Model Output Discussion - Into Summer 2020.

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

43 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

I didn’t say I disagreed. It was the “curtain closer on summer” comment that I questioned. As have quite a few others.

The pattern gfs 12z shows is one that can get stuck in its rut as we've seen so many times before, even in Winter they stick like glue. Why I hate solar minimums everything is slow moving and its doomsday when things are in the wrong place. Isnt it La Nina season this summer? Not a good sign for August. 

[Djdazzle]

3 minutes ago, 38.7°C said:

The pattern gfs 12z shows is one that can get stuck in its rut as we've seen so many times before, even in Winter they stick like glue. Why I hate solar minimums everything is slow moving and its doomsday when things are in the wrong place. Isnt it La Nina season this summer? Not a good sign for August. 

I get all of that - but as the saying “one swallow doesn’t make a summer”, one bad op run doesn’t equal a poor summer. Even La Niña and solar minimums don’t guarantee a poor summer.

There is little to suggest that a GFS 12z pattern will become entrenched.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Just now, 38.7°C said:

The pattern gfs 12z shows is one that can get stuck in its rut as we've seen so many times before, even in Winter they stick like glue. Why I hate solar minimums everything is slow moving and its doomsday when things are in the wrong place. Isnt it La Nina season this summer? Not a good sign for August. 

I dont think it's a big player for Summer conditions and from what I've read from the Met it's unlikely to have much factor on the summer... Solar minimums are one of many factors and I wouldn't say they contribute a great deal to a poor summer. In fairness they don't appear to have a great deal of influence on Winter conditions either. The situation we have had over the past 3 months as been Doomsday, the weather not playing ball for  a few days is certainly not. Try not to get to stressed over it mate, things always seem worse when you get anxious over all these model runs.. And bare in mind what you see now can be completely gone within 24hrs..

Enjoy the rest of your evening

[Allseasons-Si]

Aaaannnnd.......the mighty NAVGEM

also that would be great going forward

[Allseasons-Si]

27 minutes ago, 38.7°C said:

The pattern gfs 12z shows is one that can get stuck in its rut as we've seen so many times before, even in Winter they stick like glue. Why I hate solar minimums everything is slow moving and its doomsday when things are in the wrong place. Isnt it La Nina season this summer? Not a good sign for August. 

Doomsday...you are starting to sound like the Daily Express

just kidding mate,yes it's looking unsettled next week but there is growing sign's that things look to improve into week two of next month and don't get hung up on the NWP's  as they are as fickle as they always are past 120>

tonight's cpc 500mb height anomaly's show an improvement from day eight onward's with the Azore's/Atlantic hp cell encroaching from the SW.

so hang on in there mate and lets see how this pans out as we enter July

 

Climate Prediction Center - 6-10 Day 500mb Outlook

ORIGIN.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

 

Edited June 28, 2020 by Allseasons-si
Spellcheck.

[Mike Poole]

ECM mean T168, and T240

For me it is all consistent with an Azores ridge after next week, we will see....

[MATTWOLVES 3]

The mean is keen to extend an High upon the sky..

Edit... Dam Mike your to quick..

Edited June 28, 2020 by MATT☀️

[mb018538]

The mean is just about ok still - but has definitely taken half a step backwards from last night, with a stronger high building in not quite as fancied. A lot will hinge on the development and phasing of the lows next weekend as to what transpires after. Might take a couple of days to really get it sorted.

[Guest]

I think its fair to say the jury is out on the 12z's. Certainly looks like after a poor week to come the Azores high will look to ridge into from the south west however how strongly that occurs is still very much open for debate. Seems like there's 2 main options. 

1. HP moves in, builds strongly and there's potential for a pretty decent warm up i.e. GEM and a decent number of the GFS ensembles and from what I can see a good bunch of the ECM ensembles. 

2.HP moves in, but can't maintain its position and regresses back westwards leaving it warm for a couple of days before low pressure dives down from the north or northwest this is what happens pretty much with the ECM & GFS Ops runs. Pretty sure if the UKMET model went out further it would also do this. 

Think it'll probably be a good 2-3 at minimum before this is sorted out, might take more than one attempt to get some settled in.

One thing is for sure and that is July has treated the south and south east very kindly in the past 7 summers starting 2013. Heathrow in that period is averaging 25.4C, even here in Bournemouth we are averaging 23.6C, which is what the  July max for Heathrow normally is. 

Edited June 28, 2020 by Guest

[johnholmes]

34 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

 

tonight's cpc 500mb height anomaly's show an improvement from day eight onward's with the Azore's/Atlantic hp cell encroaching from the SW.

