Jump to content
Cold?
Local
Radar
Snow?

Model Output Discussion - Into Summer 2020.


Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    Interesting GFS 06Z at Day 10... But, please don't take GFS 2m temp-forecasts in the least bit seriously; they are, to put it simply: CRAP!:oldlaugh:

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

    • Like 6
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Spotted a post you think may be an issue? Please help the team by reporting it.
    • Replies 3k
    • Created
    • Last Reply

    Top Posters In This Topic

    Top Posters In This Topic

    Popular Posts

    These sort of comments are ridiculous if I may say so 10 days into meteorological summer, really!

    The upcoming period has been well advertised, as a changeable flatter downstream spell of weather, and for the forthcoming period at least, the pattern stays amplified across the Pacific c/o low frequ

    That is a somewhat parochial assessment if I may say so.    As posted recently, these numerical model products derive data from some of the algorithms used in what is called the Global Synoptic Dynami

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent
    2 hours ago, johnholmes said:

    And this morning from EC-GFS simply confirms what I said about yesterday's charts.

    It really does seem that the upper air pattern is setting up for a 6-14 day period with possible a NW-SE split with the best of 'any' settled weather the further SE one llives with the most unsettled as one gets further NW. There will be occasions when all areas are affected by bands of rain though, certainly markedly cooler than most areas have just been having. Not sure about wind strengths from the charts. The contour lines suggest no major developments to me this morning but individual days may show different.

    http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

    I think after 7 days everywhere is equally getting hit. Models desperate to get a negatively tilted jet going = game over for the next 2 weeks at least.

    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
    2 hours ago, Faronstream said:

    This post removed.

    The mean is usually a far better guide than any op runs, which are prone to wild swings. If you rely on op runs to predict the weather, you are on very shaky ground. And in denial of the bigger picture.

     

    Edited by Blessed Weather
    • Like 9
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth
    2 hours ago, Faronstream said:

    This post removed.

    I have to say I strongly dislike the mean representations, especially the further out you go. Blending together one disastrous chart and one amazing chart might land you somewhere around average even if average isn't really on the table as a option. 

    Edited by Blessed Weather
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, warm/hot plumes, snow, anything severe
  • Location: Bedfordshire
    2 hours ago, Faronstream said:

    This post removed.

    Because he has the right to post anything the models show?!

    Edit: Sorry for the off-topic mods...

    Away in FI, a few of the ensembles do show a warm up after the unsettled period in July but at the moment it's too far away and will most likely change...

    t2mBedfordshire.png

    Edited by Blessed Weather
    • Like 7
    • Thanks 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    7 minutes ago, Alderc said:

    I have to say I strongly dislike the mean representations, especially the further out you go. Blending together one disastrous chart and one amazing chart might land you somewhere around average even if average isn't really on the table as a option. 

    Then I would say, that there are no 'options', that the weather is utterly unconstrained by model output; the models do not control the weather...?

    Edited by General Cluster
    • Like 8
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    Right then, here we are -- the GEFS ensembles are here; so we pray!?

    t850Suffolk.png    prmslSuffolk.png

    t2mSuffolk.png    prcpSuffolk.png

    Only thing I can see there, that's always worth a whinge, is that the 2m temps seem to be a law unto themselves...And, there's a decent chance of us getting some of the wet stuff, too... barring today and tomorrow of course!:shok::oldlaugh:

    • Like 3
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Cardiff
  • Weather Preferences: Warm and sunny!
  • Location: Cardiff
    14 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

    Right then, here we are -- the GEFS ensembles are here; so we pray!?

    t850Suffolk.png    prmslSuffolk.png

    t2mSuffolk.png    prcpSuffolk.png

    Only thing I can see there, that's always worth a whinge, is that the 2m temps seem to be a law unto themselves...And, there's a decent chance of us getting some of the wet stuff, too... barring today and tomorrow of course!:shok::oldlaugh:

    Looks decent heading into mid July.  I reckon we'll break the trend and have a decent August for once.

    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Summer & Winter
  • Location: manchester

    Knowing the models they will probably be filled with heatwave passion on the 12 or 18Z.  Models look poor today but just watch them take a swing in the next day or so.  Meanwhile enjoy the most thundery June since 1982 with some decent firework shows Tomorrow and Friday. I think everywhere in the UK will see one
     

    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Anything out of the ordinary!
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    0DE24E77-7EAA-47DF-BB7E-A2B5A4483E5A.thumb.png.d1894780cf2279fbdc6f8b7c32bca96a.png33AD5946-FA76-4D84-A622-F395A719300B.thumb.png.10e05a183b109fd44588464c297657a4.png

    In the reliable-ish range (day 7/8) its just a low pressure fest. Looking like the first week of July will be pretty forgettable. There’s some murmurings of a chance of improvement out of the first week towards mid month with a flattening of the Pacific ridge, but that’s some way off for now.

