Model Output Discussion - Into Summer 2020.

[Methuselah]

Well, whatever misery the next few days' weather holds, by T+222 things should be getting a little better? GFS 06Z:

    

Edited June 27, 2020 by General Cluster

[LRD]

23 minutes ago, MP-R said:

I don’t think it’s hardly surprising there are complaints about next week. There’s no dressing up that it’s going to be poor, perhaps forgivable if not for the fact that a large swathe of June has also been poor (not distracted by the last four days).

My hope is this will be a bit like that final week of July 2005 and that high pressure swiftly moves in to bring something more typical for the time of year. Tentative signs of that happening but more runs needed methinks. To state that what is shown is normal for high summer is frankly absurd, but then neither is what we’ve had this week.

 

On a side note, which models are taken into account in Netweather’s 10 day at a glance forecasts?

Funny how different people can perceive things differently. I wouldn't classify this June as poor when I remember back to some Junes we've experienced. When I was growing up in the 80s we had some horrific Junes

Granted it's not been a classic. Just a pretty average month really. Not sure what the CET or precipitation figures are showing but I'd be amazed if they're not within the 'average' envelope

On to July and projections are for a poor start to that month. But, again, signals that week 2 will see us move back into summer

Over-reaction to a signal? Maybe but let's hope it's on the nose and that the above chart typifies what we will end up seeing throughout July and August.

Edited June 27, 2020 by LRD

[carinthian]

On 26/06/2020 at 08:46, carinthian said:

Morning all, ECM springs a nice surprise at 240h. Not really to be unexpected as the pattern so far this summer keeps returning to a default position. (ie) High pressure building over the British Isles, Central European and Atlantic trough dominating. Cooler and windier intrudes fairly short lived . Reasons to be joyful for you lot going by this chart.

 C

Greeting from a warm and sunny Eastern Alps ( makes a change ) Lets brighten up proceedings a bit. Latest GFS showing a similar picture to what ECM was showing this time yesterday at day 10.  Warmth and pressure rises return the Western Europe/British with trough domination back on the cards for Central and Eastern Europe. Think you lot will gleefully hold out for this result but not sure about me . Enjoy the cool fresh breeze for a few days !

Aye, C

[mb018538]

Bit lively in here for a Saturday morning! Shall we get back to the weather?

The day 10 ECM ensembles all show the Azores high building in/trying to build in some form. Weak positive anomalies after this, but I think the ‘door needs to be opened’ before we see what’s on the other side.
Patience folks. This week looks a bit duff for summer - most if not all summers have weather of this type, so we just have to ride it out and wait for the potential change through next weekend.

[offerman]

Hello ,

Quite often I hear reference to the Pacific controlling things . What the Pacific does affects our patterns , us etc.. 

If this is the case, what controls the Pacific patterns ? Or is the Pacific the first point of controlling weather types globally because of its sheer size and also El and La events too? 

 

Many Thanks . 

Edited June 27, 2020 by offerman
Spelling mistake

[johnholmes]

Oh if only IF, we could all just post our point of view on whichever model we have used and ignore any niggles/digs from someone else. There is a report button that will ensure the team check the report out and take whatever action they feel is necessary.

I suppose I am spitting in the wind!

 

No input re the anomaly charts but thye do show 6-10 days of changeable weather with somewhat below average late June temperatures. There is then a glimmer of hope on the EC-GFS with the slightest signal this morning for height rise south of the UK. Not on the 6-10 NOAA but there is on the 8-14. If each of them continue with this, say for 3 days, then we may be seeing light at the end of this fairly short tunnel?

 

[Frosty.]

9 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

Oh if only IF, we could all just post our point of view on whichever model we have used and ignore any niggles/digs from someone else. There is a report button that will ensure the team check the report out and take whatever action they feel is necessary.

I suppose I am spitting in the wind!

 

No input re the anomaly charts but thye do show 6-10 days of changeable weather with somewhat below average late June temperatures. There is then a glimmer of hope on the EC-GFS with the slightest signal this morning for height rise south of the UK. Not on the 6-10 NOAA but there is on the 8-14. If each of them continue with this, say for 3 days, then we may be seeing light at the end of this fairly short tunnel?

 

• Indeed, I don’t think the cooler unsettled spell will last long, I firmly believe we will see a return of summery conditions between early - mid July as the GEFS / ECM Mean shows!!!!..and as I mentioned yesterday!!!!!!!!..I’m out of reactions..surprise surprise!..great post as usual Tamara..

Edited June 27, 2020 by JON SNOW

[mb018538]

17 minutes ago, offerman said:

Hello ,

Quite often I hear reference to the Pacific controlling things . What the Pacific does affects our patterns , us etc.. 

If this is the case, what controls the Pacific patterns ? Or is the Pacific the first point of controlling weather types globally because of its sheer size and also El and La events too? 

 

Many Thanks . 

There are a whole host of reasons, and everything in the global circulation is connected!

