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Model Output Discussion - Into Summer 2020.


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Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
    1 minute ago, weathermadbarnsleylad said:

    Just an hunch. I have a very very strong feeling 40oC could be breached at some point in the south this summer between now and August the 31st. Day 10 on ECM as +28 850hpa in Northern Spain. Only takes the correct movements and +20 850s could easily make it to the south coast. One to watch. 

    I think it’s possible. Wouldn’t say it’s a strong possibility though: needs a perfect setup and probably only possible over a period from mid July to mid August.

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    These sort of comments are ridiculous if I may say so 10 days into meteorological summer, really!

    The upcoming period has been well advertised, as a changeable flatter downstream spell of weather, and for the forthcoming period at least, the pattern stays amplified across the Pacific c/o low frequ

    That is a somewhat parochial assessment if I may say so.    As posted recently, these numerical model products derive data from some of the algorithms used in what is called the Global Synoptic Dynami

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    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
    3 minutes ago, weathermadbarnsleylad said:

    Just an hunch. I have a very very strong feeling 40oC could be breached at some point in the south this summer between now and August the 31st. Day 10 on ECM as +28 850hpa in Northern Spain. Only takes the correct movements and +20 850s could easily make it to the south coast. One to watch. 

    Aye, for that need a quiet Atlantic, warmest seas, southerly in place for at least 4 days, 40C will be reached on last day of spell before breakdown from SW or W, can see it only being possible from say mid Aug to mid Sept

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    Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Location: Bristol
    5 minutes ago, weathermadbarnsleylad said:

    Just an hunch. I have a very very strong feeling 40oC could be breached at some point in the south this summer between now and August the 31st. Day 10 on ECM as +28 850hpa in Northern Spain. Only takes the correct movements and +20 850s could easily make it to the south coast. One to watch. 

    This forum is really not a place for hunches or “I feel it in my bones”. Please stick with the models. Foolhardy chat is best served in the moan thread. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
    3 minutes ago, snowray said:

    I would agree with you there, GFS probably closer to the mark, plus a few extra degrees for afternoon max temps around 5pm.

     

    96-580UK.gif

    Definitely closer to the mark, but as you say, slightly low as always in these types of spells. I wouldn't rule out somewhere north of the Midlands seeing 30C before the week is out.

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth
    6 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

    Aye, for that need a quiet Atlantic, warmest seas, southerly in place for at least 4 days, 40C will be reached on last day of spell before breakdown from SW or W, can see it only being possible from say mid Aug to mid Sept

    Do you mean mid July to mid Aug? There’s no way 40c is happening after mid Aug insolation and day length just isn’t Strong/long enough at 50° north. Late July is the sweet spot IMO. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Anything out of the ordinary!
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
    16 minutes ago, Alderc said:

    Do you mean mid July to mid Aug? There’s no way 40c is happening after mid Aug insolation and day length just isn’t Strong/long enough at 50° north. Late July is the sweet spot IMO. 

    Yeah, I agree - maybe last 10/15 days of July and first 10 days of August is the smallish window we have for 40c, with enough daylight and the continent in peak summer heat.

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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heatwaves and electrical storms, and fidgid Arctic type winters
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
    22 minutes ago, draztik said:

    This forum is really not a place for hunches or “I feel it in my bones”. Please stick with the models. Foolhardy chat is best served in the moan thread. 

    I wouldn't call it foolhardy chat, those temperatures he mentions will only become increasingly more likely with each passing year, to the point it will know longer be such a big deal. 

    BACK TO THE MODELS MATT.. 

    ECM mean as you were, perhaps cooler next weekend and a tad more unsettled in places.. This is subject to uncertainty though.. The Azores High is never to far away, and appears to be flexing its pecs come day 10..all along way off though.. 

    Enjoy whats left of your evenings.. ☀️?

    EDM1-120.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, warm/hot plumes, snow, anything severe
  • Location: Bedfordshire
    26 minutes ago, draztik said:

    This forum is really not a place for hunches or “I feel it in my bones”. Please stick with the models. Foolhardy chat is best served in the moan thread. 

    Eh?

    As long as it doesn't completely drag the thread off topic, it's probably fine to do.

    Edited by Zak M
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    Posted
  • Location: manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Summer & Winter
  • Location: manchester
    8 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

    Yeah, I agree - maybe last 10/15 days of July and first 10 days of August is the smallish window we have for 40c, with enough daylight and the continent in peak summer heat.

    We could've hit 40C last June if conditions were right. Also dont forget 36C on July 1st 2015 . Id say the window for 40C would be Late June to Mid August. 

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    Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
    34 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

    I think it’s possible. Wouldn’t say it’s a strong possibility though: needs a perfect setup and probably only possible over a period from mid July to mid August.

    I reckon we are still in the realms of fantasy with even challenging the 40c mark being breached. 

    Last year we saw the most perfect opportunity to nail it. Despite breaking the all time record, it was still 1.3 degrees off it. That was with perfect uppers, wind direction and a nearby continent exceeding it. That last little increase from 38-40 is a huge challenge and a bigger amount than one may think. 