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Helensburgh,22 miles from Glasgow
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,snow and....a bit more snow
  • Location: Helensburgh,22 miles from Glasgow
    22 minutes ago, 38.7°C said:

    Knowing the models they will probably be filled with heatwave passion on the 12 or 18Z.  Models look poor today but just watch them take a swing in the next day or so.  Meanwhile enjoy the most thundery June since 1982 with some decent firework shows Tomorrow and Friday. I think everywhere in the UK will see one
     

    image.thumb.gif.373c1163d4e745a71fd73414d90f00e4.gif

    • Like 3
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heatwaves and electrical storms, and fidgid Arctic type winters
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
    40 minutes ago, Earthshine said:

    Looks decent heading into mid July.  I reckon we'll break the trend and have a decent August for once.

    Interesting point you make there. There is talk of much warmer and settled conditions by mid July from Exeter currently, and I think the excellent Singularity hit on this point with his update yesterday. I've also noticed several online forecasters highlighting August as potentially a very promising month.. Hopefully Tams and Singularity will home in on this closer to the time. 

    CFS although a very temperamental model does indeed show much better conditions towards mid month. Hopefully the EC46 may shed some more light on this later this evening, which I will update on later tonight. 

    Enjoy the heat folks, personally I feel its to dam hot right now, I woke up this morning feeling like I've slept in Death Valley. ☀️?

     

    cfs-0-378.png

    cfs-0-402.png

    cfs-0-426.png

    cfs-0-456.png

    • Like 6
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
    2 hours ago, Alderc said:

    I have to say I strongly dislike the mean representations, especially the further out you go. Blending together one disastrous chart and one amazing chart might land you somewhere around average even if average isn't really on the table as a option. 

    I have found over 10 years that the 500 mb anomaly charts I regularly post with my ideas is a far more accurate predictor beyond 5 days than the operational outputs either from GFS or ECMWF. About 7 years ago I did a daily check for 12 months (so winter and summer) and found the 6-10 chart was about 70 sometimes 75% accurate and the 8-14 NOAA on its own still over 60+% correct for the overall 'type' of weather. No detail is expected of them but as a general trend be it major wavelength change at 500 mb or no change, regardless of the 2x or 4x daily much less prone to swings and used carefully (note the word) then a far less volatile and more accurate idea of 5-15 days ahead.

    Trust me A it does work.

    • Like 9
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    Looking at the GEFS 6z mean next midweek (1st July) I think many would agree that’s preety poor for the height of summer but I also think many would agree there is some improvement thereafter, at least across the south / southeast...20D1680C-A19D-4A5B-8AEC-D2C6E063080D.thumb.png.6aa2a3a581233b8d7ee61eddafdcf258.pngF5798EF0-7D38-459B-BE37-9CC56F30835A.thumb.png.d0a4b0ca017119c407dd80ad75a7da39.png663C1061-C72B-49BD-8815-250FA09B1246.thumb.png.647b573394cfcbeec76c81d610ebe1b7.pngB7658D1F-64D8-4480-9231-2C40EB248492.thumb.png.21fdc77ce1dd14ef319d9715715368c9.png582867A2-EA9F-482C-8A98-73A681A96B2C.thumb.png.341527d5ebb265d804d6b1ea86e29cd8.png

    Edited by JON SNOW
    • Like 7
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
    1 hour ago, johnholmes said:

    I have found over 10 years that the 500 mb anomaly charts I regularly post with my ideas is a far more accurate predictor beyond 5 days than the operational outputs either from GFS or ECMWF. About 7 years ago I did a daily check for 12 months (so winter and summer) and found the 6-10 chart was about 70 sometimes 75% accurate and the 8-14 NOAA on its own still over 60+% correct for the overall 'type' of weather. No detail is expected of them but as a general trend be it major wavelength change at 500 mb or no change, regardless of the 2x or 4x daily much less prone to swings and used carefully (note the word) then a far less volatile and more accurate idea of 5-15 days ahead.

    Trust me A it does work.

    Obviously i fully agree with this..

    Some people may not like these charts, maybe they arent exciting enough? But amongst all the freely available data there is, if you want a realistic view for that timeframe, i dont think they can be beaten, and ive yet to see a source that comes even close.