 

 

Climate Prediction Center - 6-10 Day 500mb Outlook

ORIGIN.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

 

 tonight's cpc 500mb height anomaly's show an improvement from day eight onward's with the Azore's/Atlantic hp cell encroaching from the SW.

 

I don't follow you I am afraid. The signal if there is one is minimal, little more than a 30 DM +ve anomaly above the long term average.

It needs a good deal more than that before we can think in terms of any upper ridge developing and hence the surface ridge.

The main feature on 6-10 and 8-14 is of a westerly flow running into Europe including the UK?

 

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

3 hours ago, General Cluster said:

I'm almost lost for words at this post... but one does spring to mind: nonsense!

i hope i'm wrong! and that we really don't start seeing the good things getting pushed back as this week progresses.. As for the GFS18z it looks much better than the 12z, at least for Central & South UK with the typical N/S divide syndrome in gear.  

[Mark wheeler]

5 hours ago, Allseasons-si said:

Aaaannnnd.......the mighty NAVGEM

also that would be great going forward

Oi Oi and you bring be and joy .

Edited June 29, 2020 by Mark wheeler

[Methuselah]

A bit of a mixed bag from today's GFS 00Z... Not what I'd exactly called 'settled':

    

    

    

    

And a lot of scatter within the ensembles:

    

    

NH profiles:

    

    

[mb018538]

The more the settled weather keeps getting pushed back, the more you worry!

Initially it looked as though Sunday into Monday would see a change in fortunes. Then it was more Monday and maybe Tuesday....on today’s output it doesn’t arrive until Wednesday or Thursday. 

[mountain shadow]

Let's hope the ECM is on the money in the extended with the Azores ridge pushing in. 

The Atlantic still the winner this week it would seem.

[northwestsnow]

14 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Let's hope the ECM is on the money in the extended with the Azores ridge pushing in. 

The Atlantic still the winner this week it would seem.

The timing of any ridge still far from nailed down,or duration of the ridge.

The background 'drivers' probably not conducive to weeks of settled stuff, but hopefully a little more emphasis on ridges as we head into next week.

[Man With Beard]

This morning's ECM ensembles continue to steer in a direction of a N/S split between 5th and 10th July, with the south largely experiencing good weather occasionally interrupted by weak features, but the north experiencing changeable weather with the possibility of more settled weather pushing further north still within the spread.

  

With the Azores High always centred to the SW, no notable heatwave likely, but mid 20s at times for southern and eastern areas, just possibly a day or two in the higher 20s, which isn't actually that bad. The thing is, we've become so accustomed to extreme heatwaves in recent years that such temperatures appear cool! Not at all - it will probably be slightly above average for those south of the Scottish border.

[mb018538]

Well the ensembles are better than the op run:

[NApplewhite]

1 hour ago, Man With Beard said:

This morning's ECM ensembles continue to steer in a direction of a N/S split between 5th and 10th July, with the south largely experiencing good weather occasionally interrupted by weak features, but the north experiencing changeable weather with the possibility of more settled weather pushing further north still within the spread.

  

With the Azores High always centred to the SW, no notable heatwave likely, but mid 20s at times for southern and eastern areas, just possibly a day or two in the higher 20s, which isn't actually that bad. The thing is, we've become so accustomed to extreme heatwaves in recent years that such temperatures appear cool! Not at all - it will probably be slightly above average for those south of the Scottish border.

Very poor weather over the next 10 days across the UK as Low Pressures and the Atlantic dominate. Well below average temperatures this week and next week in North Wales with plenty of overcast skies and intermittent rain. Almost zero sunshine this week. Some hope at +384 hours for a weak ridge. 

Edited June 29, 2020 by NApplewhite

[mushymanrob]

12 hours ago, johnholmes said:

 tonight's cpc 500mb height anomaly's show an improvement from day eight onward's with the Azore's/Atlantic hp cell encroaching from the SW.

 

I don't follow you I am afraid. The signal if there is one is minimal, little more than a 30 DM +ve anomaly above the long term average.

It needs a good deal more than that before we can think in terms of any upper ridge developing and hence the surface ridge.

The main feature on 6-10 and 8-14 is of a westerly flow running into Europe including the UK?

 

But wouldnt that be enough to suggest a slight improvement above the average? so less precip, more sun/brightness , a n/s bias, reasonably pleasant but unsettled ?

[Ice Day]

The 'big three' at 144 show reasonable agreement between UKMO and ECM, with the GFS making more of the low pressure to the north east of Scotland. 

  

That said, the ECM doesn't go on to produce a particularly good run for days 7-10, we're still seeing the Azores trying to push in but does't become established, it all seems a bit mobile at the moment (the Parallel is not dissimilar).  So for the next week it's very much business as usual with the south seeing more in the way of warm and settled weather.  

