i mentioned earlier!!ecm coming out in 20 mins!!just look at the agreement on the ensembles!simpy astonishing!

    Tension building as we speak! The jury is deliberating!

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    GEFS 12Z ensembles are indeed good:

    t850Bedfordshire.png    prmslBedfordshire.png

    t2mBedfordshire.png    prcpBedfordshire.png

    So, much as yesterday then: the GFS op is quite a way out on the drier and cooler end of the pack: a good chance of some warm, thundery weather perhaps??

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
    1 minute ago, Djdazzle said:

    ECM looks more like UKMO at 72.

    Trough starting to dive at 96. Here comes UKMO’s partner in crime...

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    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex

    GFS is an embarrassment. The op and all of its members wrong at 72.

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level

    Yes,as expected EC joins UKMO...

    No suprise,hopefully the trough will push through by 168 and we begin to see a warm up..

    Thats my plan !!

    Edited by northwestsnow
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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
    1 minute ago, Djdazzle said:

    GFS is an embarrassment. The op and all of its members wrong at 72.

    It’s not wrong....yet ?

    I agree though - would be a major boo boo if it’s this badly wrong. Almost the entire ensemble suite backs the op, and has done for a few runs now.

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    2 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

    GFS is an embarrassment. The op and all of its members wrong at 72.

    And Nostradamus is alive, well and posting on Net Weather!:oldlaugh:

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    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
    Just now, mb018538 said:

    It’s not wrong....yet ?

    I agree though - would be a major boo boo if it’s this badly wrong. Almost the entire ensemble suite backs the op, and has done for a few runs now.

    Yet - but very likely. I challenge anyone to defend it again - ever. It’s clearly got programming errors.

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
    1 hour ago, Mike Poole said:

    GEM sides with UKMO now at T120:

    image.thumb.jpg.fa1511b2cdea8959d47cb1030fcd915d.jpg

    image.thumb.jpg.169e23feaa24d8c843c1f177e6010321.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.0cef79d55dfdc8b52451a92be340dfa7.jpg

    GFS still has ICON on side, I suppose.

    Adding in ECM to this:

    image.thumb.jpg.6cab88330bb50a249acf4594eaf461db.jpg

    follows UKMO and GEM, what a surprise!  

    Spot the odd one out of the supposed big 4!

    Edited by Mike Poole
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    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
    3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

    Yes,as expected EC joins UKMO...

    No suprise,hopefully the trough will push through by 168 and we begin to see a warm up..

    Thats my plan !!

    GFS 18Z to UKMO idea, by 00Z's full agreement of very wet Wed/Thur, need the low to exit SW, then could recover

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    Posted
  • Location: Inbhir Nis / Inverness - 636 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Freezing fog, frost, snow, sunshine.
  • Location: Inbhir Nis / Inverness - 636 ft asl
    3 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

    GFS is an embarrassment. The op and all of its members wrong at 72.

    It hasn't happened yet. Many a time we've seen the GFS right where all other models were wrong and this is one set of runs. Simmer, as we say up here ?

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    Maybe @Mike Poole can post us the latest verification stats? I’d be interested to know!

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