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Model Output Discussion - Into Summer 2020.

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Djdazzle said:

I think we got a bit unlucky last year. Cloud bubbled up in London from around 1pm. I’m convinced we would have reached it otherwise. As the years progress, the synoptics needed to achieve it will become less special.

I’m pretty certain that 40C has already been achieved - just not at an official location.

I've said it before but I'd love to know what Gravesend would have recorded in the spell last year as it used to frequently be top dog with a Southerly flow before they scrapped the weather recording station. The sunshine lasted around  an hour or 2 longer here if I remember rightly compared to London for instance I will never know if we made 39c or even 40c last July with it no longer being recorded officially here?

Edited by Kentspur
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3 hours ago, Alderc said:

Do you mean mid July to mid Aug? There’s no way 40c is happening after mid Aug insolation and day length just isn’t Strong/long enough at 50° north. Late July is the sweet spot IMO. 

He lives in his own climate. 30C is more likely in early Feb than early August...

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5 hours ago, Kentspur said:

I've said it before but I'd love to know what Gravesend would have recorded in the spell last year as it used to frequently be top dog with a Southerly flow before they scrapped the weather recording station. The sunshine lasted around  an hour or 2 longer here if I remember rightly compared to London for instance I will never know if we made 39c or even 40c last July with it no longer being recorded officially here?

I’m pretty sure that Cambridge Botanical Gardens isn’t an official Weather recording Station. Their reading had to be verified before it was made an official record. If anywhere like Gravesend had exceeded this Temp we would of heard about it.. 

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The GFS are UKMO are both looking much better for Friday this morning. I'm fairly confident that most of us will have another hot day on Friday and even Saturday now looks better according to GFS.

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Posted (edited)

Nice that the ECM 0z operational manages to squeeze out an extra day of heat or at least very warm and humid conditions into Saturday, as does the Gfs 0z op but the main theme of the coming days is becoming sunny and increasingly hot and sticky with a growing chance of T-Storms..a really Mediterranean feeling spell, indeed the hottest week of the summer so far with 90f set to be reached further s / se later this week..perhaps a bit higher, some very uncomfortable nights though!?☀️???️..564 dam across n Scotland & n isles..now that is unusual!?
B532FA35-3164-4FDC-8F70-2597E33DEFEF.thumb.png.3e0a31c8d97f452a62bee5c62aa26a02.png

Edited by JON SNOW
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So its looking like the heat will peak on Thursday with a 32C possible somewhere, Arpege looking like it has the tiniest area of 35C around Reading @14Z however I think it's going to be a couple of degrees too high. Friday still looks warm for many now so I suspect 30C will be reached again. IMO its not even worth looking at the thundery breakdown until about Wednesday although its fair to say at the moment it looks as though somewhere will probably get a big lightshow either Thursday or Friday night (you might even be lucky and get both).

Beyond Saturday it looks a bit messy, upper trough looks being the best bet however more than a few outputs have some a weak push from the Azores high to settle things so I think its a case of lets wait a few days, enjoy the heat and hope the GFS from this morning doesn't come off post the weekend. 

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, tesaro said:

I’m pretty sure that Cambridge Botanical Gardens isn’t an official Weather recording Station. Their reading had to be verified before it was made an official record. If anywhere like Gravesend had exceeded this Temp we would of heard about it.. 

It is official, just a manual one which is why there was a delay in getting the readings and verifying them. I think the media would've been interested had it been announced on the day, but they weren't that interested once the verified reading came through about a week later and there was other news to worry about!

Edited by h2005__uk__
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22 minutes ago, Alderc said:

So its looking like the heat will peak on Thursday with a 32C possible somewhere, Arpege looking like it has the tiniest area of 35C around Reading @14Z however I think it's going to be a couple of degrees too high. Friday still looks warm for many now so I suspect 30C will be reached again. IMO its not even worth looking at the thundery breakdown until about Wednesday although its fair to say at the moment it looks as though somewhere will probably get a big lightshow either Thursday or Friday night (you might even be lucky and get both).

