Model Output Discussion - Into Summer 2020.

[NApplewhite]

5 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Yes, it is a horror show, it’s also wrong.  It is better to try and take a cross model view, so you can see the outliers, like this one!

This is not an outlier its fact! 

[Djdazzle]

8 minutes ago, NApplewhite said:

This is not an outlier its fact! 

Doesn’t need to be an outlier to be wrong. Remember when the GFS op run and the entire ensemble suite were wrong a couple of weeks ago - at T96.

[mb018538]

Lots of scatter in the ensembles through next weekend, and although the op run is below the mean, there are plenty of other not so good runs to go with it. Could be a real crunch point.

[Allseasons-Si]

JFF...

i want the control to be in control

 

[Guest]

23 minutes ago, NApplewhite said:

This is not an outlier its fact! 

It's not a major outlier but it doesn't have loads of support either. There's lots of scatter from next weekend - GFS doesn't have a clue at the moment.

[tight isobar]

35 minutes ago, carinthian said:

Think the UKMO is showing some uncertainty in the intensity of the low formation to the NW of Britain. This model and others have the low filling rather than deepening at 144t . Lets see how ECM handles this low development. So think based on this run ,  very uncertain forecast for next weekend. Could end up better than the chart would envisage below .

 

C

Couldn't have put it any better...

the lump low...is being pumped and jumped like a ball atm...and nxt weekend could be hit...or-heat!!!!

A good scan through after all 12z and supporting have done and relaxed!!!

Edited June 28, 2020 by tight isobar

[Mike Poole]

As the ECM comes out just to recap the other models at T96 in NH view:

UKMO making least of the downstream low, what does ECM think?

Edit T120:

Need to see this one off before it will all settle for a while...

Goes against UKMO as far as i can see, lets watch what develops from here...remember all roads lead to settled eventually, is my take anyway...

Edited June 28, 2020 by Mike Poole

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

Awful gfs 12z output and it is a horror show and most certainly could be a hint of a curtain closer on summer 2020.  It'll be an outlier and be gone on the 18z but i hope all those that seem sure of a return to a settled spell of weather in 10 days are prepared to see anything warm pushed back or watered away. 

[mb018538]

3 minutes ago, 38.7°C said:

Awful gfs 12z output and it is a horror show and most certainly could be a hint of a curtain closer on summer 2020.  It'll be an outlier and be gone on the 18z but i hope all those that seem sure of a return to a settled spell of weather in 10 days are prepared to see anything warm pushed back or watered away. 

Sorry, but that’s ridiculous. A curtain closer? We’ve just had a heatwave for a start, and it’s still June.

The 12z was a big outlier. Ensemble mean is decent enough. No one is expecting a 3 week heatwave into the first week of July, perhaps an improvement to some more widely settled weather for a time. Nothing more than that.

[Djdazzle]

6 minutes ago, 38.7°C said:

Awful gfs 12z output and it is a horror show and most certainly could be a hint of a curtain closer on summer 2020.  It'll be an outlier and be gone on the 18z but i hope all those that seem sure of a return to a settled spell of weather in 10 days are prepared to see anything warm pushed back or watered away. 

Curtain closer on Summer 2020 .  . Oh hang on, it’s June 28th.

Genuine question: why do you post stuff like this?

I get it’s not a great run, but please can we cut out the hyperbole.

Edited June 28, 2020 by Djdazzle

[Mike Poole]

7 minutes ago, 38.7°C said:

Awful gfs 12z output and it is a horror show and most certainly could be a hint of a curtain closer on summer 2020.  It'll be an outlier and be gone on the 18z but i hope all those that seem sure of a return to a settled spell of weather in 10 days are prepared to see anything warm pushed back or watered away. 

Yes we are, we are prepared for winter, and we expect it to happen from late November onwards, thanks for asking.

