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Model Output Discussion - Into Summer 2020.


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These sort of comments are ridiculous if I may say so 10 days into meteorological summer, really!

The upcoming period has been well advertised, as a changeable flatter downstream spell of weather, and for the forthcoming period at least, the pattern stays amplified across the Pacific c/o low frequ

That is a somewhat parochial assessment if I may say so.    As posted recently, these numerical model products derive data from some of the algorithms used in what is called the Global Synoptic Dynami

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9 hours ago, Tamara said:

The upcoming period has been well advertised, as a changeable flatter downstream spell of weather, and for the forthcoming period at least, the pattern stays amplified across the Pacific c/o low frequency tropical forcing rooted in the Indian Ocean

However, as is always the case, it is not NWP that is driving the pattern but a raft of highly uncertain signals that are not cut and dried by any means in the coming weeks and why extrapolating same trends too far out in time is likely to lead to error.

There are some similarities with where we are now to 2016 in terms of tropical feedbacks and a somewhat fitful extra tropical disconnect to these, which looks likely to keep waxing and waning related to a reprise of very similar mercurial QBO behaviour, even if based on different triggers. As a consequence, unexpected results could well keep manifesting in the extra tropics. The essence of this is that amplification of the Pacific will take charge of proceedings once more in the opening part of July, but will still be prone to greater interruptions than might be expected from a regime like this - based on further off equator forcing diffusing the default low frequency Indian Ocean tropical signal that is supressing angular momentum and leading to a downstream retracted Azores ridge.. 

On this basis, lifting out of low pressure once more and further warm spells are quite feasible as July moves further forward.

With all that is mind, and the talk of off equator forcing, this is something to watch

311009430_CCKWInd.thumb.GIF.54e5282e486c7e80b862497132be735e.GIF

 

A significant high frequency eastward propagating CCKW related MJO event programmed by this model, and gaining consensus with ECM during July which would trigger sub tropical ridge wave-breaking and provide a push to lift out the UK/Scandinavian trough of the first week or so of July. NWP in general is starting to programme the beginnings of this ridge encroachment in the extended period as well stated by Matt and others. These high frequency tropical waves are likely fast moving through the tropics until they start imprinting on the low frequency standing wave across Africa and the Indian Ocean, by this time acting "constructively" to increase trade winds once more. Constructive in terms of re-enforcing the low frequency standing wave , but clearly less constructive in terms of what it does to our downstream pattern.

So it is possible therefore that a similar progression of weather as seen in recent weeks may occur through July and heading towards August - with the upcoming cooler changeable spell leading to another potentially very warm spell before, perhaps, breaking down once more from the west later one - as the low frequency signal returns to control the downstream pattern.

A mixed outlook, but certainly not a completely bad one by any means with plenty of interest for more excellent summer weather in between cooler more changeable conditions ?

 

Thankyou Tamara.

Really interesting and informative are your thoughts.

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Looking at the short term I think we have to roll with the punches as it becomes cooler and increasingly unsettled but even the ECM 12z operational ends more promisingly and as for the GEFS 12z mean, there are some great signs that we may see a return of high summer conditions, there are some peachy members in there, as there were earlier today...so, the phrase short term pain for long term gain seems about right as things stand!?
ACDE6057-B435-4ED6-A8B6-649E77D0F986.thumb.png.bd7b24e79732384dc1823932cb007d1e.png54C36ACA-B8F8-41CC-B47A-7340F32BCA38.thumb.png.3225c2e28341a11f2857b8e88410d00d.png642944E8-F1C4-4FD0-B7C2-C159C8871730.thumb.png.1c8f6de8cf73dcdbd5e5b1620239fc96.png23BACC42-5952-4AF4-9BC0-8C0BC66CD41A.thumb.png.db4af47b90cad723b378ace75de7a634.pngB4D429EB-8EA9-4642-A2EB-ED255EC2A26F.thumb.png.ad6cd9bcba67ee589e58f6272a0ee7e2.pngAE0E2C83-9043-4E5E-8D50-39D50F554021.thumb.png.067c269c2075d9cff0af9d0cf100ba60.pngD82E36E4-B3CD-4CE4-8373-4CE491D15C7E.thumb.png.ac82c18e9f5303d6acf12f9304d3d27a.pngB915BE23-279C-451F-B1A6-6B3EAF775E18.thumb.png.1cac7319aa47b315245315962d676212.png22A48E08-D05D-4F86-B3B6-BD267D9AD510.thumb.png.9838aa733e86f1be059003c3cf22f3a2.pngA1E61F36-FBE3-4D56-A5E6-16F8CF1102A5.thumb.png.346480f13d1f23c5c342a5b30a038940.png8DC932C6-40CA-4800-8AB5-71D102BFBD8A.thumb.png.8ec03b8b86e018c76553b714772ee0ef.png

 

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27 minutes ago, joggs said:

Thankyou Tamara.