Beyond Saturday it looks a bit messy, upper trough looks being the best bet however more than a few outputs have some a weak push from the Azores high to settle things so I think its a case of lets wait a few days, enjoy the heat and hope the GFS from this morning doesn't come off post the weekend. 

well providing the S/Se get the lightshow this week I couldn't care less , I had enough of them last week

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7AFE5DDB-65A2-4AB8-A01B-55F9CD9AEF9F.thumb.png.0b51e2b5b59a0b91fc46fd39dbb3096b.png1C168F12-C02B-4273-80D6-FE1D626A09CF.thumb.png.e52e17d3abbec42866f4c8707e76076b.pngBC5F3473-4008-40D6-9FC7-6A4E1E514019.thumb.png.a63890b1126c1757e2f05fc1b7adbec0.png8F7B224A-5744-4A29-AD43-10A7650B441A.thumb.png.3bee64004129e5e26932ca71cbae8e65.png
 

Examples up to Thursday this week above. But with the models building High Pressure over to the East/North-East of the UK further into this week (and apart from Ireland and some North-Western spots at first), it’s looking ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever so slightly chilly this week... ?

E7A27360-17B3-4DB5-A5AC-9C433E10F02D.thumb.png.a2c189b35257d16e29bd6e81021eac04.png5CF042F8-55B1-4C1D-A5C6-8F65F4398D84.thumb.png.c5520a73715174c42b9dfa21bfc7fd8e.png3236DB30-B8CE-434F-A191-53164AC31DA0.thumb.png.d0b72c0b298042f3e5d7756b5d2ba3c5.png

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Hmmm, ECM and GFS both build Greenland heights from Saturday onwards, hopefully that's a trend that doesn't become prevalent. 

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Posted (edited)

Well having missed by in large the 12z runs yesterday I was pleased to see @Allseasons-si post the mighty Navgem . 
 

I am back today and pleased to say the Navgem has the Hairdryer turned up to the max . Still looking good this week so Enjoy ? .

 

 

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8933B320-9F94-4E3C-9D28-38CC26686E4B.png

Edited by Mark wheeler
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I did say last night gfs will join ukmo and ecm in extending the heat and its done that!!looking forward to the sun and storms but not the humid nights?

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Feels like the model runs are pulling options out of a hat at the moment, with respect to what goes on Fri-Sat. GFS shifted much less aggressive with the trough, but ECM and UKMO went slightly more so. GFS makes the western of the two secondary lows (of the trough) dominant, while ECM and UKMO give the eastern one the main say in things.

So, I'm not resting easy on that yet. Looks very sensitive to slight adjustments in starting conditions.

 

Speaking of uncertainty, it's vast in the longer range, as projections for AAM continue to flail about. The 00z operational ECM took it distinctly negative, but the previous few runs had it rising into the positive range instead. I've rarely been less sure what will happen in the next fortnight.

This lack of clear direction is captured perfectly by the two versions of the 00z ECM - operational and parallel. This is the most different I can recall seeing them since the parallel was started up:

ECH1-240.GIF ECH1-240.GIF

The disparity is already strong at +192. Yet at +168 there's much less difference, with both models showing a high over the Central Arctic Basin and a low just south of Iceland (but parallel not as close to the UK as operational). So, there looks to be a key fork in the road in about a week's time.

Unsurprisingly, what goes on in the N. Pacific and subsequently N. America is key. ECM operational amplifies the former, then latter, building strong high pressure northward from N. America, right across the W. Hemisphere Arctic. Parallel keeps the Pacific pattern flatter. Here we see the Pacific to UK weather link that Tamara explained on here yesterday.

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1 hour ago, sheikhy said:

I did say last night gfs will join ukmo and ecm in extending the heat and its done that!!looking forward to the sun and storms but not the humid nights?

