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Model Output Discussion - Into Summer 2020.


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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
    10 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

    That’s interesting - I’ve read a fair bit of pessimism regarding winter with the failed eQBO and it going back westerly again.

    I have a feeling this winter will be 'the one' but I'm not going to derail the model thread ?

    Edited by CreweCold
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    These sort of comments are ridiculous if I may say so 10 days into meteorological summer, really!

    The upcoming period has been well advertised, as a changeable flatter downstream spell of weather, and for the forthcoming period at least, the pattern stays amplified across the Pacific c/o low frequ

    That is a somewhat parochial assessment if I may say so.    As posted recently, these numerical model products derive data from some of the algorithms used in what is called the Global Synoptic Dynami

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Anything out of the ordinary!
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
    2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

    Well it obviously isn't reproducing your chart:

    image.thumb.jpg.9033c1ac7c7a5002e3cc7d1ec463531a.jpg

    The different runs diverge from ages ago!!  Probably from some runs weeks ago, I would suggest.

    The blue line is the analysis up to the 23rd, so I assumed it was from today, with the colours in the top right representing the last few runs going back in date order, and the circles today’s run. Though I can’t be 100% sure.

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedworth
  • Weather Preferences: No Extremes Of Any Kind
  • Location: Bedworth
    45 minutes ago, JON SNOW said:

    I haven’t seen many charts posted about the potentially thundery breakdown on Friday, an explosive ? end to our little hot spell so here is the Gfs 12z operational runs take on it!!!???️⛈️☀️

    FB6D6FC9-A33D-4D18-B85B-02832600ACFA.thumb.png.53931aeb943d47c00db8f7ed5ee96919.png71BB62A2-E30D-48B6-85F4-74B7B7218A65.thumb.png.08025b737e0cc2938bcfc692cbf954da.png85251E88-E14C-4FF3-94C2-6BF993D9FD85.thumb.png.f039e2f73cbf8e574948a568edda2329.png41F2DCBE-A8EB-44F8-9124-D9F9BF883B5C.thumb.png.2ebdc529743e65af318956f27b5b53b6.png5341FE0B-D599-48A9-B2E7-900D2872FBED.thumb.gif.5af68cce96da05b575745cf96ab0cf78.gif

    Will please those who felt deprived last week that's for sure IF it comes off

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

    Nothing obvious from the ECM mean charts, T168 and T240:

    image.thumb.jpg.397768e8835d33052176c8bd2a923ff4.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.a2d3c7dd8fa33a6e5a76feb60b739f52.jpg

    To be perfectly honest, I think what ever might have happened to influence these charts, will have happened well before T144.   Let's leave it for another day and enjoy the sunshine!  

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth
    1 hour ago, JON SNOW said:

    I haven’t seen many charts posted about the potentially thundery breakdown on Friday, an explosive ? end to our little hot spell so here is the Gfs 12z operational runs take on it!!!???️⛈️☀️

    FB6D6FC9-A33D-4D18-B85B-02832600ACFA.thumb.png.53931aeb943d47c00db8f7ed5ee96919.png71BB62A2-E30D-48B6-85F4-74B7B7218A65.thumb.png.08025b737e0cc2938bcfc692cbf954da.png85251E88-E14C-4FF3-94C2-6BF993D9FD85.thumb.png.f039e2f73cbf8e574948a568edda2329.png41F2DCBE-A8EB-44F8-9124-D9F9BF883B5C.thumb.png.2ebdc529743e65af318956f27b5b53b6.png5341FE0B-D599-48A9-B2E7-900D2872FBED.thumb.gif.5af68cce96da05b575745cf96ab0cf78.gif

    Well this is an interesting one (I promise I'm not being a doom monger), a lot of those storms are surface based. GFS was a massive 5C out on dew points today through the midlands so the CAPE shown is MASSIVELY over inflated. There's also going to be the potential debris left over from elevated convection through the earlier hours, time and time again we've seen the models under the usually large amounts of mid level clag left from decaying storms. Hopefully this isn't another example!! 

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    Posted
  • Location: Birmingham, West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Severe cold, heavy snow, massive thunderstorms and bright sunshine.
  • Location: Birmingham, West Midlands

    How does the south part of the Birmingham area look for storms on Friday? I am specific with my location because on Saturday 13th, overhead storms hit the city centre, but we just got rumbles.

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedworth
  • Weather Preferences: No Extremes Of Any Kind
  • Location: Bedworth
    43 minutes ago, Alderc said:

    Well this is an interesting one (I promise I'm not being a doom monger), a lot of those storms are surface based. GFS was a massive 5C out on dew points today through the midlands so the CAPE shown is MASSIVELY over inflated. There's also going to be the potential debris left over from elevated convection through the earlier hours, time and time again we've seen the models under the usually large amounts of mid level clag left from decaying storms. Hopefully this isn't another example!! 

    well GFS has a habit of overdoing dew points 

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, warm/hot plumes, snow, anything severe
  • Location: Bedfordshire

    ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2020062312_168.thumb.png.e69c43f0ed14ee23da0811ba311b8679.png

    I'll take the middle, thanks! ?

