Model Output Discussion - Into Summer 2020.

[wellington boot]

5 hours ago, LRD said:

Funny how different people can perceive things differently. I wouldn't classify this June as poor when I remember back to some Junes we've experienced. When I was growing up in the 80s we had some horrific Junes

Granted it's not been a classic. Just a pretty average month really. Not sure what the CET or precipitation figures are showing but I'd be amazed if they're not within the 'average' envelope

On to July and projections are for a poor start to that month. But, again, signals that week 2 will see us move back into summer

Over-reaction to a signal? Maybe but let's hope it's on the nose and that the above chart typifies what we will end up seeing throughout July and August.

 

5 hours ago, LRD said:

Funny how different people can perceive things differently. I wouldn't classify this June as poor when I remember back to some Junes we've experienced. When I was growing up in the 80s we had some horrific Junes

Granted it's not been a classic. Just a pretty average month really. Not sure what the CET or precipitation figures are showing but I'd be amazed if they're not within the 'average' envelope

On to July and projections are for a poor start to that month. But, again, signals that week 2 will see us move back into summer.

Indeed. Think it depends again on where you are. June has been more than decent here. Some tropical weather the previous couple of weeks - any day there was rain it was generally dramatic and the other half of the day was sunny. Then the last six days were glorious here, Sunday to Friday.

Interesting that UKMO and GFS are very close together at t144 and both quite promising...

[Mike Poole]

GEM takes a much more tortuous route to settled weather with combining a big low for a while, but eventually it moves away to leave a settled and warm scenario:

This run is on the pessimistic side of what we might expect....after all it would be very unlucky for those two lows to meet and mate over the UK, wouldn’t it?

Edited June 27, 2020 by Mike Poole

[Methuselah]

Wouldn't it be nice...? Lazy Sunday afternoon-a...:

     

[BlueHedgehog074]

2 hours ago, JON SNOW said:

Oh jeez wow, can I still post ?..wow, anyway..could summer be coming back...?..discuss!

Nope, you’re not allowed to post. Who said you could post in here? Get off the thread, man...

(Nah, we wouldn’t be that mean )

Was going to post that the 12Z GEM tries to also bring Summer back with the Azores High ridging towards the UK from the South-West, but been beaten to it by Mike Poole he hee

While it’s nothing particularly impressive, the 12Z GEFS ensemble mean, still coming out, keeps Low Pressure to the North of the UK and High Pressure close by to the South and South-West late next week:

 

Southern UK would see the best of brighter, drier conditions, but no full-on UK trough on those mean charts, so changeable probably being the best description for now. Particularly over Northern UK. Further on, and it then shows signs of the Azores High gaining a bit more influence and the unsettled or changeable conditions being pushed away a little more further and further North.

 

9 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

Wouldn't it be nice...? Lazy Sunday afternoon-a...:

     

Would definitely take that. Let’s hope the GFS answers your prayers

Edited June 27, 2020 by DiagonalRedLine
Removing extra attachment at bottom

[Alexis]

2 hours ago, 38.7°C said:

Looks like a pretty dire Autumn like period coming up to start off the highest and what is supposed to be the warmest summer month.. Not seen unsettled weather like this in July since 2012.... Signs of improvement around mid month but that's all tucked away in the golden reaches of cuckoo kingdom. Its not normally until the after the Solstice that the basic summer pattern begins to set in so this coming week should be a concern if your wishing for anything settled. 

 

Not seen unsettled weather like this since 2012? 2015, 2016 and 2017 saw cyclonic Julys. Not sure how a 'basic summer pattern' can set in now considering the number of years where July, August and September for that matter are often vastly different in this country. We've also had a fantastic spring and a fairly decent June, punctuated throughout with 7 day periods of wet weather. 
I'm all for chart analysis, but not for doom and gloom "winter is over" charts.

[East Lancs Rain]

58 minutes ago, wellington boot said:

 

Indeed. Think it depends again on where you are. June has been more than decent here. Some tropical weather the previous couple of weeks - any day there was rain it was generally dramatic and the other half of the day was sunny. Then the last six days were glorious here, Sunday to Friday.

Interesting that UKMO and GFS are very close together at t144 and both quite promising...

I don't think June has been good here. The first two weeks or so were unseasonably cool. The last three days have been overbearingly hot. It's also been disappointing in terms of sunshine amounts. And there's been quite a few miserable cold gloomy rainy days. Very little usable weather on offer for me.

Edited June 27, 2020 by East Lancs Rain

[Uncle_Barty]

2 hours ago, 38.7°C said:

Looks like a pretty dire Autumn like period coming up to start off the highest and what is supposed to be the warmest summer month.. Not seen unsettled weather like this in July since 2012.... Signs of improvement around mid month but that's all tucked away in the golden reaches of cuckoo kingdom. Its not normally until the after the Solstice that the basic summer pattern begins to set in so this coming week should be a concern if your wishing for anything settled.

