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Model Output Discussion - Into Summer 2020.


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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
    13 minutes ago, LRD said:

    Are they anomaly (anomalous from the norm) charts? If so, with relatively high pressure normal for the UK at this time of year, even cluster 2 on Day 8 might not be a disaster as it could indicate a slack low with warm air still getting in the mix? Or am I reading that wrong?

    They are - anomalies vs monthly norm for 500mb heights. Though I would say that at any point of the year if you see the very dark blues and purples appearing then it’s going to be a deep-ish low.
    Cluster 2 at 192 might be ok as the low is far enough away to keep us out of trouble, but would advect warmer air up from the south with the anti-clockwise circulation.

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    These sort of comments are ridiculous if I may say so 10 days into meteorological summer, really!

    The upcoming period has been well advertised, as a changeable flatter downstream spell of weather, and for the forthcoming period at least, the pattern stays amplified across the Pacific c/o low frequ

    That is a somewhat parochial assessment if I may say so.    As posted recently, these numerical model products derive data from some of the algorithms used in what is called the Global Synoptic Dynami

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    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
    1 hour ago, LRD said:

    Are they anomaly (anomalous from the norm) charts? If so, with relatively high pressure normal for the UK at this time of year, even cluster 2 on Day 8 might not be a disaster as it could indicate a slack low with warm air still getting in the mix? Or am I reading that wrong?

    My understanding - and I am not 100% sure of this, I've come to this conclusion through 3 years of daily observation - is that the colours show the anomalies from the mean of all the runs in that cluster, and the contours show the actual 500mb lines from an example within that cluster. 

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    Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
    56 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

    My understanding - and I am not 100% sure of this, I've come to this conclusion through 3 years of daily observation - is that the colours show the anomalies from the mean of all the runs in that cluster, and the contours show the actual 500mb lines from an example within that cluster. 

    I am sure you are correct MWB, much as I use the 500 mb anomaly charts in another way

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    Posted
  • Location: manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Summer & Winter
  • Location: manchester
    4 hours ago, chapmanslade said:

    Yes and two days ago we were going to be 'locked in' to a cool damp period extending to most of June ! (Not posted by you I hasten to add)

    If ever there was a reason to stop jumping on individual runs at 10 days this is it !

    Two days ago models looked like a "locked in" pattern was emerging, big heat going up Russia way and a huge monsterous blocking atlantic ridge with the UK stuck right there in the worst place imaginable. Yet attitudes on FI soon change when models start showing heatwaves "locking in".   A lot of folk seem to forget the title of this thread is "model output discussion" not "It will never happen" discussion. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
    6 minutes ago, 38.7°C said:

    Two days ago models looked like a "locked in" pattern was emerging, big heat going up Russia way and a huge monsterous blocking atlantic ridge with the UK stuck right there in the worst place imaginable. Yet attitudes on FI soon change when models start showing heatwaves "locking in".   A lot of folk seem to forget the title of this thread is "model output discussion" not "It will never happen" discussion. 

    It also reminds you to expect the unexpected. Things can and do change at short notice sometimes. It certainly looked like we were being locked into an unsettled pattern, but a timely wave break to reinforce scandi heights looks like changing the state of play.

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    I’ve posted a lot today!

    Further information on the upcoming model struggles - Ex Cristobal pumping a lot of heat and energy into the Jetstream over the USA - ripple effect downstream affects the UK of course.

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
    20 minutes ago, 38.7°C said:

    Two days ago models looked like a "locked in" pattern was emerging, big heat going up Russia way and a huge monsterous blocking atlantic ridge with the UK stuck right there in the worst place imaginable. Yet attitudes on FI soon change when models start showing heatwaves "locking in".   A lot of folk seem to forget the title of this thread is "model output discussion" not "It will never happen" discussion. 

    There was no evidence that it was going to be a "locked in" pattern. It was just a group of posters speculating through pessimism and hysteria. If you are speculating about the rest of the summer, that isn't model output discussion surely.

    This used to be particularly bad before 2013- we had had several horror summers over the previous 6 years and people always assumed we were heading for a repeat whenever an unsettled interlude happened. This was definitely lessened after the good summer of 2013.

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    Posted
  • Location: Study: University of Reading - Home: Keynsham, Bristol 40m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and Snowstorms
  • Location: Study: University of Reading - Home: Keynsham, Bristol 40m ASL
    4 hours ago, johnholmes said:

    By the way Simon Lee is a Phd student at Reading Uni Met department studying the Troppause and associated matters. So worth reading things he may post.

