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Model Output Discussion - Into Summer 2020.


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These sort of comments are ridiculous if I may say so 10 days into meteorological summer, really!

The upcoming period has been well advertised, as a changeable flatter downstream spell of weather, and for the forthcoming period at least, the pattern stays amplified across the Pacific c/o low frequ

That is a somewhat parochial assessment if I may say so.    As posted recently, these numerical model products derive data from some of the algorithms used in what is called the Global Synoptic Dynami

Posted Images

Posted
  • Location: Bedworth
  • Weather Preferences: No Extremes Of Any Kind
  • Location: Bedworth
    3 hours ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

    Usual setup though, my area does badly with thunder/lightning off this setup, plumes nearly always break down with a whimper, unlike areas in the east

    same here these setups in more recent times have favoured the East more than central and more especially western areas

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    2 minutes ago, Gordon Webb said:

    same here these setups in more recent times have favoured the East more than central and more especially western areas

    Oh, come on, Gord:

    I spent all of my younger (sub-30 years' old) days hearing about severe thunderstorms in East Anglia, Kent and up the East Coast; and then spent an almost thunderless 21 years in Inverness... These days, though, @Mr Frost and @Kirkcaldy Weather  and @Stuart get way more storms than I do...

    If I were Donald (Female Body Inspector) Trump, I'd buy myself a private jet! :oldlaugh:

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedworth
  • Weather Preferences: No Extremes Of Any Kind
  • Location: Bedworth
    7 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

    Oh, come on, Gord:

    I spent all of my younger (sub-30 years' old) days hearing about severe thunderstorms in East Anglia, Kent and up the East Coast; and then spent an almost thunderless 21 years in Inverness... These days, though, @Mr Frost and @Kirkcaldy Weather  and @Stuart get way more storms than I do...

    If I were Donald (Female Body Inspector) Trump, I'd buy myself a private jet! :oldlaugh:

    OK perhaps I exaggerated a little bit

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    According to the ECM 0z ensemble mean, essentially I think we are looking at a changeable north / south split beyond the current very summery spell, however, that’s a broad brushstrokes view and it’s not as straightforward as that with some days warmer / cooler than others and likewise some days more unsettled / settled than others..but in general, the rule of thumb is that the south / southeast looks less unsettled and warmer than the north / northwest.
    42B0BB95-62DB-4619-9F53-CFB8CD3EEDD5.thumb.gif.810818104e6b0956a1fba30f494de102.gifA27F0FA8-DDBF-430B-9A94-502F7C81F97C.thumb.gif.75f2801f009893524098e97852be555b.gifAD60CEAA-42C7-47FF-A594-AACE4ACAC724.thumb.gif.c4128896dcb7533de06b5e75187caa97.gif30CB8E8B-B7A7-44FB-BCF7-96D3D3FB98D6.thumb.gif.e0f051957f0949eb2b251d1aed77aafd.gifF8E0BA01-0304-4C0B-8F6C-B2D9B84C1DD3.thumb.gif.55eb5edcc109591128f22592b3021045.gif20761E19-7179-4C68-8295-AD28D5BF837C.thumb.gif.4d8ea984f726edf23f13941cca0eb55d.gif

    Edited by JON SNOW
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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Anything out of the ordinary!
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
    15 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

    Amazingly the ECM clusters for D11-D15 are split exactly the same as Monday's - 27 members for a less settled and cooler picture dominated by a Scandi trough, and 24 members sending a ridge over the UK (heatwave potential).

    Not really much to say, therefore, only time will tell!

    ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2020062400_300.

    I’m not so sure - doesn’t look like any wave breaking going on, if you run that through it just goes flat again. Just looks like alternating between weak ridges and troughs at the moment.

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    Posted
  • Location: Chelmsford, Essex
  • Location: Chelmsford, Essex

    Is it likely East Anglia will be a bit hotter tomorrow, given 30C doesn't seem to have been reached?

    The weather apps, websites and models still seem unsure which day between now and Friday will be the hottest for the eastern counties.

