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Model Output Discussion - Into Summer 2020.


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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

GEM the pick this afternoon, here

anim_orj2.gif

So long as these runs get shown by some of the models we are right in there with a shout.  A lot of uncertainty once past day 4 with the current setup, not sensible to overreact to one run of any model...

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Posted
  • Location: Birmingham, West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Severe cold, heavy snow, massive thunderstorms and bright sunshine.
  • Location: Birmingham, West Midlands

Sorry for the completely off topic post mods, but does anyone know if the supposedly upcoming easterly QBO is going to fail like it did in 2016? I couldn’t find the more relevant discussion thread for the QBO, so I decided to post this here so more people are likely to see it.

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Posted
  • Location: North East London (E4) 147ft
  • Location: North East London (E4) 147ft
9 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

To be fair, the GFS is a lot better than the ECM.

ECM gives a decent weekend down here then heads pear-shaped in FI. I’d take a warmish weekend to usher in the pubs opening. As you say earlier, my best guess is that the Azores High punches harder as we approach high summer.

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7 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

To be fair, the GFS is a lot better than the ECM.

That’s not really saying much, ECM is a stinker, temps never get to 20c here for the next 10days nor most of the country, bar the extreme south east on a couple of days...Anything like that comes off It’ll be a miserable spell of weather. 

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
18 minutes ago, 2010cold said:

Sorry for the completely off topic post mods, but does anyone know if the supposedly upcoming easterly QBO is going to fail like it did in 2016? I couldn’t find the more relevant discussion thread for the QBO, so I decided to post this here so more people are likely to see it.

It seems to be having a wobble at about 20-30 hPa.  

51B0BB3E-C766-4234-93FA-54F09B1649F6.thumb.jpeg.98d7212293dbd19cb96e3d6232c4f323.jpeg

You can just see this on the latest bit of the chart.  But there are easterly winds above and below, so it may sort itself out before winter, the next westerly phase is evident at the top, as would be expected.  Probably easier to see from the raw data, here:

https://www.geo.fu-berlin.de/met/ag/strat/produkte/qbo/singapore.dat

 

Edited by Mike Poole
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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

Given all the dross shown by various models today, the ECM mean is surprisingly good, T192 and T240:

69FE9AF4-4AF6-4B49-B58D-60A64719A177.thumb.gif.c130b169dfc7e265eff583948d96146b.gif2D6407E9-1A1C-4091-913E-A7237FE91877.thumb.gif.470d1be289fb57848420323af657cae7.gif

Parallel more bullish, with 1020 on a mean chart at T240 over the whole south and midlands:

8F5A2BB2-7D2B-461D-8F0B-0FCAAC178D77.thumb.gif.5b54fbbea5e6d2374b81a3b22db4e75a.gif

Edited by Mike Poole
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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

47D69DC9-DAF7-4B12-A7D5-A9D33B9727E0.thumb.png.f37cba65342619993b644d6462750f45.png

ECM 12z op. Let’s just wait til the morning eh?

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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire

So, could we see a trend to something much more warmer into July? The GEFS p12 thinks so, although it is very far away to tell at the moment...

12_366_2mtmpmax.thumb.png.ef9ebdcbe8e6fefb08e3fa91445a74f3.png   gens-12-1-336.thumb.png.3d464ef46a2213780fbbb3f910abbfb8.png   gens-12-0-336.thumb.png.5dbd1ef389a0a1b906aae32bcf97fe01.png

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

As I said the other day when the hot spell ended, we are going to have to roll with the punches for a while..this is the u k..not the med!..so we can all expect some rain at times and cooler temps, even some windy conditions from time to time but looking ahead towards mid July I’m sensing further opportunities for very warm and more generally settled conditions to come knocking..at least across southern u k along with further thundery interludes, again mainly further south so there’s still 2 months of summer left..the meteorological summer that is and that means oceans of time for the type of weather we have been blessed with at times..really since April!

1308791A-B655-4D36-8124-03A2E836087A.thumb.gif.d08637d5e235a28845a14e712b04a179.gif0C461F5B-C28E-42A6-BAC2-EBF62DBFD5A5.thumb.png.f71fcb41dd626e6fc8efa9b6ff009f65.pngF26EA895-8A21-4B2B-9423-3AF25E44A98A.thumb.png.710f1475b926f7374d0429ce604dd808.pngCC388391-6CBA-4242-B1C6-4DE26E64C506.thumb.png.4e23bce1c64f7c751fbf916be1274c5a.pngAD27C298-63A3-4CEE-B3FC-2FEA72841B4E.thumb.png.07dd2b98cf9bd3eb58459cffcdf5a8ff.png

 

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

Models have backed away from the azores ridge moving into southern parts, and instead we see more of a westerly flow.