    Also many saying that this could become more common place are getting a little too carried away I feel. I wonder if people thought that in 2003, and then never really coming too close (except 2006 you could say) for another 15+ years. Last year was an exceptional extreme spell of weather that will likely not be repeated for a long while. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
    6 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

    I reckon we are still in the realms of fantasy with even challenging the 40c mark being breached. 

    Last year we saw the most perfect opportunity to nail it. Despite breaking the all time record, it was still 1.3 degrees off it. That was with perfect uppers, wind direction and a nearby continent exceeding it. That last little increase from 38-40 is a huge challenge and a bigger amount than one may think. 

    Also many saying that this could become more common place are getting a little too carried away I feel. I wonder if people thought that in 2003, and then never really coming too close (except 2006 you could say) for another 15+ years. Last year was an exceptional extreme spell of weather that will likely not be repeated for a long while. 

    I think we got a bit unlucky last year. Cloud bubbled up in London from around 1pm. I’m convinced we would have reached it otherwise. As the years progress, the synoptics needed to achieve it will become less special.

    I’m pretty certain that 40C has already been achieved - just not at an official location.

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    Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
    Just now, Djdazzle said:

    I think we got a bit unlucky last year. Cloud bubbled up in London from around 1pm. I’m convinced we would have reached it otherwise. As the years progress, the synoptics needed to achieve it will become less special.

    I’m pretty certain that 40C has already been achieved - just not at an official location.

    Going to be very interesting to see if it does. But I just think at our latitude and surrounding of cool waters, it won’t be easy, if possible at all. A very tall order.

    Im pretty sure Moscow only just achieved it back during that unprecedented Russian heatwave back in 2010. They had a much bigger advantage as well, with the absence of the surrounding waters. 

    Anyhow! I’m looking forward to the magical 30c being reached and the thunder hopefully to follow! 

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    Posted
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
  • Weather Preferences: Gales, T-storms, Heavy Rain, Heat, Cold - Love it all.
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.

    Can we get back on topic please? We have plenty of threads to talk solely about temp maximums.

    Cheers.

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    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

    Looking at the different ensembles on the ECM, the likely maximum this week will be between 31C and 33C. Small chance of 34C. June record 35.6C extremely unlikely to be challenged. 

    Possibly the third successive year that the final week of June has delivered a 33C, then - I doubt any specific week has ever achieved that before. 

    Edited by Man With Beard
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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

    T90 on pub run, more marginal than 12z but I think this might blow the low up still:

    image.thumb.jpg.ff84ec2ca9480641a599648cf4e7b30f.jpg

    Edit: it did! T126:

    image.thumb.jpg.7a45e74b45f618919a7eb0da42fd64fe.jpg

     

    Edited by Mike Poole
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    Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
    5 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

    T90 on pub run, more marginal than 12z but I think this might blow the low up still:

    image.thumb.jpg.ff84ec2ca9480641a599648cf4e7b30f.jpg

    Stick my neck out and say it shall join the ecm tomorrow morning!!

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
    1 minute ago, sheikhy said:

    Stick my neck out and say it shall join the ecm tomorrow morning!!

    I wouldn't bet against it!  Looks like it is going that way.

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level

    GFS 18z still very warm on Friday with 25 / 26 degrees as far north as manchester ..

    Storms around i hope!!

    Edited by northwestsnow
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    Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
    6 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

    I wouldn't bet against it!  Looks like it is going that way.

    You can tell at 90 hours on the gfs 18s that its edged that high to the east of the uk slightly further west and that little shortwave to the west further south!!!

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
    6 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

    GFS 18z still very warm on Friday with 25 / 26 degrees as far north as manchester ..

    Storms around i hope!!

    I think we would do a bit better than that on the ECM chart for Friday though- hope the GFS is being overly progressive.

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
    25 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

    GFS 18z still very warm on Friday with 25 / 26 degrees as far north as manchester ..

    Storms around i hope!!

    image.thumb.png.22a64225ad7a069bd3c2baca9f48a84b.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

    Perhaps the question for tomorrow morning shouldn't be will the GFS follow the ECM, but rather which of its own ensembles will the ECM follow? 

    ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2020062112_168.

    This for next Sunday. Looks rather like cluster 1 sticks with the solution the ECM op was trumpeting yesterday, with the trough to the north kept at bay allowing Southern areas to possibly keep some of the heat throughout the weekend, whilst cluster 2 is the more progressive solution we've seen from many op runs today. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Ward Green barnsley
  • Weather Preferences: Snow freezing fog heatwave thunderstorm
  • Location: Ward Green barnsley
    3 hours ago, draztik said:

    This forum is really not a place for hunches or “I feel it in my bones”. Please stick with the models. Foolhardy chat is best served in the moan thread. 

    If the post was not for here. It would have been moved by the forum host. Will keep to model chat in future. Edit by the way ECM day 10 12z was mentioned so was defo model chat. 

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