Model Output Discussion - Into Summer 2020.

[Zak M]

ECM looks quite interesting at 144, could see HP trying to build back in for the south...

[Mike Poole]

Looks a brief breakdown, then better ECM T144:

I'm expecting this to be the story throughout July now, some call it the NW/SE split, but I'm just seeing settled periods interspersed with unsettled or thundery breakdowns, but I guess that's because I live in the south!

[Zak M]

7 minutes ago, Zak M said:

ECM looks quite interesting at 144, could see HP trying to build back in for the south...

And it does!

[Daniel*]

58 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Really uninspiring fayre on offer on tonight’s 12z runs....succession of low pressures rolling in off the Atlantic from Friday onwards, with only fleeting drier spells. Looks more like October than the height of summer!

You know what they say summer time is May-June in far north, I can understand that looking at ECM! Really awful run for Scotland wet, and very cool.

[mb018538]

6 minutes ago, Zak M said:

And it does!

Think our definitions of high pressure must be different Zak!

This isn’t good. At all. Low pressure starting to get pinned close to the UK with high pressure wedged to the NW and SE. We will end up with the washing machine treatment of lows trundling around for a while I feel.

[slater]

2 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Think our definitions of high pressure must be different Zak!

This isn’t good. At all. Low pressure starting to get pinned close to the UK with high pressure wedged to the NW and SE. We will end up with the washing machine treatment of lows trundling around for a while I feel.

 

[slater]

The weather charts obviously listen in on Boris update today... let’s ruin the UK economy from 4th July... so hope it’s wrong 

[Mike Poole]

ECM T216' seriously?

I think this run went wrong a bit ago!

[Djdazzle]

As I said before, there is so much scatter in some of the ensembles. I don't think there is any cause for concern just yet.

[mb018538]

I agree mike. The 240 chart is just crazy, and nothing like the ensembles at all.

[Djdazzle]

Just now, mb018538 said:

I agree mike. The 240 chart is just crazy, and nothing like the ensembles at all.

The issue is that there is no strong signal for any pattern, so we seem to be seeing a plethora of solutions going forward.

I'm waiting for this much touted AAM to kick in.

[Frosty.]

I haven’t seen many charts posted about the potentially thundery breakdown on Friday, an explosive end to our little hot spell so here is the Gfs 12z operational runs take on it!!!

[Schnee]

1 minute ago, JON SNOW said:

I haven’t seen many charts posted about the potentially thundery breakdown on Friday, an explosive end to our little hot spell so here is the Gfs 12z operational runs take on it!!!

Thank you for posting this, I have been wondering how explosive Friday will be around Yorkshire.

[Mike Poole]

4 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

The issue is that there is no strong signal for any pattern, so we seem to be seeing a plethora of solutions going forward.

I'm waiting for this much touted AAM to kick in.

So am I!  I can only post the CFS AAM plot, because none others are available to the general public.  Anyway, CFS actually looking very good bringing AAM to average within days and bullish thereafter:

But with the 12z suite tonight, don't believe anything beyond T96 at the moment, and there are differences at even T96.  Very volatile situation, I try to put the later stages of the individual runs through a filter of 'is this a likely evolution', and to be honest in most model runs it is 'no'!  But the weather still has to do something....we will see...

[Djdazzle]

Just now, Mike Poole said:

So am I!  I can only post the CFS AAM plot, because none others are available to the general public.  Anyway, CFS actually looking very good bringing AAM to average within days and bullish thereafter:

But with the 12z suite tonight, don't believe anything beyond T96 at the moment, and there are differences at even T96.  Very volatile situation, I try to put the later stages of the individual runs through a filter of 'is this a likely evolution', and to be honest in most model runs it is 'no'!  But the weather still has to do something....we will see...

I suppose the algorithms, when there are weak signals, will default to more of a zonal westerly pattern, which is of course very typical for our location.