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Anything out of the ordinary!
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
    2 minutes ago, h2005__uk__ said:

    Is it likely East Anglia will be a bit hotter tomorrow, given 30C doesn't seem to have been reached?

    The weather apps, websites and models still seem unsure which day between now and Friday will be the hottest for the eastern counties.

    FE7C6589-C094-421F-B4E6-6492BFED6EAB.thumb.jpeg.68d6c48dc533f0957212b205e8fabf48.jpeg

    Made 30c here. Similar tomorrow, maybe a degree higher.

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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heatwaves and electrical storms, and fidgid Arctic type winters
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
    39 minutes ago, Singularity said:

    cfsv2_aam_fcst_current.png wk3.wk4_20200623.z500.png


    Today, CFSv2's a bit keener on  some climbs in AAM during the 1st half of July.

    Before then, a recovery to near-neutral gives us a rock on which to try and build that +AAM fortress. On Twitter, I've started seeing a growing appetite for +AAM style outcomes by mid-July, among meteorologists / climatologists working in the field of longer-term tropical patterns.

    Even so, I remain of an open mind as to which way things will go. That period 28th June to 5th July is so 'on the fence' as La Nina battles against the rest of the tropics.

    Glad you mentioned that, I've noticed Exeter talking along the lines of more widely settled and much warmer period towards next mid month! One to watch for sure. 

    UKMO not that bad tbh, at least  a warming possible beyond day 6. ?

    UW72-21.gif

    UW120-21.gif

    UW144-21.gif

    UW144-7.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Port of Ness,Isle of Lewis.
  • Location: Port of Ness,Isle of Lewis.
    1 hour ago, mb018538 said:

    FE7C6589-C094-421F-B4E6-6492BFED6EAB.thumb.jpeg.68d6c48dc533f0957212b205e8fabf48.jpeg

    Made 30c here. Similar tomorrow, maybe a degree higher.

    What is worse,to have had and lost or to have never had at all? ??

    6C366E17-645E-4C87-8521-C0556A56DAD5.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
    58 minutes ago, Singularity said:

    cfsv2_aam_fcst_current.png wk3.wk4_20200623.z500.png


    Today, CFSv2's a bit keener on  some climbs in AAM during the 1st half of July.

    Before then, a recovery to near-neutral gives us a rock on which to try and build that +AAM fortress. On Twitter, I've started seeing a growing appetite for +AAM style outcomes by mid-July, among meteorologists / climatologists working in the field of longer-term tropical patterns.

    Even so, I remain of an open mind as to which way things will go. That period 28th June to 5th July is so 'on the fence' as La Nina battles against the rest of the tropics.

    While it may well rise regardless its worth saying that the CFS appears to not even be starting at the right point correctly for whatever region, hence why it is in conflict with the Euro. 

    spacer.png

    I shall try to remember to check back on July 5th as to whether we are near -1 or above 0 but June so far would suggest that the Euro is odds on. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

    Speaking of complicated model output, our next challenge is a retrograding ridge into the beginning of next week and the subsequent forcing delivered from the artic profile. The GFS wants to quickly establish a trough to the north east and cold air descends that way. The UKMO/GEM not so convinced and actually manage to build heights close to the U.K. again next week. 
    Day 6 GFS

    image.thumb.png.76ef7e8c2f2ad00b420ada9630f3dc36.png
     

    UKMO and GEM

    image.thumb.gif.da3741ae5b9743431fd9def05808c024.gifimage.thumb.png.97c5f8e0468dbbf8eade2e478094ff23.png   
     

    Not a lot of confidence for next week, but any kind of ridge near to the U.K. with residual low heights in the Atlantic could produce something reasonable for many. Could be struggling towards the north west though again (sorry).

    Edited by Captain Shortwave
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    Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
    33 minutes ago, MATT☀️ said:

    Glad you mentioned that, I've noticed Exeter talking along the lines of more widely settled and much warmer period towards next mid month! One to watch for sure. 

