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Model Output Discussion - Into Summer 2020.


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18 minutes ago, Zak M said:

168 has the AH ridging into the Atlantic

ECM1-168 (1).gif

Up until 168 hrs, the outlook remains very unsettled and cool, notably so in the north, poor charts for very end of June, start of July.

After 168hrs the models are showing the azores high gaining the upper hand again, which will enable a return to summery conditions away from the far NW.

Much will depend on how cleanly the trough migrates to the east, the chart above shows potential shortwave activity to our NW preventing a clean retreat, and this would allow the low off the eastern USA seaboard to merge with the trough with the azores high scurrying away to the west. Alas, ECM doesn't develop any shortwave and the azores high is allowed to build and move in, with the jet aligned on a SW-NE trajectory.

 

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These sort of comments are ridiculous if I may say so 10 days into meteorological summer, really!

The upcoming period has been well advertised, as a changeable flatter downstream spell of weather, and for the forthcoming period at least, the pattern stays amplified across the Pacific c/o low frequ

That is a somewhat parochial assessment if I may say so.    As posted recently, these numerical model products derive data from some of the algorithms used in what is called the Global Synoptic Dynami

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18 minutes ago, Zak M said:

168 has the AH ridging into the Atlantic

ECM1-168 (1).gif

Up until 168 hrs, the outlook remains very unsettled and cool, notably so in the north, poor charts for very end of June, start of July.

After 168hrs the models are showing the azores high gaining the upper hand again, which will enable a return to summery conditions away from the far NW.

Much will depend on how cleanly the trough migrates to the east, the chart above shows potential shortwave activity to our NW preventing a clean retreat, and this would allow the low off the eastern USA seaboard to merge with the trough with the azores high scurrying away to the west. Alas, ECM doesn't develop any shortwave and the azores high is allowed to build and move in, with the jet aligned on a SW-NE trajectory.

 

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2 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Up until 168 hrs, the outlook remains very unsettled and cool, notably so in the north, poor charts for very end of June, start of July.

After 168hrs the models are showing the azores high gaining the upper hand again, which will enable a return to summery conditions away from the far NW.

Much will depend on how cleanly the trough migrates to the east, the chart above shows potential shortwave activity to our NW preventing a clean retreat, and this would allow the low off the eastern USA seaboard to merge with the trough with the azores high scurrying away to the west. Alas, ECM doesn't develop any shortwave and the azores high is allowed to build and move in, with the jet aligned on a SW-NE trajectory.

 

Saw it the first time :oldlaugh:

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8 hours ago, carinthian said:

Greeting from a warm and sunny Eastern Alps ( makes a change ) Lets brighten up proceedings a bit. Latest GFS showing a similar picture to what ECM was showing this time yesterday at day 10.  Warmth and pressure rises return the Western Europe/British with trough domination back on the cards for Central and Eastern Europe. Think you lot will gleefully hold out for this result but not sure about me . Enjoy the cool fresh breeze for a few days !

Aye, C

GFSOPEU06_240_1.png

Again looks like the ECM run wants to warm up the British Isles by day 10 going by the latest 850mb temp anom chart . A European great divide with trough domination again showing over Central and SE Europe according to the upper flow charts and resulting with some rather large negative 850mb level anomaly temps as seen below.

ECMOPEU12_240_34.png

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11 minutes ago, Sweatyman said:

Fancy posting again? ?

Just to make it very clear to all ?

glorious end to ECM 12z maybe this run is pushing Azores high too NE but looks at least for southern parts we look to see return of real summer from week after next.

B3F323A2-165C-46B8-AAD7-B03D1D0ECFA5.thumb.gif.d7e73d6e12dab669a7c7f546232694c8.gif

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19 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Up until 168 hrs, the outlook remains very unsettled and cool, notably so in the north, poor charts for very end of June, start of July.

After 168hrs the models are showing the azores high gaining the upper hand again, which will enable a return to summery conditions away from the far NW.

Much will depend on how cleanly the trough migrates to the east, the chart above shows potential shortwave activity to our NW preventing a clean retreat, and this would allow the low off the eastern USA seaboard to merge with the trough with the azores high scurrying away to the west. Alas, ECM doesn't develop any shortwave and the azores high is allowed to build and move in, with the jet aligned on a SW-NE trajectory.

 

You can say that again :oldgrin:

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19 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Just to make it very clear to all ?

glorious end to ECM 12z maybe this run is pushing Azores high too NE but looks at least for southern parts we look to see return of real summer from week after next.

B3F323A2-165C-46B8-AAD7-B03D1D0ECFA5.thumb.gif.d7e73d6e12dab669a7c7f546232694c8.gif

Hi Daniel, maybe the warmest temps looking at the longer term forecasts could again migrate to the NW as Scandinavian height rises as being mentioned in some quarters.. Latest ECM charts show quite cool flow on the continent not far from the SE by day 10, but that's a long way off of course. However, a promising trend after next week for you lot in Blighty.