One reason though is that the Pacific is much bigger (almost 2x the Atlantic size) and more convectively active than the Atlantic Ocean, and this convection can alter the Pacific jet....the ripple downstream can then effect the Atlantic too. So often meteorologists will look in the Pacific basin for changes to change the downstream pattern here.

Edited June 27, 2020 by mb018538

[Methuselah]

Well than, and putting all current disagreements aside, does anyone think the GFS 06Z chart, at T+384, looks a tad familiar? Sweaty socks are stealing all my storms. It's nae fair, I tell ye! Give them back, at once!

    

 

Edited June 27, 2020 by Blessed Weather

[MP-R]

57 minutes ago, LRD said:

Funny how different people can perceive things differently. I wouldn't classify this June as poor when I remember back to some Junes we've experienced. When I was growing up in the 80s we had some horrific Junes

Granted it's not been a classic. Just a pretty average month really. Not sure what the CET or precipitation figures are showing but I'd be amazed if they're not within the 'average' envelope

Yes indeed, and therein lies the issue with considering the CET. For me, sunshine, rainfall and cloudcover are far more important. Temperature-wise it's been pretty close to average, helped back up by the last week. Sunshine has been disappointing overall though, and rainfall has been WELL above what it should be at the time of year. The month has had a very late summer feel about it. As you say though, not a stinker by any means, just not ticking enough of the June boxes for me personally.

To the here and now, I'm liking the signals of the GFS and ECM into week 2, with a resumption of high pressure from around the 6th/7th. Hopefully it won't be flattened too much. What we certainly don't need right now is any short term enhancements to rainfall!

[Frosty.]

Ok..there are some good signs from the GEFS 6z..or am I a liar?..discuss

 

[Methuselah]

An interesting GEFS 06Z ensemble set. There's even an @JON SNOW special in there!

    

    

NH profiles:

    

    

Hello! I'm Johnny Cash:  
 

 

[BlueHedgehog074]

Does seem to be a fair amount of bickering in here today. Let’s keep it cool please!

Everyone does have their own opinion and we all interpret the charts differently. I’ve also got no problem with people challenging others’ posts, (as longs it’s done respectfully and without insulting language). However, apart from the last few posts, anymore bickering and we’ll pour some Vanish solution on the offending posts! 

Edited June 27, 2020 by DiagonalRedLine

[northwestsnow]

Hopefully an improving picture as we head towards the 2nd week of July.

Has anyone posted the clusters yet?

 

Edited June 27, 2020 by Blessed Weather

[Zak M]

00z ECM clusters for day 10:

A bit of a mess by the looks of it but could we see HP start to ridge back in again?

[Methuselah]

7 minutes ago, Zak M said:

00z ECM clusters for day 10:

A bit of a mess by the looks of it but could we see HP start to ridge back in again?

Thaaaaaaat's Britain!! Sure beats Anarchy in The UK!

[Frosty.]

Oh jeez wow, can I still post ?..wow, anyway..could summer be coming back...?..discuss!

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

Looks like a pretty dire Autumn like period coming up to start off the highest and what is supposed to be the warmest summer month.. Not seen unsettled weather like this in July since 2012.... Signs of improvement around mid month but that's all tucked away in the golden reaches of cuckoo kingdom. Its not normally until the after the Solstice that the basic summer pattern begins to set in so this coming week should be a concern if your wishing for anything settled. 

 

[Mike Poole]

Afternoon all!

ICON 12z showing the Azores ridge on its way at the end of the run, T168, T180:

Before the rest of the 12z, a look at the SSTs, current picture, compared with a week ago:

You can see how the hot spell has sharpened this up considerably, not just the hot anomaly near the UK, but also the cold anomaly out west (trough magnet, other signals being conducive).  So how does it compare with the end of the previous hot spell , here 1 June:

E of the UK it is warmer now, but colder waters are closer to the SW.  I wonder if this is suggesting that any Azores ridge in the week after next may benefit mainly the midlands south, with the jet stream still bringing low pressures to the northwest.  

[East Lancs Rain]

GFS 06z run is forecasting unsettled weather for at least the next week before high pressure ridges in on the 6th.  Hopefully it won’t be as hot as what we had over the past three days.

 

Edited June 27, 2020 by East Lancs Rain

[Methuselah]

But it's nae exactly The Day After Tomorrow, is it?

    

[Mike Poole]

UKMO at T144:

I thought some were calling a two week nightmare, with persistent lows over the country?  Not according to UKMO at day 6!

[Mike Poole]

GFS does rather blow up the low to the NW at T144:

But the run is interesting if you look NH:

 

The shift to Atlantic trough is evident, and therefore relevant now is what I was saying earlier about the SSTs...

 

Edited June 27, 2020 by Mike Poole

[Methuselah]

And at T+165 (and well within the scope of the 500mb anomalies, I think) we have fresh to strong, warm and humid WSW'erly winds, and temps anywhere between, say, 17 and 24C, north to south...? But, as always in these situations day-to-day details will change:

    

Who knows?

 

[Methuselah]

Well, ah say (thank you, Dan Maskell) the GFS at T+255 is nae too bad, is it?