[mb018538]

4 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

So am I!  I can only post the CFS AAM plot, because none others are available to the general public.  Anyway, CFS actually looking very good bringing AAM to average within days and bullish thereafter:

But with the 12z suite tonight, don't believe anything beyond T96 at the moment, and there are differences at even T96.  Very volatile situation, I try to put the later stages of the individual runs through a filter of 'is this a likely evolution', and to be honest in most model runs it is 'no'!  But the weather still has to do something....we will see...

As I mentioned earlier, CFS has a known positive bias with AAM. Here’s the equivalent ECM forecast, which is completely different.

[Mr Frost]

39 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

You know what they say summer time is May-June in far north, I can understand that looking at ECM! 

I think that is an old fairytale/myth mate. 

 

That is like saying SE England never gets any decent snowfall in January or February. 

I do agree about the ECM run being awful though for up here. 

 

Very wet indeed!

Tell you what though I am looking forward to Thursday! 

 

Bring on this brief blast of heat and risk of thunderstorms already! (Thursday/Friday IMBY) 

That is what Summer is all about for me. 

Have a good night everyone! 

Edited June 23, 2020 by Mr Frost

[carinthian]

15 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

As I said before, there is so much scatter in some of the ensembles. I don't think there is any cause for concern just yet.

Yes, I agree. Certainly GFS /ECM going for a trough dominated Atlantic to evolve next week, apart from the UKMO that pushes a Azores Ridge over Southern Britain  early next week.. Could be a N/S divide without full blown Atlantic . Who would you put your money/ hunch on  ? Maybe another twist in the morning /

 C

[Mike Poole]

2 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

I suppose the algorithms, when there are weak signals, will default to more of a zonal westerly pattern, which is of course very typical for our location.

I've never bought this idea, the models just model the physics, not the defaults.  They don't know what that means locally.  It is just that uncertainty is large at the moment, FI is somewhere between T72 and T96 at the moment, so best to enjoy the rest of this week, everyone, before worrying about the one after!  Mea culpa, I know, but we are living in very odd times!

[Mike Poole]

11 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

As I mentioned earlier, CFS has a known positive bias with AAM. Here’s the equivalent ECM forecast, which is completely different.

But surely as of today 23 June, they should match, they don't

Is the ECM a prediction from the start of June by any chance?  In which case, I would argue it has been overtaken by events and proved wrong!!

By the way, can you give me a link to the ECM AAM charts, please?

Edited June 23, 2020 by Mike Poole

[mb018538]

It isn’t from the start of June - it’s a forecast from today. I’m not sure why they don’t match to be honest! Maybe someone with a better understanding could tell me why?

[Cheshire Freeze]

I think the issue so far is that we've seen the AO and NAO drift more towards -ve as T-0 has approached. This has been happening for a few weeks and was expected given we are in a solar minimum summer. The charts showing a strong +NAO and associated strong Azores ridging are watered down nearer the time, with the Atlantic troughing getting closer to the UK than initially looked likely.

On an aside, it stands us in good stead going into winter...

Edited June 23, 2020 by CreweCold

[Captain Shortwave]

So overall, the weekend looks pretty unsettled and increasingly windy. However we may get a respite at the start of the following week with some sort of ridge moving in from the south west (probably more a NW/SW split but still temperatures probably returning to the mid-twenties by Tuesday). However I suspect the form horse on the weather type will be something close to average in pretty much every way as we move into July.

Edited June 23, 2020 by Captain Shortwave

[mb018538]

1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

I think the issue so far is that we've seen the AO and NAO drift more towards -ve as T-0 has approached. This has been happening for a few weeks and was expected given we are in a solar minimum summer. The charts showing a strong +NAO and associated strong Azores ridging are watered down nearer the time, with the Atlantic troughing getting closer to the UK than initially looked likely.

On an aside, it stands us in good stead going into winter...

That’s interesting - I’ve read a fair bit of pessimism regarding winter with the failed eQBO and it going back westerly again.

[Mike Poole]

3 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

It isn’t from the start of June - it’s a forecast from today. I’m not sure why they don’t match to be honest! Maybe someone with a better understanding could tell me why?

Well it obviously isn't reproducing your chart:

The different runs diverge from ages ago!!  Probably from some runs weeks ago, I would suggest.