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Model Output Discussion - Into Summer 2020.


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These sort of comments are ridiculous if I may say so 10 days into meteorological summer, really!

The upcoming period has been well advertised, as a changeable flatter downstream spell of weather, and for the forthcoming period at least, the pattern stays amplified across the Pacific c/o low frequ

That is a somewhat parochial assessment if I may say so.    As posted recently, these numerical model products derive data from some of the algorithms used in what is called the Global Synoptic Dynami

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Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level

    Still no confidence in next week...

    GEM does pull the trough down as per UKMO but clears it south and we  do see the warm coninental airmass advertised by EC and GFS ..

    The issue here is its a more complicated route so ideally EC will be correct, although the suite suggests the det is a bit of an outlier.

    I would never personally go against UKMO so with that in mind i will sit on the fence, GFS 6Z while not a defining  moment might offer a clue as to which model is correct.

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    Posted
  • Location: Cirencester
  • Weather Preferences: Supercells
  • Location: Cirencester
    34 minutes ago, chapmanslade said:

    Yes and two days ago we were going to be 'locked in' to a cool damp period extending to most of June ! (Not posted by you I hasten to add)

    If ever there was a reason to stop jumping on individual runs at 10 days this is it !

    What if we are still 'locked in' for a dire month and it is just that the current runs don't show it unanimously? Surely then this comment is doing the same thing in reverse???  This isn't the long range positivity management forum it's the model output discussion - with a lot of discussion on each single modem run.

     

    Things on a knife edge with the big hitters diverging right now! More runs needed as ever

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  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heatwaves and electrical storms, and fidgid Arctic type winters
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level

    UKMO maybe  a slight concern but it's only out to day 6,things could improve pretty quickly beyond that... One of 2 things will happen today.. UKMO and GEM will jump on board with ECM.. or the ECM will jump ship to the UKMO.. we may have a clearer answer come the 12s..but the EURO model looks top draw I must say. 

    Ignore the beach picture we certainly don't want social distancing measures flouted like that.. ?

    ECM1-96.gif

    ECM1-120.gif

    ECM1-168 (1).gif

    ECM1-192.gif

    ECM1-240 (1).gif

    ECM0-240 (1).gif

    43389120.jpg

    Edited by MATT☀️
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    Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester

    Gfs you beaaaaautyyyyy!!!!sticks tiwo fingers up at ukmo!!!high builds in perfectly!!beware of sudden change in 12zs though!!gfs has a habit of doing this!!

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  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
    8 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

    Going to say right now the gfs 06z is not even close to the ukmo at 96 hours!!!no trough dropping at all!!

    GFS says no to UKMO....

    A small nod in the direction of EC but seasoned model watchers will be wary until UKMO model is onboard...

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  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
    1 minute ago, sheikhy said:

    Gfs you beaaaaautyyyyy!!!!sticks tiwo fingers up at ukmo!!!high builds in perfectly!!beware of sudden change in 12zs though!!gfs has a habit of doing this!!

    yes until UKMO on board, happened before I think, EC and GFS been wrong over ukmo

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  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
    1 minute ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

    yes until UKMO on board, happened before I think, EC and GFS been wrong over ukmo

    I have a little more confidence in that GFS was broadly supported by its ensembles.

    But I want to see the UKMO 12z before I get my hopes up. Something has to give!

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  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers with thunderstorms, stormy or fog/frost autumns, cold winters
  • Location: Bedfordshire

    Hello chalk

    image.thumb.png.5dd8953eee2b8b2a647eb2ac9e9b1886.png

    I'd like to introduce you to cheese

    image.thumb.png.801fd317da91d2feb958a0d8f459264c.png

    Although, away from the UK and Iceland there are actually a lot of similarities!

    And, as said before, even with that UKMO 144 chart, it's headed SW so we'll end up warm and, possibly, thundery by 192 hours anyway

    Edited by LRD
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  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heatwaves and electrical storms, and fidgid Arctic type winters
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level

    It's turned out nice again Mother.. ?

    gfs-0-96.png

    gfs-0-120.png

    gfs-0-144.png

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  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heatwaves and electrical storms, and fidgid Arctic type winters
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level

    It's almost a similar set up to where we started in the memorable Summer of 95...

    gfs-0-144.png

    CFSR_1_1995061518_1.png

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  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    Excellent post from Simon Lee talking about the potential pattern change next week.

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    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
    1 minute ago, mb018538 said:

    Excellent post from Simon Lee talking about the potential pattern change next week.

    From what I can understand, this seems like good news!

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  • Location: Chapmanslade, Wiltshire + Charente, France
  • Location: Chapmanslade, Wiltshire + Charente, France
    56 minutes ago, samadamsuk said:

    What if we are still 'locked in' for a dire month and it is just that the current runs don't show it unanimously? Surely then this comment is doing the same thing in reverse???  This isn't the long range positivity management forum it's the model output discussion - with a lot of discussion on each single modem run.

     

    Things on a knife edge with the big hitters diverging right now! More runs needed as ever

    Exactly my point. It is futile getting hung up on 10 day individual charts even if they all agree as more often than not they will change. By all means quote them but folks on here shouldn't use that information as a 'weather forecast' level of certainty at that range and then get mystified when they get ridiculed. 

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  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
    3 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

    From what I can understand, this seems like good news!

    Seema like brilliant news mate!!!gfs is never ending high pressure lol!

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  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    image.thumb.png.9ac9f5eca429270c41ca64ab32c527d7.png
     

    Make of that what you will!

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  • Location: Near Worcester
  • Location: Near Worcester

    Thanks MWB, a 10% chance of things going wrong for the UK usually materialises so 30% is near banker for belly up !

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  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers with thunderstorms, stormy or fog/frost autumns, cold winters
  • Location: Bedfordshire
    21 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

    This is getting slightly painful watching now. I can see the charts screaming with potential for a long warm, main settled spell with thundery interruptions, and the trend is definitely that way, but I can also see the trap door to getting stuck under a deluge of rain!!

    The latest clusters do not help to ease my tension. Taking the D6, D8 and D10 charts

    ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2020060500_144.  ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2020060500_192.  ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2020060500_240.

    you can see that at D6, a lot of runs take some sort of inclement weather through the UK, but generally as a transient event, as by D8 most charts have the trough clear of the UK, and the Scandi ridge is directing weather towards us from a warm source. All except pesky cluster 2! This one traps the trough far too close to the UK, and poses the risk of being stuck under cloud and rain, with less chance to inject warm air. At 30% of the solutions, it cannot be ignored. Cluster 1, however, gets a negative tilt to it, and allows warm continental air to get in. 

    So while signs for a mid-month warm-up (and I wouldn't rule out the word "heatwave") are increasing, we are definitely not there yet!!

    @Scorcher and @Tamara, in agreement with you, there's the opportunity for a really classic summer month once the next few days are out of the way, the dice seems loaded, can we avoid the booby traps? ?

    Are they anomaly (anomalous from the norm) charts? If so, with relatively high pressure normal for the UK at this time of year, even cluster 2 on Day 8 might not be a disaster as it could indicate a slack low with warm air still getting in the mix? Or am I reading that wrong?

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