Edited June 28, 2020 by Mike Poole

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Thankfully the mods removed one bizzare comment on summer could be over post... One bad run doesn't spell the end.. The GEM looks fab but doesn't seem to have been mentioned much, yet the much irregular GFS seems to hog the spotlight... It bemuses me. The general trend i am seeing is for improvement within than 7 or 8 day range, pretty much backed up by Exter and the Beeb.. Hopefully ECM will highlight this in the last few frames. 

Edit.. My bad the post still remains.

Edited June 28, 2020 by MATT☀️

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

4 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

Curtain closer on Summer 2020 .  . Oh hang, it’s June 28th.

Genuine question: why do you post stuff like this?

I get it’s not a great run, but please can we cut out the hyperbole.

Its only one model run im commenting on and if you dont agree that it looks awful i dont know what to say.  As ive already mentioned its likely to be an outlier and it will be gone on the 18z !!! 

[Djdazzle]

2 minutes ago, 38.7°C said:

Its only one model run im commenting on and if you dont agree that it looks awful i dont know what to say.  As ive already mentioned its likely to be an outlier and it will be gone on the 18z !!! 

I didn’t say I disagreed. It was the “curtain closer on summer” comment that I questioned. As have quite a few others.

Edited June 28, 2020 by Djdazzle

[Mike Poole]

ECM T192:

Summer incoming again

[matt111]

So we've gone from Summers over to summer returning in the space of a few minutes? It's ridiculous as it is to write off the rest of summer at this stage anyway but it seems there's plenty to be positive about moving forwards. 

[Zak M]

12z ECM @216, looks warm but that low near Iceland could be a threat...

Edited June 28, 2020 by Zak M

[mb018538]

ECM is a bit ‘meh’ this evening when compared to other efforts and the GEM for example. A couple of fine days, but no real build of pressure.

[Mike Poole]

9 minutes ago, Zak M said:

12z ECM @216, looks warm and thundery to me...

Hot but not thundery for me, pressure not low enough.

And T240, we need that low to clear, but nice for the south..

Edited June 28, 2020 by Mike Poole

[carinthian]

1 hour ago, carinthian said:

Think the UKMO is showing some uncertainty in the intensity of the low formation to the NW of Britain. This model and others have the low filling rather than deepening at 144t . Lets see how ECM handles this low development. So think based on this run ,  very uncertain forecast for next weekend. Could end up better than the chart would envisage below .

 

C

Well in comparison , ECM has a more aggressive low feature , similar to GEM, whilst UKMO and GFS show a more benign one.  Maybe there will be some consensus by tomorrow morning. Still think there is a big doubt about next weekends forecast in your part of the world. Meanwhile not looking to bad in these parts ( Eastern Alps ).

C

Edited June 28, 2020 by carinthian

[Mike Poole]

ECM parallel gets it right, folks, here T192, T240:

Looking at the model output in the round this evening, however this next week pans out, summer proper begins from next weekend or just after.  Yes, spring was very nice, and June has been mixed, but prepare for a hot July, SSTs now:

This should give the UK a comfort zone, if things in the rest of the world go against us, but they probably aren’t going to go against us, AAM from CFS today:

After a shaky early June, so starts a hot summer, interspersed with short term breakdown events, like this week, in my opinion.  Bring it on....

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Here is the GEM runs in its entirety.. I'll have some of that please. 

[Methuselah]

57 minutes ago, 38.7°C said:

Awful gfs 12z output and it is a horror show and most certainly could be a hint of a curtain closer on summer 2020.  It'll be an outlier and be gone on the 18z but i hope all those that seem sure of a return to a settled spell of weather in 10 days are prepared to see anything warm pushed back or watered away. 

I'm almost lost for words at this post... but one does spring to mind: nonsense!

[mountain shadow]

39 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM T192:

Summer incoming again

Aye, for a day. 

[Allseasons-Si]

3 minutes ago, MATT said:

Here is the GEM runs in its entirety.. I'll have some of that please. 

I will have some of this too...from the JMA

although not overly warm but from there you would favor that hp cell to drift further E/NE

it would be sods law that it would turn out hot second week of July just as i would start my first afters shift since March

still not complaining though as last week was superb whilst i was off with all the heat and storms.