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Model Output Discussion - Into Summer 2020.


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22 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Thundery breakdown still there on ECM and GFS this morning for Friday? 

8003E196-35BF-4DBD-B29E-7478C5EE373C.jpeg

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these thing are notoriously unpredictable , sometimes showing on models then on the day disappearing from every forecast and vice versa 

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These sort of comments are ridiculous if I may say so 10 days into meteorological summer, really!

The upcoming period has been well advertised, as a changeable flatter downstream spell of weather, and for the forthcoming period at least, the pattern stays amplified across the Pacific c/o low frequ

That is a somewhat parochial assessment if I may say so.    As posted recently, these numerical model products derive data from some of the algorithms used in what is called the Global Synoptic Dynami

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11 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

I wouldn't say robbed, because we all know that thundery breakdowns are very rare. I never expect them, no matter what the models are showing.

The big scatter only highlights the uncertainty, so I still think all options are on the table. I certainly wouldn't bank on the 00z runs being correct.

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Quite - when day 7 looks like this, you could end up with anything over the UK. The best thing about the runs today is that the low is generally enough out of the way to prevent a deluge for most. The NW will be wetter as you’d expect:

0A3369FA-0C1E-480B-87A0-3E43D3DE545D.thumb.png.305a5858e9ef9cefa8f4b1912319f8f9.png

Edited by mb018538
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11 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

C33E00B1-C707-4843-805A-E6ED93D83496.thumb.png.b67059ede46f0f05354d527c27bd4ca8.png

Quite - when day 7 looks like this, you could end up with anything over the UK. The best thing about the runs today is that the low is generally enough out of the way to prevent a deluge for most. The NW will be wetter as you’d expect:

0A3369FA-0C1E-480B-87A0-3E43D3DE545D.thumb.png.305a5858e9ef9cefa8f4b1912319f8f9.png

Traditional NW split.

A more changable outlook beckons though, the 00z runs much less enclined to lift the troughing north.

As an aside its very disappointing imby again today,moderate cloud cover much as yesterday..

Edited by northwestsnow
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I actually like the look of the GFS 06z I'm expecting something along those lines. With the AAM around neutral as are other background signals the NW/SE split is the favoured option. I'm concerned about Friday though doesn't look hot anymore

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56 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

 

As an aside its very disappointing imby again today,moderate cloud cover much as yesterday..

That was always expected today though in the morning for the Manchester area. It's clearing nicely around here.

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Looking at the GEFS 6z / GFS 6z op the heat & humidity is gone by Saturday, it’s turning cooler / fresher from the west but still warm further s / se into the low 20’s c and then next week it’s a.... n / s or nw / se split with the north cooler and more changeable whereas there’s some ridging influence across the south from the Azores and heights further south so I would think southern areas would be predominantly pleasantly warm with plenty of fine weather..longer term there is better potential for a return of much more summery conditions under high pressure / strong ridging from the Azores.

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Edited by JON SNOW
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12 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

Thank you, @Tamara and @JON SNOW et al, for bringing a semblance of common-sense to what has been a litany of negative hyperbole, so far today... IMO, all the knee-jerk responses to each and every model-run is entirely counter-productive...??

that also goes the other way , it's not only negative posts that happens with , they're plenty of examples of heat and especially convective weather been ramped up by some based on a single run or model , it's not the one way street it's been portrayed to be and before the heat and potential storms later this week is thrown at me you don't have to go very far back to find some examples

Edited by Gordon Webb
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22 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

Thank you, @Tamara and @JON SNOW et al, for bringing a semblance of common-sense to what has been a litany of negative hyperbole, so far today... IMO, all the knee-jerk responses to each and every model-run are entirely counter-productive...??

If they have been viewing icon Pete I can understand there concerns.. ? It's awful and hopefully doesn't get to much support, but it's one operational run that paints a bad picture, lets see what GFS and UKMO have to say. ?

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58 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

Thank you, @Tamara and @JON SNOW et al, for bringing a semblance of common-sense to what has been a litany of negative hyperbole, so far today... IMO, all the knee-jerk responses to each and every model-run are entirely counter-productive...??

Equally there has been an awful amount of hyperbole over a 3 day hot spell in June, yes June!

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8 minutes ago, ribster said:

Equally there has been an awful amount of hyperbole over a 3 day hot spell in June, yes June!

That's why I only mentioned 'hyperbole' in its generic form... :oldgrin:

Anywho, next Tuesday looks like it could be okay::oldgood:

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

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Big difference between UKMO and GFS at T144:

image.thumb.jpg.b415beee62fda87af078ca6e2fe53b67.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.c13e6d5115eca0754ad87fe23b1ef5f0.jpg

Obviously UKMO preferred for prolonging the fine weather.  But the origins of this are earlier, T96:

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How GFS gets that deep a low is extraordinary.  I suspect that is wrong, we wait for GEM which seems delayed, and ECM.

Edit: GEM is worse at T96:

image.thumb.jpg.fa932b80914d5b23164a5b3f09da7905.jpg

Edited by Mike Poole
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Now, wouldn't this be great... if it happens! It probably won't, but that's the point -- hyperbole is fine, so long as it's model-run hyperbole, and not some half-assed attempt at a weather forecast: model runs are one thing; the real weather is another...??

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And, as an aside, yesterday and today were such fantastic days for working outside, I think I'll start my own one-man two-tone band!:oldlaugh:

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Really uninspiring fayre on offer on tonight’s 12z runs....succession of low pressures rolling in off the Atlantic from Friday onwards, with only fleeting drier spells. Looks more like October than the height of summer!

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1 hour ago, Mike Poole said:

Big difference between UKMO and GFS at T144:

image.thumb.jpg.b415beee62fda87af078ca6e2fe53b67.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.c13e6d5115eca0754ad87fe23b1ef5f0.jpg

Obviously UKMO preferred for prolonging the fine weather.  But the origins of this are earlier, T96:

image.thumb.jpg.532d16a84956773ea65faf4dee67cf4b.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.21414dc34d9f634d4e4690b216ca0101.jpg

How GFS gets that deep a low is extraordinary.  I suspect that is wrong, we wait for GEM which seems delayed, and ECM.

Edit: GEM is worse at T96:

image.thumb.jpg.fa932b80914d5b23164a5b3f09da7905.jpg

GEM run is bloody awful, succession of low pressures piling on through. GFS a little better in the near term with a brief ridge into early next which has some mediocre support from its ensembles but then goes like GEM and looks more like early October than high summer. Still with some uncertainty there's a chance of a few surprises so hopefully something more positive will crop up tomorrow!

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Well I must admit that the GFS 12Z ens, for Suffolk, are nae too bad -- when one recalls that Suffolk is not in The Algarve!:oldlaugh:

t850Suffolk.png    prmslSuffolk.png

t2mSuffolk.png    prcpSuffolk.png

Isn't 'average, something close to what we expect?? Were the GFS 12Z suggesting 11C, a continual northerly gale and torrential rain, I too would be pithed-off!:shok:

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ECM 96 is not going the GFS route at this point, which is a relief!  It's very similar to the UKMO both in location and depth of the low.  Looks like a GFS overreaction hopefully.

image.thumb.png.9757a3bd99c5d0e287fa4a09d23dd3ea.png     image.thumb.png.120b4d2591218b8e15e696e271ebc284.pngimage.thumb.png.e5678e8daaf76391455ec80edb030f2e.png   

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