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Model Output Discussion - Into Summer 2020.


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Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth
    12 minutes ago, viking_smb said:

    I hope that is the case, as i want a decent nights sleep on thurs as working friday.

    You might be the only one on here not hoping for storms ? 

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    These sort of comments are ridiculous if I may say so 10 days into meteorological summer, really!

    The upcoming period has been well advertised, as a changeable flatter downstream spell of weather, and for the forthcoming period at least, the pattern stays amplified across the Pacific c/o low frequ

    That is a somewhat parochial assessment if I may say so.    As posted recently, these numerical model products derive data from some of the algorithms used in what is called the Global Synoptic Dynami

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
    3 hours ago, NApplewhite said:

    Its a 3 fine days and a thunderstorm for North West England and Wales! Typical! its been a very strange June! back to the cold weather next week for us northern folk! 

    Bet you could’ve got used to that epic setup last week. I didn’t want it to end!! A proper old school thundery setup like the 90’s were. 

    Hopefully we will see something similar again this summer. End of GFS does at the moment! 

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth

    The GFS Ops run post the 30th is almost meaningless in a massive spread for the last 7days of the run. Might as well pick a number from 1-20 out a hat and see what ensemble you get!!

     

     

    gfs-bournemouth-gb-505n (4).jpeg

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    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
    2 minutes ago, Alderc said:

    The GFS Ops run post the 30th is almost meaningless in a massive spread for the last 7days of the run. Might as well pick a number from 1-20 out a hat and see what ensemble you get!!

     

     

    gfs-bournemouth-gb-505n (4).jpeg

    My word, there is some serious scatter on that!

    Edited by Djdazzle
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    Posted
  • Location: Bedworth
  • Weather Preferences: No Extremes Of Any Kind
  • Location: Bedworth
    15 minutes ago, Alderc said:

    You might be the only one on here not hoping for storms ? 

    Nope I'm the second don't like and don't want them especially on Friday , want to celebrate Birthday in peace

    so that's Two not wanting against how many Hundreds that do ?

    Edited by Gordon Webb
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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Anything out of the ordinary!
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
    15 minutes ago, Alderc said:

    The GFS Ops run post the 30th is almost meaningless in a massive spread for the last 7days of the run. Might as well pick a number from 1-20 out a hat and see what ensemble you get!!

     

     

    gfs-bournemouth-gb-505n (4).jpeg

    I think that exacerbates things with the scale on the left. The same chart below doesn’t look anywhere near as extreme.

    AD23A52D-AB85-4EF3-A906-7478CEF5C55A.thumb.png.a4945af43b03a3cd1805fffff448cf56.png

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    Posted
  • Location: London
  • Location: London

    I hope we see some storms on Thursday night or Friday evening. 
     

    I don’t hold out much hope though, haven’t seen a decent thunderstorm in London since May 2018. Hopefully 2020 sees a return to some classic storms.

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    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: thunderstorms, heatwaves, extreme weather
  • Location: Sheffield
    23 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

    I think that exacerbates things with the scale on the left. The same chart below doesn’t look anywhere near as extreme.

    AD23A52D-AB85-4EF3-A906-7478CEF5C55A.thumb.png.a4945af43b03a3cd1805fffff448cf56.png

    It is notable though that, even with the usual FI scatter, there isn't a single 'cluster' there with a unique variety of options. I think that's what @Alderc was referring to ?

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth
    20 minutes ago, Kid Thunder said:

    It is notable though that, even with the usual FI scatter, there isn't a single 'cluster' there with a unique variety of options. I think that's what @Alderc was referring to ?

    Yes quite, they are all over the place, criss crossing day by day. But also on the scale, not much point using an axis outside the seasonal range, below 0c at 850 is unusual past the middle of June until October here so not much point showing -30c which has happened never....

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, warm/hot plumes, snow, anything severe
  • Location: Bedfordshire

    192 is a beaut!

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    Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

    Well the ECM at 144 has the same low as the UKMO, but by 168 it's pulling north and weakening, opening the gates for a renewed push of warmth from the south by 192.  It's quite complex and messy by this stage though, so treat this run with even more caution for days 9 and 10 

    image.thumb.png.685b840740d02bce7add4e75c7e9a81b.pngimage.thumb.png.6b86db0b85926b4e145f1c466dff69ea.pngimage.thumb.png.dddfb04396faf1719ca40f2515f072fc.png

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, warm/hot plumes, snow, anything severe
  • Location: Bedfordshire

    216

    Definitely some warmth building there, GFS picked up on it too...

    ECM1-216.gif   2115925814_ECM0-216(1).thumb.gif.2943673558d292bf8938764077941517.gif

    Edited by Zak M
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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heatwaves and electrical storms, and fidgid Arctic type winters
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level

    Still looking pretty good.. 

    ECM1-216.gif

    EnergeticHonoredAsiandamselfly-size_restricted.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level

    LOL..

    EC cancels the breakdown for the SE and its a toppler breakdown for the rest of us ?

    Edited by northwestsnow
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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    9 minutes ago, Alderc said:

    Yes quite, they are all over the place, criss crossing day by day. But also on the scale, not much point using an axis outside the seasonal range, below 0c at 850 is unusual past the middle of June until October here so not much point showing -30c which has happened never....

    The only reason for choosing an unfamiliar scale, as far as I can see, is so as to exaggerate your point of view... by making a bog-standard spread look like it's  outlandishly exceptional??

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  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heatwaves and electrical storms, and fidgid Arctic type winters
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level

    Ohhhh lordy.. Heights are appearing everywhere, and again it still looks good in the South... ?

    ECM1-240 (1).gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Anything out of the ordinary!
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    C605DBA4-1EAF-4FE2-816A-769AC14A3D3E.thumb.png.f9cea48a258f34004bcabcdda8c22c23.png

    ECM isn’t bad at all, and although there is high pressure over the pole again by day 10, it also has a big plunging trough out in the Atlantic at day 10 like the gfs. Azores high in a similar position and just waiting to build in too. One I’ll be watching very closely.

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    Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

    ECM parallel has decided to to not rebel against its older brother tonight.

    image.thumb.gif.e1c065ac07ad93b6c34417fcd711ba4c.gifimage.thumb.gif.50905058917ed59300fdbb5a65fdcc66.gifimage.thumb.gif.bb29bcc3d298fbccdac5c181d2589b75.gif   
     

    A west - based -NAO on both where the jet stream is orientated north of east and subsequently allowing warmer weather to push in from south west at times. 

    Edited by Captain Shortwave
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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth
    6 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

    The only reason for choosing an unfamiliar scale, as far as I can see, is so as to exaggerate your point of view... by making a bog-standard spread look like it's  outlandishly exceptional??

    I don’t choose anything, that’s how it defaults when I save the image??? 
     

    there’s a 10-15c spread on the ensembles I showed with zero clustering, that’s all the point I was trying to make. Can you pick any trend out? 

    Edited by Alderc
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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level

    Yes EC parallel also kicks the trough north mid term...

    Has EC tapped into a change of direction???

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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
    12 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

    Yes EC parallel also kicks the trough north mid term...

    Has EC tapped into a change of direction???

    Too much scatter beyond the 144hr timeframe at present, expect swings and roundabouts from models run to run. In the short term - heights building through the UK - a surge of very warm uppers on a continental flow, then a case of seeing how the ridge is broken down by the atlantic trough to the west.

    Heights building over the Pole not a great sign longer term - atlantic trough destined for the UK will be a major threat.

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