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Polar Maritime

Model Output Discussion - Into Summer 2020.

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Zak M said:

06z GFS is showing a brief warm up on day 7

gfseuw-0-174.png

Dreadful charts at end of next week ! image.thumb.png.ec0bd025e7ea72a5372fc24bd2e63012.pngimage.thumb.png.c00bdd0eadaac6a60e95b73f15bab343.png Then a sign of the Azores high nosing in by the 6th July . Then low pressure returns by the 8th/9th image.thumb.png.e73ee6a36cb850c87240d10d2cd11d65.pngimage.thumb.png.6ec859301ae2a45f7d80d760da8bb154.png ECMWF showing washout next wednesday 1st July 

Manchester_220620_030720.PNGimage.thumb.png.cb0876326bdf9e873cf9d3479e17ca79.png

Edited by NApplewhite

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55 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

64F3785C-8531-45DB-9A13-1456A3077F49.thumb.png.ea33f3616cd8f5431061371cb0ff40b6.png

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.shtml

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.shtml

Have to admit that going forward this is a bit of a concern into July. Haven’t seen much of it this summer so far, but northern blocking and -AO/-NAO is starting to show its head now. With a trough in our neck of the woods it’s not a great sign IMO.

 

I'm not ready to pay attention to that yet. Didn't we see things pointing towards Northern Blocking at the beginning of June which lead a lot of us down the garden path into thinking June would be a write off? 

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4 minutes ago, 38.7°C said:

I'm not ready to pay attention to that yet. Didn't we see things pointing towards Northern Blocking at the beginning of June which lead a lot of us down the garden path into thinking June would be a write off? 

Its a 3 fine days and a thunderstorm for North West England and Wales! Typical! its been a very strange June! back to the cold weather next week for us northern folk! 

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7 minutes ago, NApplewhite said:

Its a 3 fine days and a thunderstorm for North West England and Wales! Typical! its been a very strange June! back to the cold weather next week for us northern folk! 

Cold??

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Posted (edited)

Nae bad from the GEFS 6z..May not be long wait for the next 2 heatwaves..!!??..shameless ? picking?

050A3F36-12F5-472F-83C2-7F72C8D50754.thumb.png.c5519cd2b326b609174aa2bf8cf70b50.pngD80A6089-21B4-4EF8-AF43-BAF32FF8F1AC.thumb.png.27211d5a6ab00019a15301641deb4a31.pngE18A2783-B57C-480F-8024-5866ED39627F.thumb.png.34afd9341bfc5b22d86e4c0d54fa8fa6.png6AE9898A-7882-4C9F-923F-3773522BAFE9.thumb.png.011c96123ceaccbceb27da9901340192.pngB36003DA-2DEE-42EC-9D9D-B3DF05C426E3.thumb.png.ecf532d6b3338db9c50d8ebcf8c4b496.pngF42FC339-F390-4C21-BF25-BF3D0175C774.thumb.png.5a283279b09fbd5c584403af5c800127.png0EAA6FE3-0684-4282-8926-2D14B2526941.thumb.png.53d993276bf5f6fc5ca4f23465ed7496.png7306A11D-4CD5-44DE-BF95-56DE73F2EE1C.thumb.png.4dbf5cce0b40005bcd58de9404d42f7a.pngB0D46F45-C233-4F77-B6FA-F8B77CBDF89D.thumb.png.9bc702fa774a82ff5a439487e97614e2.png159543BF-63DF-4136-BABA-18B5D94F6DC0.thumb.png.7a271a34024740d35acf00e61f237d4f.png

Edited by JON SNOW
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ECM clusters:

D7 split 53:47 in favour of trough centred 5W/56N versus 10W/61N

Going further out by a couple of days, about a quarter show Greeny heights building nicely (or not nicely if you want settled weather here!) and a SCUK trough. The other two clusters show heights to S or SW of UK, giving a N/S split.

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The Icon after a more unsettled spell this Weekend builds High Pressure again come day 7..looking pretty good in the South once again.. Hopefully our more NW folks and members can get a little more joy before much longer. ??

icon-0-96.png

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Interesting to see the UKV showing the highest temps on Thursday to be West of London, more Reading to Oxford and Westward towards Gloucester/Worcester.

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Well, the GFS 12Z op has Wednesday down as a scorcher!:yahoo:

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

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1 minute ago, Mapantz said:

Interesting to see the UKV showing the highest temps on Thursday to be West of London, more Reading to Oxford and Westward towards Gloucester/Worcester.

Yep if you look closely there’s an easterly flow up the Thames, Heathrow will probably win out but a widespread 30c+ day With the east coast a touch cooler.

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Posted (edited)

Hmm the GFS 12z is doing something different with that low in the Atlantic at +72

 

edit: quite a difference in the jet too, 12z first 

4BE07431-6D91-41B9-A50F-0B5C7478DD75.thumb.png.5e1909ae4d24ab15eb76e647a95a112c.png1665119D-E515-497D-80BE-A462690CA2D1.thumb.png.10ccabd0f9cc194e64011f28e69b00f7.png

Edited by Ross Andrew Hemphill

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image.thumb.gif.f93b7d3be52214aaa6a87819a5e0bbfd.gif

Oh hello October.....I mean June

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Friday, on the face of it, looks like being packed with thundery potential...??