The first half of July 2012 was an utter car crash with more rain here than the average for June and July combined during those two weeks, a 90% sunshine deficit and very suppressed temperatures. The whole of July 1988 was a disaster too.

The 2nd half of July 2017 was pretty unsettled as well.

The start of this July is certainly going to be changeable, but almost certainly not on a par with 2012 or 1988, and better the further south you are. And the signs from the models are that it is too early to write off the summer beyond this time next week. I refer to the ECM clusters posted earlier on.

I remember 1997 which had a very unsettled spell end of June (Glastonbury was particularly wet that year) but things did start to settle down at the first week of July progressed.

[East Lancs Rain]

33 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

Wouldn't it be nice...? Lazy Sunday afternoon-a...:

     

Looks like very pleasant conditions without being too hot. The heat restricted to Southern Europe where it belongs.

[wellington boot]

12 minutes ago, East Lancs Rain said:

I don't think June has been good here. The first two weeks or so were unseasonably cool. The last three days have been overbearingly hot. It's also been disappointing in terms of sunshine amounts. And there's been quite a few miserable cold gloomy rainy days. Very little usable weather on offer for me.

Precisely my point. It very much depends where you are. That sounds very different to my experience in the far South East.

[Met.]

June was mixed. Not a really good summer month thanks to being both wetter and cloudier than average yet again. It had its moments of interest like the convective period mid-month and the late warm spell. Anyway 3rd-12th was just too long of a depressing and garbage period IMO.

[Mike Poole]

Important ECM tonight I think, after the last few days unrealistic model output throwing summergeddon at us, we need to see if the worlds best model backs the UKMO and GFS as a quick route back to settled, let’s see.....

[Methuselah]

Well, golly-gee, Miss Mary Lou, don't them thar GEFS 12Z ensembles paint a reeeeeal pretty picture!

    

   

As clear as Mississippi mud? Yee Haw!

[Mike Poole]

ECM T120:

The others:

At this stage ECM most positive for a ridge from the Azores, I think, let’s see how it goes...

[Mike Poole]

ECM T144:

it would be kind of nice if it didn’t phase the low WNW of the UK  and the one NE , like the GEM did?

[Zak M]

168 has the AH ridging into the Atlantic

[Zak M]

192 looks very good for western parts, meanwhile in the east a northerly introduces itself but the ridging from the Azores high should not make the northerly last for too long

Edited June 27, 2020 by Zak M

[Mike Poole]

ECM T192:

looks good for the next two frames, summer back as if it hasn’t been away!

[Zak M]

We've hit the jackpot as far as the 12z ECM is concerned!

[Mike Poole]

T216:

 

it is all heading in this direction, isn’t it?  Azores ridge, but not far enough north for some, but summer is definitely here for the south!

Edited June 27, 2020 by Mike Poole

[mb018538]

Well hello there Mr High, nice to see you again  

[Mike Poole]

Wow!

[BlueHedgehog074]

Low Pressure definitely looses the battle for sure on the 12Z ECMWF at 240 hours. High Pressure the winner over the UK

[damianslaw]

18 minutes ago, Zak M said:

168 has the AH ridging into the Atlantic

Up until 168 hrs, the outlook remains very unsettled and cool, notably so in the north, poor charts for very end of June, start of July.

After 168hrs the models are showing the azores high gaining the upper hand again, which will enable a return to summery conditions away from the far NW.

Much will depend on how cleanly the trough migrates to the east, the chart above shows potential shortwave activity to our NW preventing a clean retreat, and this would allow the low off the eastern USA seaboard to merge with the trough with the azores high scurrying away to the west. Alas, ECM doesn't develop any shortwave and the azores high is allowed to build and move in, with the jet aligned on a SW-NE trajectory.

 

[Methuselah]

2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Wow!

Now THAT, Mike, is a stonker!!!!!

[damianslaw]

18 minutes ago, Zak M said:

168 has the AH ridging into the Atlantic

Up until 168 hrs, the outlook remains very unsettled and cool, notably so in the north, poor charts for very end of June, start of July.

After 168hrs the models are showing the azores high gaining the upper hand again, which will enable a return to summery conditions away from the far NW.

Much will depend on how cleanly the trough migrates to the east, the chart above shows potential shortwave activity to our NW preventing a clean retreat, and this would allow the low off the eastern USA seaboard to merge with the trough with the azores high scurrying away to the west. Alas, ECM doesn't develop any shortwave and the azores high is allowed to build and move in, with the jet aligned on a SW-NE trajectory.