    • Like 8
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Anything out of the ordinary!
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    C8C74CE0-F5C4-4111-BC9E-6DCBD44868E2.thumb.png.1c35bc76154b17f9d6203defdc7f8c1f.png

    GFS 12z fancies another deep low next weekend too. Starts to turn settled by the end of the run, but too far off to worry about for now.

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    Ok guys, no beating about the bush, here’s the all important main thundery breakdown from the Gfs 12z operational...as you can see, tomorrow is a very warm / hot day with high humidity and the storm threat increases as Friday progresses with some severe storm potential..,I hate it when hot spells end with a whimper, tomorrow it ends with a loud BANG...for some of us!
    E3DF37E8-4A3F-4EAE-94D4-103681F6FD19.thumb.png.5df42be59e900dd58dbc5fdbb6da0b05.png2C0DDAF8-E567-476E-8D03-557C17F5C60E.thumb.png.87fdf6c4764de6b9e4a4b2834b9d8b1c.pngD2F9D26D-EDD4-448B-8B0F-77531314C510.thumb.png.0a65661a7a263c1c4c53e2969acf7d15.png8B4A446F-3DFF-4E10-B51E-10D3449E9BA8.thumb.png.c9e774af08c20e70e819b3d8c6f68dd6.png99F21B0F-9EC2-4DC9-B6F4-446AB8C82500.thumb.png.627ed573fad1ae4dedede8f6630d7b85.png

     

    • Like 6
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heatwaves and electrical storms, and fidgid Arctic type winters
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level

    It's an improving picture for sure on tonight's mean,much better by day 9 and 10..?

    EDM1-120.gif

    EDM1-144.gif

    EDM1-168.gif

    EDM1-192 (1).gif

    EDM1-216 (1).gif

    EDM1-240 (1).gif

    • Like 7
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Bedworth
  • Weather Preferences: No Extremes Of Any Kind
  • Location: Bedworth
    21 minutes ago, JON SNOW said:

    Ok guys, no beating about the bush, here’s the all important main thundery breakdown from the Gfs 12z operational...as you can see, tomorrow is a very warm / hot day with high humidity and the storm threat increases as Friday progresses with some severe storm potential..,I hate it when hot spells end with a whimper, tomorrow it ends with a loud BANG...for some of us!
    E3DF37E8-4A3F-4EAE-94D4-103681F6FD19.thumb.png.5df42be59e900dd58dbc5fdbb6da0b05.png2C0DDAF8-E567-476E-8D03-557C17F5C60E.thumb.png.87fdf6c4764de6b9e4a4b2834b9d8b1c.pngD2F9D26D-EDD4-448B-8B0F-77531314C510.thumb.png.0a65661a7a263c1c4c53e2969acf7d15.png8B4A446F-3DFF-4E10-B51E-10D3449E9BA8.thumb.png.c9e774af08c20e70e819b3d8c6f68dd6.png99F21B0F-9EC2-4DC9-B6F4-446AB8C82500.thumb.png.627ed573fad1ae4dedede8f6630d7b85.png

     

    Essentially Lincs Northwards

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Anything out of the ordinary!
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    2BCE87B0-A1FF-4124-85D0-66ED6FFA4109.thumb.png.5325b1fc949042d1841565374127a165.png07D965CF-D381-49BB-8F50-D88D235331D1.thumb.png.210a7ddf5d84e08d4bbd4a81f714240a.png
     

    Faint hints of some amplification on the ecm between day 7-10 as the eastern Canada ridge flattens off and gives the Azores high a chance to start to build. One to watch.

    • Like 6
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
    20 minutes ago, MATT☀️ said:

    It's an improving picture for sure on tonight's mean,much better by day 9 and 10..?

    EDM1-120.gif

    EDM1-144.gif

    EDM1-168.gif

    EDM1-192 (1).gif

    EDM1-216 (1).gif

    EDM1-240 (1).gif

    Yes, parallel offering some crumbs of comfort too tonight, 1020 on the mean at day 10 should give a good chance of largely settled weather there for the south.

    5E81748C-106E-4BEF-9092-EE2C22683828.thumb.gif.1c99dd32fd861d09ad98ac12a4f23f51.gif

    So the likelihood is a rather unsettled spell, more so to the NW, and a return to settled at day 8-10.  And the signal for rising AAM is still there too:

    D5198F80-4331-4BBA-AC04-8ADD89F04E04.thumb.png.f28faf178f72e298b1feefd6adc380f3.png

    And the first part of that rise is now very much in the reliable.

    • Like 7
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    Signal for rising GLAAM with a large question mark.

    spacer.png

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Guest
    This topic is now closed to further replies.
    ×
    ×
    • Create New...