Model Output Discussion - Into Summer 2020.

[Daniel*]

50 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Can’t we tell the weather is heading downhill - no comments on the ecm at all! Hardly surprising - it’s dreadful. Especially for the folks in the NW, Wales and W Scotland. Another 100-150mm of rain shown in places.

Poor @Mr Frost! It’s a disaster for W Scotland exceptionally cool too.

Seems like there is no real room for manoeuvre out of this mess for NW parts ECM 12z was an OK run for us in the southeast. Less warm than 00z to be expected.

 

[swfc]

45 minutes ago, MATT said:

The ECM mean does tend to improve beyond a week, especially towards the SW.. Its a little mixed in the shorter term, but nothing horrendous, I sometimes get the impression World War 3 as broken out on here judging by how quite it goes over a few poor runs.. Plenty of Summer left just yet.. 

Oh and another positive is Heights over Greenland on the mean are less intense than the op indicated..

I'd agree with you that things can get a bit  sporadic run to run but unless you have a crystal ball then I guess that's all you can go on?The background signals via Tamara and singularity are imo above most folks pay scale on here .Making a post on charts within a week is often called the max"fi"but esp in winter charts way beyond that are lauded and almost cause hysterics!!!The forecasts and models are fluid but they are what they are ,good or bad.I agree it's early summer but in regard to the models does it have any relevance

Edited June 24, 2020 by swfc

[Gael_Force]

3 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

While it may well rise regardless its worth saying that the CFS appears to not even be starting at the right point correctly for whatever region, hence why it is in conflict with the Euro. 

I shall try to remember to check back on July 5th as to whether we are near -1 or above 0 but June so far would suggest that the Euro is odds on. 

On here, I discovered that AO/NAO were not drivers of the weather: just a tool to show past synoptics and an anticipated set up from model output. Is the same not true for AAM in that it is something derived from the weather patterns modelled medium to longer term?

[Tim Bland]

1 hour ago, 38.7°C said:

ECM 12 is awful outlier from Saturday onwards right to the end of the run, a real punishment for this week if that comes off, It will be back to the long cold days and turning on the heating at night. 

Bit of an over reaction isn’t it?! Even IF the 12z runs are correct it’s still low 20s by day and double digits by night for most with showers at times ?! 

[swfc]

Just now, Gael_Force said:

On here, I discovered that AO/NAO were not drivers of the weather: just a tool to show past synoptics and an anticipated set up from model output. Is the same not true for AAM in that it is something derived from the weather patterns modelled medium to longer term?

You are correct,they are not drivers of the weather ,AO-NAO.they are a measurement  of the projected outcome 

[Djdazzle]

May have to wait a couple of weeks for our next hot spell.

[jimben]

2 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

May have to wait a couple of weeks for our next hot spell.

Will tie in quite nicely with my move to the lake district

[summer blizzard]

32 minutes ago, Gael_Force said:

On here, I discovered that AO/NAO were not drivers of the weather: just a tool to show past synoptics and an anticipated set up from model output. Is the same not true for AAM in that it is something derived from the weather patterns modelled medium to longer term?

Yes, in simple terms it is a reflection of whether the tropics are generating net easterlies or westerlies. The Euro believes there will be net easterlies enhancing the mid-lattitude westerlies as a response, the GFS/CFS (CFS gets its data from GFS) believes not.

[Mike Poole]

29 minutes ago, Gael_Force said:

On here, I discovered that AO/NAO were not drivers of the weather: just a tool to show past synoptics and an anticipated set up from model output. Is the same not true for AAM in that it is something derived from the weather patterns modelled medium to longer term?

I think this applies to all measures.   With the weather, everything is connected, it is what makes it so fascinating.  But despite tonight's output in FI, I wouldn't give up on the AAM signal just yet, it is moving to parity at least in the reliable as per CFS:

But for the UK it is not the be all and end all, and if it bubbles around like this, there will be settled weather available, more the further SE you are, I would suggest...let's firm things up after we've enjoyed the current hot spell...

[Mr Frost]

11 hours ago, General Cluster said:

Oh, come on, Gord:

I spent all of my younger (sub-30 years' old) days hearing about severe thunderstorms in East Anglia, Kent and up the East Coast; and then spent an almost thunderless 21 years in Inverness... These days, though, @Mr Frost and @Kirkcaldy Weather  and @Stuart get way more storms than I do...

If I were Donald (Female Body Inspector) Trump, I'd buy myself a private jet! 

Perfect timing! 

 

Convective Weather

WWW.CONVECTIVEWEATHER.CO.UK

---

Forecasting thunderstorms and severe convective weather across the British Isles and Ireland for up to the next 5 days.

 

2 hours ago, Daniel* said:

Poor @Mr Frost! It’s a disaster for W Scotland exceptionally cool too.

Seems like there is no real room for manoeuvre out of this mess for NW parts ECM 12z was an OK run for us in the southeast. Less warm than 00z to be expected.

 

Yes - really awful run! Just caught up with it! Mid Autumn weather! 

Better make the most of my 27/28/29C tomorrow! 

Pretty impressive how far North this plume has come - It was not looking that good a few days ago.

30C in Glasgow tomorrow? 

Currently a stunning Summer night up here.

 

All the best to you all! Enjoy or do not enjoy the heat! 

Cheers! 

Edited June 24, 2020 by Mr Frost

[damianslaw]

59 minutes ago, jimben said:

Will tie in quite nicely with my move to the lake district

Good luck, a move to the wettest part of England and an area not renowned for its warm weather - still it's a great place to live, we have our own unique climate here!

Firmly on the wrong side of the NW-SE divide..

Edited June 24, 2020 by damianslaw

[Djdazzle]

1 hour ago, jimben said:

Will tie in quite nicely with my move to the lake district

Please don’t hold me to that!