La Nina imprinting itself on atmospheric dynamics. 

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
4 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Models have backed away from the azores ridge moving into southern parts, and instead we see more of a westerly flow.

La Nina imprinting itself on atmospheric dynamics. 

Normal July then, Atlantic dominates Jul and Aug

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Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
5 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Models have backed away from the azores ridge moving into southern parts, and instead we see more of a westerly flow.

La Nina imprinting itself on atmospheric dynamics. 

Is it a bit early to be sure it’s down to La Niña?

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
9 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Models have backed away from the azores ridge moving into southern parts, and instead we see more of a westerly flow.

La Nina imprinting itself on atmospheric dynamics. 

Have they? Really? There’s quite a mix of solutions in the model output given the uncertainty.  And re La Niña, the June issue of the MO contingency planners forecast suggests no significant influence during summer from La Niña, and 45% probability of the warmest quintile for the next 3 month period.

Edited by Mike Poole
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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
1 hour ago, mb018538 said:

Apparently the EC46 today is in sync with the CFS and shows strong scandi/UK heights setting up towards mid July....doesn’t look like it at the moment, but keep an eye out!

EC46 is only out to July 13th so far... Things look like improving towards backend of next week with a ridge pushing in from the SW at times. 

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
19 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Normal July then, Atlantic dominates Jul and Aug

Your just picking on the climatic norm though! Things don't quite work out like that especially in these AGW days. And there are quite a few who are predicting August to be the better of the 3 Summer months, We may as well say forget Winter this year, because the default pattern is Zonal.

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
2 hours ago, Mike Poole said:

GEM the pick this afternoon, here

anim_orj2.gif

So long as these runs get shown by some of the models we are right in there with a shout.  A lot of uncertainty once past day 4 with the current setup, not sensible to overreact to one run of any model...

Would tie in fairly well with a lot of the ensemble output recently. 

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

ICON 18z T120 v 12z T126:

8DF0BC77-8F0E-4D66-801F-09187BAF1F68.thumb.png.bef5e9adfc1acff563247837d3c2f567.pngD8730D8D-D2DD-4094-A31F-00089F001891.thumb.png.9361b2e5d1893900b151840559b9e983.png

The point of interest here isn’t the heights, but how the low SE of Iceland has diminished, I think if this run went further it would build a ridge, but it doesn’t it stops at T120 on the 18z.

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Posted
  • Location: Chapmanslade, Wiltshire + Charente, France
  • Location: Chapmanslade, Wiltshire + Charente, France
2 hours ago, Alderc said:

That’s not really saying much, ECM is a stinker, temps never get to 20c here for the next 10days nor most of the country, bar the extreme south east on a couple of days...Anything like that comes off It’ll be a miserable spell of weather. 

The good news is you said that a couple of weeks ago and look where we ended up.

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
2 hours ago, Alderc said:

That’s not really saying much, ECM is a stinker, temps never get to 20c here for the next 10days nor most of the country, bar the extreme south east on a couple of days...Anything like that comes off It’ll be a miserable spell of weather. 

This is slightly misleading Alderc - for a start, here on the south coast we can often hover around 20C when on a SWly while inland is several degrees higher, it doesn't mean it is not summery - secondly, you can usually add 2 to 3C to ECM published maximums - and if I apply that to the ECM charts for this weekend, most parts of England would exceed 23C on Saturday + Sunday, and parts of E Anglia could get to 28C or 29C (bit optimistic but that's how tonight's ECM should be best interpreted!). 

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

The EC46 Seems keen to build  a ridge in by next Tuesday/Wednesday.. This continues throughout the week.. We keep this ebbing and flowing of ridges out to pretty much the end of July.. SW/S/SE areas look more favourable... The general air pressure is basically around 1017 mb to 1020mb at times. Temps remain on the warm side and I'm not seeing any dominant Low Pressure systems at this point.. It seems keen to keep the major Heat to the South, and even Central Europe never looks hot, just relatively warm. Its gr8 to see though that temps over parts of the Antarctica are ranging from - 30 to - 50c.. But that's just me babbling on now.. 

To sum up, plenty of usable conditions look a good call at times through July, I'm not sure what some are seeing to get so agitated about regarding the Conditions or that perhaps they set the bar to high... But all in all its not that bad after this week. ☀️

Edited by MATT☀️
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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

GFS 18z T126:

26D8F4FE-ACA1-4AEC-A33D-567187470501.thumb.png.ee78b366d42cb5a3d059b5ce919a3b5f.png

I’m interested not so much in the slow to clear low, but the upstream kink in the 1025 isobar, will this kick on and deliver a good run with an Azores ridge?

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