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

But, as we all know, appearances can be deceiving!:unsure2:

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4 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

Friday, on the face of it, looks like being packed with thundery potential...??

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

But, as we all know, appearances can be deceiving!:unsure2:

36C604F1-4218-47F9-A45C-E1DBA07D6CF7.thumb.png.e1b32396fd5b4a2463d48cfc1a4bb0da.png5A9ABEC5-1CAD-4EB4-A4AD-12C77B6DAF58.thumb.png.24c161561e1fcca229fd1f1196acd611.png
 

You would be absolutely correct - all the ingredients for some epic storms there. Heat in situ, and cooler air and low pressure moving in from the west. CAPE and LI will be high. I’d wager a bet some places will see some monumental storms Friday.

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2 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

Friday, on the face of it, looks like being packed with thundery potential...??

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

But, as we all know, appearances can be deceiving!:unsure2:

Indeed...and as this is a continental sourced wave...the heat could be a stubborn plot to shift...

that being in between=after any charged atmospheric drop in...(storms)

As the 5=7day crosses....a huge majority are beginning to quickly re=install HP to the UK....

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9 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

image.thumb.gif.f93b7d3be52214aaa6a87819a5e0bbfd.gif

Oh hello October.....I mean June

Yes not a pretty chart from UKMET model at 144...

I posted previously i was not keen on the trend to high latitude blocking and the above illustrates clearly why.

That said, after a glorious April and May and a reasonable June ,it might be worth remembering we don't reside in Southern Spain and cooler unsettled interludes in most summers is hardly uncommon.

So,after this weeks heat and hopefully a few juicy storms, a breakdown to something more unsettled and cooler looks inevitable.

Question being for how long,a week or two wouldn't bother me in the slightest,a month or two,different matter alltogether.

 

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15 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Yes not a pretty chart from UKMET model at 144...

I posted previously i was not keen on the trend to high latitude blocking and the above illustrates clearly why.

That said, after a glorious April and May and a reasonable June ,it might be worth remembering we don't reside in Southern Spain and cooler unsettled interludes in most summers is hardly uncommon.

So,after this weeks heat and hopefully a few juicy storms, a breakdown to something more unsettled and cooler looks inevitable.

Question being for how long,a week or two wouldn't bother me in the slightest,a month or two,different matter alltogether.

 

Looks better on the 12z mate!!that was the 00z!!looks like the hight might lift over the uk from 144 hours onwards!!

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, General Cluster said:

Friday, on the face of it, looks like being packed with thundery potential...??

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

But, as we all know, appearances can be deceiving!:unsure2:

You'd think so and with lots of CAPE you'd expect so however GFS only really breaks some moderate showery rain, no show of an MCS tracking up through France either Thursday or Friday evening. Will need to wait for the finer mesh models to come into range. Currently there's little evidence of a sharp front to fully destabilise things, more just an ebbing away of the warmth. 

Edited by Alderc
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027AD18F-9EC9-4654-B9A0-9F11D2B2A0E9.thumb.jpeg.67e532f00f2745aedd2aa6082f3a3958.jpegC54B653E-92C9-49C4-AF01-B31C458BDB20.thumb.png.668261d1f12211f5d98d1a0a6855a0da.png

GFS 12z shows the way out to something more settled. Got the marker pen out on the chart above to show how a deep trough drops down off the eastern seaboard, which encourages the ridge ahead to build over the UK a few days later. Interestingly much less northern blocking than the ecm.

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Well, I'd certainly take this, at T+318!:oldlaugh: But, seriously, it's the continued absence of any major Greenland blocking that pleases me most::oldgood:

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

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BBC very bullish about remaining very warm on Friday and calling for it to be the hottest day of the week. Also they are clearly showing 31C for Birmingham on Thursday, GFS only shows 25/26C.

However GFS is a million times better in the latter stages of its 12Z - you'd fancy that to be a proper outlier and with a full Azores high breakoff to the north east with heat being pumped north from the Spanish plateau - a proper plume! 

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29 minutes ago, Alderc said:

You'd think so and with lots of CAPE you'd expect so however GFS only really breaks some moderate showery rain, no show of an MCS tracking up through France either Thursday or Friday evening. Will need to wait for the finer mesh models to come into range. Currently there's little evidence sharp front to fully destabilise things, more just an ebbing away of the warmth. 

I hope that is the case, as i want a decent nights sleep on thurs as working friday.

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A stonking end to today's GFS 12Z op...A big, humongous, crucial ECM coming up?:oldlaugh:

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

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1 minute ago, General Cluster said:

A stonking end to today's GFS 12Z op...A big, humongous, crucial ECM coming up?:oldlaugh:

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

Talk about big it up!!!!

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