[Methuselah]

This morning's GFS 00Z is nothing special, longer term, but @Mr Frost's house looks good for some storms:

    

    

    

    

    

But, overall, things don't look like being too bad; and there should be enough potential kinks around, for brief much warmer/much cooler snaps thrown in?

And, the (18Z) ens mean and the op's T850s look to hold up quite well, too; so, nothing too nasty lurking in the woodshed at the mo... and, add the compulsory 3C to the 2m temps, and things don't look bad at all:

    

    

18Z NH profiles:

    

    

[bluearmy]

19 hours ago, Man With Beard said:

Amazingly the ECM clusters for D11-D15 are split exactly the same as Monday's - 27 members for a less settled and cooler picture dominated by a Scandi trough, and 24 members sending a ridge over the UK (heatwave potential).

Not really much to say, therefore, only time will tell!

A day on and it’s clear that yesterday’s 00z ecm suite was erroneously skewed ......strangely the parallel was also keen on the mid week upper ridge .......it does happen with ecm which is why just having decent ens support on that model isn’t the be all and end all.  Continuity from suite to suite across the nwp is more important. 

[Gordon Webb]

hello

just looking at the met office fax charts and there thinner lines and lines that are more bold

am I right in assuming these are fronts and troughs

[Guest]

1 hour ago, General Cluster said:

This morning's GFS 00Z is nothing special, longer term, but @Mr Frost's house looks good for some storms:

    

    

    

    

    

But, overall, things don't look like being too bad; and there should be enough potential kinks around, for brief much warmer/much cooler snaps thrown in?

And, the (18Z) ens mean and the op's T850s look to hold up quite well, too; so, nothing too nasty lurking in the woodshed at the mo... and, add the compulsory 3C to the 2m temps, and things don't look bad at all:

    

    

18Z NH profiles:

    

    

Don't know how you can say GFS is not bad, we have a low that hangs around for 6days, followed by a brief northerly and then 3 further lows moving across the UK. Its pretty awful! UKMO is pretty yucky and ECM is just disgusting, after tomorrow it does have temps above 18C for here the rest of the run and while things will ebb and flow when ECM is showing temps maxing at 14-16C in parts for the south and even lower further north its time to be concerned. Lets just hope its not another 3 weeks until things warm up!!!

[Methuselah]

Watch my lips!

But, seriously, as I work outside throughout the year, a patch of average weather is good for me; and, being 'ever so slightly odd', I tend to work flat-out until the point of collapse... So, while a few hot, sunny days, here and there, are always a good thing, I tend to overdo things a tad...?

I'd like to blame it on my ASD, but it might be simply that I'm just an idiot!

[johnholmes]

looking at the 6-10 and 8-14 NOAA 500 mb charts then 2 weeks may well be at least what is coming. Of course not all the time, but cooler than average at times and with rain at times is a brief summary perhaps. What happens beyond 2 weeks I'll leave to others.

The EC-GFS for this morning is not available yet but the charts for yesterday were pretty similar to what NOAA shows.

Climate Prediction Center - 6-10 Day 500mb Outlook

WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

 

 

[mountain shadow]

Absolute horrendous ECM 0z. Northerly blocking, lows parked near or over us. No sign of anything remotely Summer like in the next ten days.

 

[Guest]

12 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Absolute horrendous ECM 0z. Northerly blocking, lows parked near or over us. No sign of anything remotely Summer like in the next ten days.

 

Its an absolute howler isn't it and as quickly as it moved from a potential secondary ridge building in next week to this pile of utter garbage you know it'll take three times as long to settle down. Seeing what I see in the models this mornings (and I've tried to stay away from them as wanted to enjoy the current pleasant conditions) it's hard to see any warm up before the end of the first tercile of July at best.

[johnholmes]

And this morning from EC-GFS simply confirms what I said about yesterday's charts.

It really does seem that the upper air pattern is setting up for a 6-14 day period with possible a NW-SE split with the best of 'any' settled weather the further SE one llives with the most unsettled as one gets further NW. There will be occasions when all areas are affected by bands of rain though, certainly markedly cooler than most areas have just been having. Not sure about wind strengths from the charts. The contour lines suggest no major developments to me this morning but individual days may show different.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

[tallsmithy]

Looks like typical Wimbledon weather is on the way, the irony its not even on this year 

[damianslaw]

2 hours ago, Alderc said:

Don't know how you can say GFS is not bad, we have a low that hangs around for 6days, followed by a brief northerly and then 3 further lows moving across the UK. Its pretty awful! UKMO is pretty yucky and ECM is just disgusting, after tomorrow it does have temps above 18C for here the rest of the run and while things will ebb and flow when ECM is showing temps maxing at 14-16C in parts for the south and even lower further north its time to be concerned. Lets just hope its not another 3 weeks until things warm up!!!

Yes very poor outlook on the temperature front, especially compared to what we have today - we are entering July and maximum temps reach their yearly average peak, low 20s for most, 24 degrees in London, high teens is below average, mid teens notably so.

Lots of rain as well especially for the north and west - very poor for high summer. Oh dear..

 

[mb018538]

I find that not looking too far ahead in these type of scenarios works best. In my 20 odd years of watching models I’ve found that when an unsettled pattern sets in, the models tend to run with it with no end in sight. Happens a lot in winter too. Then seemingly from nowhere a change will appear. Best to keep looking 7-10 days tops and ignore anything beyond. As Tamara always says, the background signals lead the models, not the other way around.

Edited June 25, 2020 by mb018538

[mb018538]

You wouldn’t think we are in peak summer with all the greens and blues on this chart! Looks more like autumn!

Edited June 25, 2020 by mb018538