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    Posted
  • Location: Ward Green barnsley
  • Weather Preferences: Snow freezing fog heatwave thunderstorm
  • Location: Ward Green barnsley

    31.4% chance of it happening anyway lol. Edit @Zak M reply to your post. Why its below I don't no lol

    Edited by weathermadbarnsleylad
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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    Looking at the Gfs 0z operational it’s still very much game on for a thundery breakdown on Friday which is also a very warm and humid day although not as hot as today & tomorrow which are scorchers..up around 90F...!!?

    B3B2ACD1-FB7D-4203-A171-56CACA91C0CD.thumb.png.773e481f934e9e8e16200df1a65f3a63.pngDC8391A8-38D0-4902-A80F-4FFA829AE8E8.thumb.png.05248faa8de3c27b35395617d9813a89.png38E796BD-865C-48AA-A53D-652C4B28BBAB.thumb.png.b1e58957074ad6b7ab837a45914e15aa.png47F640FD-A5A1-4149-A696-90F61CF67BA6.thumb.png.8c67a72d3fb8b3532688ab906ab5c516.png

    Edited by JON SNOW
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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Anything out of the ordinary!
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    D9A0A9D4-84F9-46C2-8F9D-F5E7E21DDCC5.thumb.png.70c492258bc312c209fe6ad43fe1019c.pngEEDD0237-F0AB-4578-B9A8-EE17C7060C2A.thumb.png.06e9010b4e127227e57673b01533a0f3.png5C153680-47AA-4614-B58B-AA6DE09A32D2.thumb.png.a8e545ae0c3368ae90e8ba420dea57ac.png55C56818-7686-40FB-B362-6CBA6285E2DA.thumb.png.f27ff505cdde532082d66c23ff2c2941.png
     

    Bit of an eyebrow raiser from the ecm this morning! ?

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    A lot of scatter, in today's GEFS 00Z ensembles, once we enter July; so, a changeable set-up looks assured, and attempting any day-to-day analysis is futile:?

    t850Suffolk.png    t2mSuffolk.png

    prmslSuffolk.png    prcpSuffolk.png

    NH profiles would appear to back up the notion, that the GFS op's 2m temps are being undercooked... But, I guess we all know that!:oldlaugh:

    npsh500mean-006.png    npsh500mean-096.png

    npsh500mean-240.png    npsh500mean-384.png

    Perhaps a more important concern (then again -- perhaps not?) is: What the fork's going on around the Pole?:shok:

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    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
    34 minutes ago, JON SNOW said:

    Looking at the Gfs 0z operational it’s still very much game on for a thundery breakdown on Friday which is also a very warm and humid day although not as hot as today & tomorrow which are scorchers..up around 90F...!!?

    B3B2ACD1-FB7D-4203-A171-56CACA91C0CD.thumb.png.773e481f934e9e8e16200df1a65f3a63.pngDC8391A8-38D0-4902-A80F-4FFA829AE8E8.thumb.png.05248faa8de3c27b35395617d9813a89.png38E796BD-865C-48AA-A53D-652C4B28BBAB.thumb.png.b1e58957074ad6b7ab837a45914e15aa.png47F640FD-A5A1-4149-A696-90F61CF67BA6.thumb.png.8c67a72d3fb8b3532688ab906ab5c516.png

    Usual setup though, my area does badly with thunder/lightning off this setup, plumes nearly always break down with a whimper, unlike areas in the east

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    Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL

    Lack of comments on the extended output says it all.

    Unsettled out to day 10 at least. 

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedworth
  • Weather Preferences: No Extremes Of Any Kind
  • Location: Bedworth
    1 hour ago, JON SNOW said:

    Looking at the Gfs 0z operational it’s still very much game on for a thundery breakdown on Friday which is also a very warm and humid day although not as hot as today & tomorrow which are scorchers..up around 90F...!!?

    B3B2ACD1-FB7D-4203-A171-56CACA91C0CD.thumb.png.773e481f934e9e8e16200df1a65f3a63.pngDC8391A8-38D0-4902-A80F-4FFA829AE8E8.thumb.png.05248faa8de3c27b35395617d9813a89.png38E796BD-865C-48AA-A53D-652C4B28BBAB.thumb.png.b1e58957074ad6b7ab837a45914e15aa.png47F640FD-A5A1-4149-A696-90F61CF67BA6.thumb.png.8c67a72d3fb8b3532688ab906ab5c516.png

    these charts must be taken with a bit caution as GFS tends to overdo these things , we shall see though and good for East Anglia and the East in general IF it manages to come off

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
    43 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

    Lack of comments on the extended output says it all.

    Unsettled out to day 10 at least. 

     

    Yes, NW Britain looks wet ,very little rain for the SE as far as i can see though so regional variations will apply.