    UKMO not that bad tbh, at least  a warming possible beyond day 6. ?

    UW72-21.gif

    UW120-21.gif

    UW144-21.gif

    UW144-7.gif

    That just looks zonal to me. Ridge, trough, ridge.

    12z GFS poor out to day 10 again. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Anything out of the ordinary!
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
    36 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

    That just looks zonal to me. Ridge, trough, ridge.

    12z GFS poor out to day 10 again. 

    I can take that if it has a bit of mobility and the odd ridge comes In for 2-3 days to quieten things down. As long as it’s not low stuck over the UK with no mobility then it’s slightly less rubbish.

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
    37 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

    I can take that if it has a bit of mobility and the odd ridge comes In for 2-3 days to quieten things down. As long as it’s not low stuck over the UK with no mobility then it’s slightly less rubbish.

    Seconded.

    Of course,the further SE you are,the better.

    The Penninines do a great job lapping up precipitation in a westerly pattern.

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    Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

    Well after this weeks heat and sunshine, assuming the models are correct, things are taking a turn for the worse, for a few days at least.  However, this is not going to be a total washout by any means, sunshine and showers will be the order of the day for many although temps will be below average with nighttime minima back into single digits widely across the UK (no complaints from me there!).

    That said, just looking at the ECM rolling out, there's enough of a divergence between the ECM/GFS/UKMO at 96 to have little confidence what happens thereafter

    image.thumb.png.e88a95ea9be81bde8a04c5fce9ccf337.pngimage.thumb.png.115af4e14b2654b4a9bc8a142810b747.pngimage.thumb.png.36d2160f3f1b4a8e2ba00cd0181e0ec2.png    

    Still keeping fingers crossed for a Friday thundery breakdown, certainly the CAPE is looking juicy for Friday afternoon across the country!

    image.thumb.png.f51af2eed0e580c42c42c16f7e49c011.pngimage.thumb.png.f7d014b4c9993b60cf9983ad6aea95be.png 

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Anything out of the ordinary!
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    Can’t we tell the weather is heading downhill - no comments on the ecm at all! Hardly surprising - it’s dreadful. Especially for the folks in the NW, Wales and W Scotland. Another 100-150mm of rain shown in places.

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
    12 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

    Can’t we tell the weather is heading downhill - no comments on the ecm at all! Hardly surprising - it’s dreadful. Especially for the folks in the NW, Wales and W Scotland. Another 100-150mm of rain shown in places.

    Doesn't look too bad for the SE corner .Perhaps Atlantic grot penetrating even the SE if that horrid 12z EC det is near the mark.

    Lets see where it sits in the suite but yes, whichever way you look at things, the NW is going to get wet.

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    Posted
  • Location: manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Summer & Winter
  • Location: manchester

    ECM 12 is awful outlier from Saturday onwards right to the end of the run, a real punishment for this week if that comes off, It will be back to the long cold days and turning on the heating at night. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
    30 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

    Can’t we tell the weather is heading downhill - no comments on the ecm at all! Hardly surprising - it’s dreadful. Especially for the folks in the NW, Wales and W Scotland. Another 100-150mm of rain shown in places.

    It's an absolute shocker. We're paying for that desert like Spring.

    Just as the NI schools come off on holiday too.

     

    Edited by mountain shadow
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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

    Quiet in here today, the models must be showing poor fayre. Alas they are especially for the north, lots of rain and cooler than average. June shaping up to be a wet month, and a very mixed one.

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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heatwaves and electrical storms, and fidgid Arctic type winters
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level

    The ECM mean does tend to improve beyond a week, especially towards the SW.. Its a little mixed in the shorter term, but nothing horrendous, I sometimes get the impression World War 3 as broken out on here judging by how quite it goes over a few poor runs.. Plenty of Summer left just yet.. 

    Oh and another positive is Heights over Greenland on the mean are less intense than the op indicated.. ☀️?

    EDM1-192.gif

    EDM1-216.gif

    EDM1-240.gif

    tenor-17.gif

    Edited by MATT☀️
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