[MATTWOLVES 3]

1 hour ago, NApplewhite said:

Very poor weather over the next 10 days across the UK as Low Pressures and the Atlantic dominate. Well below average temperatures this week and next week in North Wales with plenty of overcast skies and intermittent rain. Almost zero sunshine this week. Some hope at +384 hours for a weak ridge. 

I'm not sure how you can nail such detail for a 2 week period. Intermittent rain and zeroe sunshine over a 2 week period and perhaps a weak ridge at day 15! You must have access to some better models than me. I'm fairness I'm seeing gradual improvement as early as next Monday. Slowly but surely a ridge building into the SW. 

Edited June 29, 2020 by MATT☀️

[johnholmes]

40 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

But wouldnt that be enough to suggest a slight improvement above the average? so less precip, more sun/brightness , a n/s bias, reasonably pleasant but unsettled ?

I think it was to do with the apparent emphasis of improvement that I felt a bit overdone. As always it is the interpretation of charts which can give differing views. I remain a touch sceptical other than as you suggest a 'slight' lessening of the current weather of this week. I want to see a more solid agreement of all 3, especially NOAA, for some real build of heights from the south.

Just my take on things, you and others may be nearer the mark in your current optimism.

Latest EC-GFS this morning and the NOAA version from last evening are below

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

Climate Prediction Center - 6-10 Day 500mb Outlook

WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

 

 

[mb018538]

Sadly the clusters are also less bullish today.

Most keep things fairly westerly, with the odd ridge coming through to settle things down. Better in the S/E.

 

With positive anomalies close by, some better days will no doubt arise. But I think the big anticyclone we were teased with for a couple of days into the start of next week is becoming more fanciful.
As @johnholmes has said, the NOAA 500mb plots are flat and don’t have any ridge near the UK, so a big rise in pressure doesn’t look likely at this stage.....though this doesn’t rule out some fine weather at times.

[Man With Beard]

20 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Sadly the clusters are also less bullish today.

Most keep things fairly westerly, with the odd ridge coming through to settle things down. Better in the S/E.

 

With positive anomalies close by, some better days will no doubt arise. But I think the big anticyclone we were teased with for a couple of days into the start of next week is becoming more fanciful.
As @johnholmes has said, the NOAA 500mb plots are flat and don’t have any ridge near the UK, so a big rise in pressure doesn’t look likely at this stage.....though this doesn’t rule out some fine weather at times.

Yes there has been a move away from a UK High idea over the past 48 hours - I've tracked the last four cluster sets for 7th July:

      

As you can see, a lot of clusters 36/48 hours ago were bringing the positive anomalies right over the UK, but in the past 12/24 hours we now only see about 40% of members pushing the ridge substantially north.

The clue here is to look for the white bit between the blue negative anomalies to the north (indicative of deeper troughing than usual in that area) and the orange positive anomalies to the south (indicative of stronger ridging than usual in that area). Given that seasonal averages will already expect lower heights to the north and higher heights to the south, what such a pattern indicates is an even bigger contrast between northern trough / southern ridge than usual. This in turn leads to a stronger flow than normal in between the blue and orange areas. Therefore, on the charts above, the narrow white area (where there is no anomaly predicted) will represent a decent westerly flow, and consequently the likelihood of changeable weather as high pressure in situ quickly gets flattened. That's why those seeking settled weather should prefer the stronger orange anomalies to get right through the UK and the white part to be to the north of Scotland, as that gives a better chance of a lesser flow and for high pressure to get established. However, in the charts I've posted one can see a trend for the white part to be further and further south, and now in the most recent chart (the last one posted above) it is generally close enough to the UK to prevent settled conditions getting established in the largest clusters (1 and 2) - clusters 3 and 4 may still suffice for the SE but only at this timeframe.

To cut a long story short then - the south still looks in line for some settled/warm days in the D7-D11 period, but *probably* too much activity coming off the Atlantic for a settled spell to get truly established - while northern areas likely to fewer good days. 

Interesting to see a slight trend to a SW flow just to our west on the final chart too (all clusters this morning have negative anomalies further to the WSW) - this could potentially encourage a further improvement of heights towards the UK between days D10 and D12

The caveat is that ensembles do often oscillate around a theme further out, so the slightly less settled picture of the past 48 hours could be just part of the oscillation, and with 40% of the ensembles still on the more settled side, it's not absolutely clear cut yet.

And the last caveat - I'm probably overanalysing such unclear charts!  detailed analysis of clusters tends to work best when there is a very strong signal, and, though it seemed we might get one 48 hours ago, the signal is far less strong now. 

Edited June 29, 2020 by Man With Beard