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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heatwaves and electrical storms, and fidgid Arctic type winters
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level

    Arpege is hot... 33c possibly 34c possible during the next couple of days.. ECM mean perhaps a traditional N/S split over the coming days... Pressure out to day 14 remains around 1016mb in the South... So not overly unsettled would be my call. Enjoy your days ☀️?

    xx_model-en-330-0_modfra_2020062400_15_18_1.png

    xx_model-en-330-0_modfra_2020062400_39_18_1.png

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    Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
    12 hours ago, 2010cold said:

    How does the south part of the Birmingham area look for storms on Friday? I am specific with my location because on Saturday 13th, overhead storms hit the city centre, but we just got rumbles.

    No one can give you that detail especially this far out

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    Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
    1 hour ago, mountain shadow said:

    Lack of comments on the extended output says it all.

    Unsettled out to day 10 at least. 

     

    Is that so...?

    ecmt850.144.png ecmt850.168.png

    It's not much I know, but still an appreciable break in the weather for England & Wales (but hard luck for most of Scotland ?).

    I realise the GFS 00z is not so kind but my point is, the potential is very much there for a variable regime rather than a persistently unsettled one.

    GWO_members_current.png

    CFSv2 Predicted AAM trends suggest reaching phase 4, to initiate an upward climb into 5 favouring more high pressure through the UK, is still a possibility. As is a shortfall on that... we just can't be sure which way it will go.

    Using AAM projections is admittedly not a huge forecasting gain when we're in situations such as we are now. Conversely, there are times, when AAM is following a clear cycle (which usually means the lines in the plot shown above are orbiting outside the middle circle), that significantly increased confidence can be placed in model runs that show developments corresponding to such AAM behavior. 

    Even during this 'weaker' time, AAM analysis tells me enough to consider a persistently unsettled outcome to be less probable than one featuring some settled interludes. This being despite strong model support for high pressure to affect a large part of the Arctic, which tends to make it more difficult for us to hold onto settled weather.

    Overall, I'm inclined to expect at least two thirds of next week to be unsettled. Not a great prognosis, but it could be worse.

    image.thumb.png.12effef9cd5942ddcfe4f07114dad6a5.png

    That Arctic high signal is really something - and very concerning with respect to the sea ice in the central basin.

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
    1 minute ago, Singularity said:

    Is that so...?

    ecmt850.144.png ecmt850.168.png

    It's not much I know, but still an appreciable break in the weather for England & Wales (but hard luck for most of Scotland ?).

    I realise the GFS 00z is not so kind but my point is, the potential is very much there for a variable regime rather than a persistently unsettled one.

    GWO_members_current.png

    CFSv2 Predicted AAM trends suggest reaching phase 4, to initiate an upward climb into 5 favouring more high pressure through the UK, is still a possibility. As is a shortfall on that... we just can't be sure which way it will go.

    Using AAM projections is admittedly not a huge forecasting gain when we're in situations such as we are now. Conversely, there are times, when AAM is following a clear cycle (which usually means the lines in the plot shown above are orbiting outside the middle circle), that significantly increased confidence can be placed in model runs that show developments corresponding to such AAM behavior. 

    Even during this 'weaker' time, AAM analysis tells me enough to consider a persistently unsettled outcome to be less probable than one featuring some settled interludes. This being despite strong model support for high pressure to affect a large part of the Arctic, which tends to make it more difficult for us to hold onto settled weather.

    Overall, I'm inclined to expect at least two thirds of next week to be unsettled. Not a great prognosis, but it could be worse.

    image.thumb.png.12effef9cd5942ddcfe4f07114dad6a5.png

    That Arctic high signal is really something - and very concerning with respect to the sea ice in the central basin.

    That above chart should come with a health warning...

    Blocking highs pretty much in the last place summer fans would want them..

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    Posted
  • Location: Chapmanslade, Wiltshire + Charente, France
  • Location: Chapmanslade, Wiltshire + Charente, France
    2 hours ago, General Cluster said:

    A lot of scatter, in today's GEFS 00Z ensembles, once we enter July; so, a changeable set-up looks assured, and attempting any day-to-day analysis is futile:?

     

     

    Uncertain rather than changeable. A lot of scatter doesn't mean unsettled, just that the outcome is uncertain

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    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
    2 hours ago, mb018538 said:

    D9A0A9D4-84F9-46C2-8F9D-F5E7E21DDCC5.thumb.png.70c492258bc312c209fe6ad43fe1019c.pngEEDD0237-F0AB-4578-B9A8-EE17C7060C2A.thumb.png.06e9010b4e127227e57673b01533a0f3.png5C153680-47AA-4614-B58B-AA6DE09A32D2.thumb.png.a8e545ae0c3368ae90e8ba420dea57ac.png55C56818-7686-40FB-B362-6CBA6285E2DA.thumb.png.f27ff505cdde532082d66c23ff2c2941.png
     

    Bit of an eyebrow raiser from the ecm this morning! ?

    Another common Tue to Thu heat spike

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    Well, shiver me timbers, prospects for Saturday have improved a tad: low to mid twenties and some interesting (possibly even thundery?) LPs away to the west and southwest::oldgrin:

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    Ooooo, does this not look interesting, for next Tuesday??

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

    And (and I'm not trying to be funny, here) it's all well within the 'envelope'!:oldgood:

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