Really interesting and informative are your thoughts.

Seconded joggs...I have but one questions for @Tamara: Is this an original Jackson 'Jack The Dripper' Pollack, or is it a print!:oldlaugh:

311009430_CCKWInd.thumb.GIF.54e5282e486c

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Looking through the individual ECM ensembles tonight, still a pretty clear signal for a pressure rise between D9 and D12 (perhaps not quite as overwhelming as this morning) - around 20 to 30% really turn the heat on by as early as Tuesday 7th.

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1 hour ago, Man With Beard said:

Clusters tonight for D11-D15 tonight, not bad at all especially on cluster 2 but also cluster 1 even weak positive anomalies in July should equate to decent chance of it being mainly settled. 

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2020062612_300.

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2020062612_360.

Very interesting and thanks for update 

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A very mixed bag of possibilities in today's GFS 00Z:?

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

GEFS ens very supportive of a warm-up following a short much-cooler snap::oldgood:

t850Suffolk.png    prmslSuffolk.png

t2mSuffolk.png    prcpSuffolk.png

And, thankfully, that Scandi trough feature looks like being only transient.?  NH profiles:

npsh500mean-006.png    npsh500mean-096.png

npsh500mean-240.png    npsh500mean-384.png

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23 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Next weekend - despite some of the predictions for a height rise, I wouldn’t be planning a bbq just yet 

965842EE-4D63-4BF5-ACBF-2658D35CE122.thumb.jpeg.2e76d7a46af678a8267b33717d5a505b.jpeg

The trend to the remergence of the Azores high looks fairly solid but pinning down how quickly the jet shifts north notso...

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12 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

To me and thee, yes... But, to the Profits of Doom (henceforth to be known as The Pod People:oldlaugh:) winter's only just around the corner!:shok:

Yes the trend into week 2 looks pretty good for the time being .........

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15 minutes ago, MATT☀️ said:

I'm sorry mate... November!! 15-21c regarding temps from the Midlands South, yes it's disappointing, but as November really become that warm!! 

You say no sign of anything settled in a 10 day period so obviously you haven't viewed the means or you refuse to be influenced by them. It looks to be improving by the end of next Weekend or very shortly afterwards. 

EDM1-192 (1).gif

EDM1-216 (1).gif

EDM1-240 (1).gif

gens-21-1-180.png

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gens-21-1-240.png

During early November mid to high teens are common place down here so not massively out of context, nearly all the main operational models show a likely pretty deep low pressure through most of next weekend meaning any settling down of conditions is likely 10days away. Apart from a sneaky nibble in my post about November there really isn’t much to warrant this torrent of abuse, especially again from Tamara who attempts to belittle and condescend and frankly who’s behaviour despite her fantastic knowledge again is embarrassing. 
 

And again some of my posting if far more realistic (if admittedly a bit sarcastic) than those to those who cherry pick one ensemble member showing 30c in two weeks time when the other 19members show nothing of the like. So is my posts should go into the Moans/Ramps thread then so should they. 

 

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On to the models - unsettled this week, probably lasting into the weekend and then signs of summer returning 8 or 9 days from now. Even this poor-looking (on the face of it) chart from ECM you can easily imagine that little bump of high pressure in the Atlantic visiting our shores to settle things down

image.thumb.png.73532aba36decb76c0b33df034e5208f.png

Edited by Blessed Weather
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Nothing too horrific here although the north may experience some poor-ish conditions at times

image.thumb.png.387e065a357a062d2b5ababf4e8c4461.png

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I don’t think it’s hardly surprising there are complaints about next week. There’s no dressing up that it’s going to be poor, perhaps forgivable if not for the fact that a large swathe of June has also been poor (not distracted by the last four days).

My hope is this will be a bit like that final week of July 2005 and that high pressure swiftly moves in to bring something more typical for the time of year. Tentative signs of that happening but more runs needed methinks. To state that what is shown is normal for high summer is frankly absurd, but then neither is what we’ve had this week.

 

On a side note, which models are taken into account in Netweather’s 10 day at a glance forecasts?

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