C

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No need to harp on about the next few days, as everyone knows the score.. Now beyond that does look promising, I think the EC46 picked up on this over a week ago and now the means and some of the clusters are showing it quite strongly.. Towards the backend of next Weekend and more especially the following week look pretty good.. Enjoy your evenings ??

EDM1-120.gif

EDM1-144.gif

EDM1-168.gif

EDM1-192.gif

EDM1-216.gif

EDM1-240.gif

tenor-20.gif

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9 hours ago, mb018538 said:

There are a whole host of reasons, and everything in the global circulation is connected!

One reason though is that the Pacific is much bigger (almost 2x the Atlantic size) and more convectively active than the Atlantic Ocean, and this convection can alter the Pacific jet....the ripple downstream can then effect the Atlantic too. So often meteorologists will look in the Pacific basin for changes to change the downstream pattern here.

That's great. Thank you MBO for the reply and good explanation . Much appreciated . 

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I’m not staying up for the pub run tonight, but the 18z ICON gives this at T120:

D7308CF1-673B-45D7-A821-FF86FAB17B55.thumb.png.676ffc4c00ec70bb49119a9658199c56.png

We are so looking at an azores ridge here, it is a question of when, beyond next weekend, when the pubs are open, not saying that is a good thing or a bad thing, just a thing!, should be summer back on track I think! 

Edited by Mike Poole
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These warewolf films really keep me up at night... ?  Icon was a decent run with plenty of Heights in the equation come later in the run.. Good morning to you all.. ?

 

moddeu_20200628_0100_animation.gif

Edited by MATT☀️
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5 hours ago, carinthian said:

Again looks like the ECM run wants to warm up the British Isles by day 10 going by the latest 850mb temp anom chart . A European great divide with trough domination again showing over Central and SE Europe according to the upper flow charts and resulting with some rather large negative 850mb level anomaly temps as seen below.

ECMOPEU12_240_34.png

So what does this mean? That there will be no real big notable heatwave in Europe this year for us to tap into. And any wind direction from the East wont be hot enough to bring us any big continental heat (35*C Plus) 

Edited by 38.7°C
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Not bad runs this morning, in fact pretty good for those in the south.  However, once again, the further north you are the less you'll be impressed, but it's not going to be a washout by any means. Both the ECM and Parallel have the Azores trying to nose in but not quite getting making it the whole way (sorry the north!).

In fact, days 8-10 on the Para look potentially very warm for the south of Ireland and the UK, but at this range it pointless....blah blah blah!!!

image.thumb.png.accc678937244dc0edcfd4cac6e8550c.pngimage.thumb.png.9fdf93e8e8f2766d169f9a88eaaf1d3d.pngimage.thumb.png.183c0a46b95b3dbf596bec905f241132.png  

Quick request, does anyone have the stats of how the new Para is performing at the moment?

Edited by Ice Day
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13 hours ago, Daniel* said:

Just to make it very clear to all ?

glorious end to ECM 12z maybe this run is pushing Azores high too NE but looks at least for southern parts we look to see return of real summer from week after next.

B3F323A2-165C-46B8-AAD7-B03D1D0ECFA5.thumb.gif.d7e73d6e12dab669a7c7f546232694c8.gif

Great news.

Just a matter now of keeping all the melts away from the beaches.

Back to work.

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Again positive signs this morning, ECM builds those Heights towards the South and ICON also builds them by day 8.The mean also shows this favourable build of pressure too... So the plan is something more Summer like come the 7-8 day period. 

modez_20200628_1000_animation.gif

moddeu_20200628_1100_animation.gif

graphe0_00_287_114___.png

graphe1_00_287_114___.png

Edited by MATT☀️
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Not a fan of single eps clusters, especially in the extended period but it’s looking like high heights (and obviously associated pressure ) will establish through week 2 

this is a consistent trend 

naefs not quite as bullish so expect NOAA 8/14 day to look more promising tomorrow than today 

however, I still wouldn’t expect a sustained spell of settled conditions ( like April/may)  as occasional incursions from the Atlantic trough seem inevitable but generally fine and potentially hot again 

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16 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Not a fan of single eps clusters, especially in the extended period but it’s looking like high heights (and obviously associated pressure ) will establish through week 2 

this is a consistent trend 

naefs not quite as bullish so expect NOAA 8/14 day to look more promising tomorrow than today 

however, I still wouldn’t expect a sustained spell of settled conditions ( like April/may)  as occasional incursions from the Atlantic trough seem inevitable but generally fine and potentially hot again 

I'm pretty much of the same opinion. The clusters have consistently indicated positive height anomalies during the second week of July, but never excessively positively, and I think what we're now seeing is a lot of Atlantic activity at the same time, displaced slightly north - my current punt is for some good short periods of sun and warmth as mid July approaches, but unable to gain long term ascendancy due to an uptick in Atlantic lows - it may well be that the south stays largely settled and the north sees more of these interruptions. The D10 clusters chart hopefully reflects these thoughts:

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2020062800_240.

Edited by Man With Beard
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^^

Cluster one looks very appealing..

Cluster two looks decent too.

I suspect your analysis will be pretty accurate, ie,better for SE Britain,note SE Britain as opposed to SE England.

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