Model Output Discussion - Into Summer 2020.

[Methuselah]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

 

GFS is really warm mid term with mid 20s quite widely...

Plenty of rain for parts of the SW especially as the trough spins away in the bay of Biscay.

Hopefully some big storms on the way too.

 

And nights would be warm too. So, expect the June CET to rise quite quickly?

[Guest]

Unsurprisingly and from a NIMBY perspective the GFS 12Z is awful - feels like the south through to the M4 is favourite bet at the moment to pick up the big totals of rain, how much who knows but anything from 25-75mm+ could be on the cards. Need that low another 150miles south west. 

[Zak M]

12z GFS showing widespread thunderstorms on day 8

   

I think if the low that is forecast to be to the SW of us is in the right position, then we could waft up some of the very warm air from W Europe.

Temps in W Europe are expected to exceed 33c in the coming week

Also, severe thunderstorms are currently ongoing there, meaning that we could waft up some of those too

Obviously could change, but for now, I'm crossing my fingers

Edited June 7, 2020 by Zak M

[Mike Poole]

Just now, Singularity said:

The dive of the jet needs sharpening up here - with any luck this is just a typical NWP model shortcoming in evidence.

With the jet diving more gently like this, I'm not sure this run is going to manage the next step of trough retrogression... but we'll see.

Busy Sunday... I guess I'm doing all the posts I didn't do this past winter (there was hardly anything worth posting on!).

Yes, interesting times, and we on here need that right now, with all the things that are going on in the world, my 12z model watch is the new mindfulness, in a world gone wrong.

[sheikhy]

From a  more selfish perspective much better for midlands on both the gfs 12z and ukmo 12z!!no real constant torrential rainfall for the midlands!!that low has defo shifted further west in the bay of biscay as well!!warmer and humid!!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

26 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

UKMO looks very warm as we draw up SE winds at 144?

I can see the trough causing a few headaches for the models over the next few days though..

hopefully looks warm, hopefully sun and showers style days, thurs onwards, feeling hot in the sun, storms too, temps maybe upto 25 degrees in lucky areas

[Allseasons-Si]

7 minutes ago, MikeC53 said:

Really dreadful output tonight especially for my area and further South/SW. 

 

6 minutes ago, MikeC53 said:

Day 9 on the GFS and heavy rain almost everywhere.

Do not take the gfs ppn charts as gospel mate,you will do yourself an hernia,trust me,no model can predict ppn charts that far out and even the day before can sometimes be misleading 

the trough looks to set up shop to the SW of the UK(as it stands)so it will be warm rain or perhaps thunderstorms but it will not be a complete washout.

[MikeC53]

1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:

 

Do not take the gfs ppn charts as gospel mate,you will do yourself an hernia,trust me,no model can predict ppn charts that far out and even the day before can sometimes be misleading 

the trough looks to set up shop to the SW of the UK(as it stands)so it will be warm rain or perhaps thunderstorms but it will not be a complete washout.

It will if the GFS has the position correct - it will just be constant rain being fed from the trough.

[Guest]

One thing for sure it is an unusual setup, I don't ever remember potential decent TS activity tracking east to west, however given this is the UK whatever direction it comes from it can still go horribly wrong. 

[northwestsnow]

The warmth goes on and on GFS 12Z...

[Methuselah]

Day 10, and tentative signs of a Scandi-Azores link-up? Or wishful thinking!

    

[Allseasons-Si]

1 minute ago, MikeC53 said:

It will if the GFS has the position correct - it will just be constant rain being fed from the trough.

And since when has the gfs been correct at that range,just sit back and relax mate

[Mike Poole]

Comparison at T144:

GEM closest in terms of a merger of the two lows, UK and Greenland, interested in this one...not from the point of the period from now to mid month, but for establishing a.pattern thereafter.

Edited June 7, 2020 by Mike Poole

[MATTWOLVES 3]

It's shaping up OK on the GFS mean..

The nice theme Continues beyond day 10. @General Cluster 

Edited June 7, 2020 by MATT☀️

[Djdazzle]

It seems a very good bet that the low will be further west come the time. So all this worrying about massive rainfall totals in pointless.

Even low pressure anchored close as modelled on the 12z doesn't necessarily mean continuous rain.

[Methuselah]

4 minutes ago, MATT said:

It's shaping up OK on the GFS mean..

Yes Matt...And the op is so good I'm starting to fear it's close to being a warm outlier!

    

But, be that as it may, I'm all up for a ten-day-long spell under 8-12C T850s!

[Mike Poole]

GEM did merge the lows, but ended here:

I don't think this is retrogressing the low enough, I think it has got into a mess in the later stages but got the earlier ones right.  

Prediction, the ECM follows GEM at a week, but goes on to track the low further west and less deep.

[johnholmes]

33 minutes ago, MikeC53 said:

It will if the GFS has the position correct - it will just be constant rain being fed from the trough.

As has been suggested to you, pp chart from any model is rarely correct in amount and place at times even less than 48 hours out.

Indeed at day 9 even the basic isobar pattern can be not really near what happens.

Edited June 7, 2020 by johnholmes

[Guest]

1 minute ago, Djdazzle said:

It seems a very good bet that the low will be further west come the time. So all this worrying about massive rainfall totals in pointless.

Even low pressure anchored close as modelled on the 12z doesn't necessarily mean continuous rain.

You can't possibly know that it will be further south west, so while some parts of the country are under 'modelled' heavy precip totals I think its natural to be concerned until we got closer to the time.Given the very unusual synoptics I can only really look at the models as I personally don't really remember anything like this in the past few years so any assumptions outside what the models are showing is pretty close to guesswork. 

[mushymanrob]

7 hours ago, mushymanrob said:

Those charts have been consistent now for several runs in anchoring the troughing there... to my eyes the ops dont agree and have the trough further East across france. Id back the consistent NOAA charts any day over the ops at that range. imho these charts would be better then most of the current and recent op runs. Personally id expect the ops to change, it would be unusual if these consistent charts were far out.

The 12z is far more in line with what id expect the NOAA 500mb charts are suggesting. 

[Guest]

GFS ensembles are very, very interesting. east to west they show the Ops run is something of cool outlier from the weekend onwards. But look at the difference between London (well above average), Bournemouth (above average), Penzance (average) showing the proximity of the trough to the south west. 

 

[Djdazzle]

23 minutes ago, Alderc said:

You can't possibly know that it will be further south west, so while some parts of the country are under 'modelled' heavy precip totals I think its natural to be concerned until we got closer to the time.Given the very unusual synoptics I can only really look at the models as I personally don't really remember anything like this in the past few years so any assumptions outside what the models are showing is pretty close to guesswork. 

I don’t know for sure, correct. And nor do you. But the NOAA modelling suggests it will be further SW. There are probably people reading this who think it will pan out as per GFS, and I’m trying to give some perspective. After the GFS’s recent performances, I think that’s fair.

Edited June 7, 2020 by Djdazzle

[mb018538]

8 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

I don’t know for sure, correct. And nor do you. But the NOAA modelling suggests it will be further SW. There are probably people reading this who think it will pan out as per GFS, and I’m trying to give some perspective. After the GFS’s recent performances, I think that’s fair.

Quite - it was only 2 days ago it continued to show high pressure over the UK instead of what’s about to happen. The Global Fail System in full force.

[weathermadbarnsleylad]

Let's see what the ECM says tonight. 

[Guest]

We really need this to change, little chance of prolonged warmth and true plume activity while eastern Europe looks like this.