    Yes Simon is very well respected within the Meteorology Department here at my university, definitely a worth a follow as he provides some great detailed explanations on a lot model outputs.

    It's now time for the next set of model outputs?

    Edited by Ben Sainsbury
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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level

    Looks like Exeter going with UKMO model...

    Not the update i was hoping for this afternoon.

    Im expecting a GFS/EC backtrack with the Icelandic low this evening.

    We will see shortly..

    Edited by northwestsnow
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    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)

    The Icon is still not budging to the UKMO.

    here at 114 v's the 120 from UKMO this morning.

    icon-0-114.thumb.png.3654e6b038a6ba49376f1e5f66f18df6.pngUW120-21.thumb.gif.b7d2fced40aaf3c620de501b48e98510.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
    14 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

    Looks like Exeter going with UKMO model...

    Not the update i was hoping for this afternoon.

    Im expecting a GFS/EC backtrack with the Icelandic low this evening.

    We will see shortly..

    Exeter's updates seem to change almost daily now. They often seem to lag behind the latest output and guidance.

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    Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
    4 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

    Exeter's updates seem to change almost daily now. They often seem to lag behind the latest output and guidance.

    Was gona say the same thing!!really cannot take these updates seriously anymore!!they have been out by quiet a bit in the last year or so!!

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    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
    1 minute ago, sheikhy said:

    Was gona say the same thing!!really cannot take these updates seriously anymore!!they have been out by quiet a bit in the last year or so!!

    I suppose it depends on what their own models such as MOGREPS say. However, I often find that once the Met Office update is written, it's often already out of date.

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    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
    4 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

    I suppose it depends on what their own models such as MOGREPS say. However, I often find that once the Met Office update is written, it's often already out of date.

    Yep,probably going off this mornings run.

    sorry,edit:is MOGREPS UKMO or is it a different model?

    Edited by Allseasons-si
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    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
    4 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

    Yep,probably going off this mornings run.

    sorry,edit:is MOGREPS UKMO or is it a different model?

    It's a different model which isn't available for public viewing.

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
    17 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

    Yep,probably going off this mornings run.

    sorry,edit:is MOGREPS UKMO or is it a different model?

    MOGREPS is the MO's ensemble suite, no one is allowed to see it, even though we pay for it.  

    ICON run turns unsettled towards the end, but the key uncertainty is much earlier than that so no big deal.

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    Posted
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
  • Weather Preferences: Gales, T-storms, Heavy Rain, Heat, Cold - Love it all.
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.

    We've got dedicated threads for talk about the Met Office' updates and tweets. Model discussion only in here.

    Cheers. ?

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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heatwaves and electrical storms, and fidgid Arctic type winters
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
    56 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

    Looks like Exeter going with UKMO model...

    Not the update i was hoping for this afternoon.

    Im expecting a GFS/EC backtrack with the Icelandic low this evening.

    We will see shortly..

    Thing is mate was the update revolving around the 0z run, and obviously not the 12z run as its not yet run. Even so it states more Western areas for unsettled conditions, and still goes onto mention more widely settled conditions devoloping later anyway. I can't work out why so many get so downbeat at every model run.. Look at the weather we have already experienced this year.. Its not as if we have grounds to get overly concerned is it.. 

    If you look at the Icon run, we have a good spell incoming next week.. But by day 8,there is an interference knocking on the door which could well bring showers to more Western areas. But I'm not so sure at this range and I have a feeling UKMO may well be better than this mornings run. 

    UKMO is bang on like for like as the morning run.. But I still feel it would be an improving picture beyond day 6...that Low perhaps clearing beyond next weekend. 

    Perhaps by day 6 that Low clears with a build of pressure building in behind it. It's not a death sentence by any means.. More like death row.. ?

    UW120-21.gif

    UW120-21 (1).gif

    UW144-21.gif

    Edited by MATT☀️
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    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, warm/hot plumes, snow, anything severe
  • Location: Bedfordshire

    UKMO pegs the low on top of the UK at 144 but I expect it to shift SW and to bring in some continental warmth and thundery downpours.

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
    Just now, Zak M said:

    UKMO pegs the low on top of the UK at 144 but I expect it to shift SW and to bring in some continental warmth and thundery downpours.

    Urgh - UKMO looks crud again in comparison. Something has to give here.

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    Posted
  • Location: High Barnet
  • Location: High Barnet

    UKMO 12z looks similar to 0z, but that's fine IMO. Looks like we'd inevitably reach the same end result as the 'better' solutions just a few days later, only way for trough to move is south and that's clearly what it's doing from d5>d6

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