Are you sure it's extended? It still looks like a Weds to Fri affair to me, which has been the case for a few days now. Thankfully less hot, but still warm by Saturday.

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Posted (edited)

The Gem doesn’t look to bad at all this morning and the heat only retreats slowly especially for those in the south and east . The heat actually Is never far away right up until the end of the run. For the north and west and N Ireland not so good however.

 

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04D6AA6B-5439-40BC-9578-DC90AFFF485A.png

Edited by Mark wheeler
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41 minutes ago, Paul_1978 said:

Are you sure it's extended? It still looks like a Weds to Fri affair to me, which has been the case for a few days now. Thankfully less hot, but still warm by Saturday.

Tomorrow is looking hot for many areas too, especially further south and east.

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48 minutes ago, Paul_1978 said:

Are you sure it's extended? It still looks like a Weds to Fri affair to me, which has been the case for a few days now. Thankfully less hot, but still warm by Saturday.

Still 27c out to next Monday if the GFS 06z is correct for those in the South East.

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1 hour ago, Singularity said:

Feels like the model runs are pulling options out of a hat at the moment, with respect to what goes on Fri-Sat. 

Yes, the usual weather websites/apps have been flip-flopping a bit for the E/SE, with this week's max for many areas outside of London flipping between 27 and 32C. Usually they'd be more certain at this timeframe, although they've now mostly settled on Friday as the hottest for this area.

E.g. for Chelmsford it's currently BBC 32C (Fri), WeatherPro 31C (Fri), weather.com 30C (Fri), MeteoBlue 29C (Fri & Sat), Metcheck 29C (Wed), MetO 29C (Fri), WeatherOnline 27C (Fri).

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Get your full English Breakfasts ready for Thursday according to Arpege you may be able to cook em on the pavements! ? Really going for it it with 34C in the offering.. ECM not so drastic but still hot. 

xx_model-en-330-0_modezrpd_2020062200_62_18_1.png

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tenor-14.gif

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06z GFS is showing a brief warm up on day 7

gfseuw-0-174.png

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64F3785C-8531-45DB-9A13-1456A3077F49.thumb.png.ea33f3616cd8f5431061371cb0ff40b6.png

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.shtml

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.shtml

Have to admit that going forward this is a bit of a concern into July. Haven’t seen much of it this summer so far, but northern blocking and -AO/-NAO is starting to show its head now. With a trough in our neck of the woods it’s not a great sign IMO.

 

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3 hours ago, sheikhy said:

I did say last night gfs will join ukmo and ecm in extending the heat and its done that!!looking forward to the sun and storms but not the humid nights?

Can't have one without the other.

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ECM ensembles still not letting go of the possibility of warmth persisting in the SE corner a little bit longer, though it's in the slightly smaller cluster now

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2020062200_144.

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Posted (edited)
52 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

64F3785C-8531-45DB-9A13-1456A3077F49.thumb.png.ea33f3616cd8f5431061371cb0ff40b6.png

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.shtml

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.shtml

Have to admit that going forward this is a bit of a concern into July. Haven’t seen much of it this summer so far, but northern blocking and -AO/-NAO is starting to show its head now. With a trough in our neck of the woods it’s not a great sign IMO.

 

Looking average going into July - slightly drier than normal image.thumb.png.015a85a75ce36810b7fab6377d9e361c.pngimage.thumb.png.0ef81bc0250ff91ae0ffc378b3274846.pngimage.thumb.png.3f0b925e25d9033b196ca1f9f5c18c74.pngimage.thumb.png.5cae1537bc3a05e0c3d7deb13ccc9dfd.pngimage.thumb.png.6ad6eec3d2fce289f22c920e6fc4f1c7.png Pressure to the SW - not good and low pressure over Eastern Europe and Scandi - not good for high temps with a NW wind from the Mid-Atlantic! No signs of any heatwaves in July. 

Edited by NApplewhite

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