Model Output Discussion - Into Summer 2020.

[sheikhy]

9 minutes ago, MATT said:

 Not a chance that ECM will agree with the GFS 18z mate, you will probably find the GFS 0z won't even agree with it... Icon, Arpege and GEM looking hot for next Thursday. 

I feel more comfortable that the ecm is showing the heat lasting longer and not the gfs as the ecm has been the best performing model together with ukmo!!but i think its just our luck that the gfs will be right lol!!

[Mark wheeler]

Such difference between the Icon and Goofus tonight . I don’t want to troll it too much as it might just happen .

[ribster]

16 minutes ago, Mark wheeler said:

Well you know what I’m glad Gfs shows this on the pub run . Why? Because One it’s Gfs and two It’s normally wrong .

Looks very similar to UKMO at 144 to me, we've all seen ECM implode at just 72 hours. 

[Mark wheeler]

1 minute ago, ribster said:

Looks very similar to UKMO at 144 to me, we've all seen ECM implode at just 72 hours. 

Can’t be discounted at all , I’m just waiting for my favourite 18z Navgem run to put my mind at ease

[Zak M]

Good evening/morning all, I personally think that will see some brief unsettled weather into next weekend after the sweltering heat but I don't think that will last too long as high pressure starts to ridge in again.

Here are the 12z ECM clusters for day 7 and 9:

   

11 members on the right have high pressure in charge, mainly for the south, from Monday up to day 7, with the north only being confined to the unsettled weather. The other 40 members have something unsettled on the cards on day 7. Plenty of time for change so I'm not taking it as gospel. All of the members however on day 9 have high pressure dominating/nearby, so there could be hints of something more settled as we head into the end of June and start of July. Plenty of time for this to change too.

Now for the 8-10 day 500mb mean, ECM on the left has a high not far away to the east of us with a low not too far away either to the right of us. I'm guessing there could be a chance of some thundery weather confined for the SE while in the north it is wet and windy, with temperatures below average. GFS on the right has the high further south and instead opens doors to a trough. The trough it's showing looks quite deep so I assume, if this was ever to come off, there would be some windy and wet weather (once again, a very low chance of verifying!)

7+ days out is months away in a situation like this so for now, just enjoy the weather that's coming as much as you can.

Thanks all, good night. 

Edited June 20, 2020 by Zak M

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

GFS looks like Autumn in FI is that Northern blocking?, with a jet stream pushed way to the South. You wont find summer in that set up. Good job its in FI, probably be gone on next run (fingers crossed)  That green blob looks like a dinosaur 

Edited June 20, 2020 by 38.7°C

[Mark wheeler]

Drum roll please , ladies and gents I give thee the mighty Navgem , Stay Cool peeps

 

just done the uppers for entertainment value . 

Edited June 21, 2020 by Mark wheeler

[mb018538]

Starting to look like our luck runs out on Friday....and a bit more worrying is the sign of a Greenland high building. Hopefully that low doesn’t get trapped and pinned over the UK for a week!

Until then though, the heat is on  

[Guest]

Well this mornings output is disappointing and a little unexpected especially following the really positive agreement of the 12z’s from GFS, GEM and ECM all with the warmth extending through the weekend, GFS and GEM have blown the low up through Thursday and Friday like the UKMO bringing a rapid breakdown through Friday leaving a cool and unsettled weekend. The most positive thing I can find is the GEM ensembles still want to extend the warmth somewhat with the Ops run something of a cool outlier. GFS ensembles completely back the rapid transition to cooler weather and leave it cool for a good while after too!! 
 

[Guest]

ECM still not as aggressive as the others and eeks out a hot Friday for many but certainly nothing like last nights output. Still being positive hopefully it won’t drop the low down over the U.K. and tether it too us....

[mb018538]

 

Better ECM - low positioned more to the NW, so less of a direct hit. UKMO gets things much more active between day 4-6 and engages the jetstream more significantly.

[Methuselah]

Well, well, well; quelle surprise... this morning's GFS 00Z op is nowhere near as bad as I was expecting: we are, for most of the time at least, under yellows, oranges or reds:

    

    

    

    

     

    

And, thank goodness it's going to rain!

But scatter takes over the ens after the beginning of July, so I'll no' be worrying too much about that; but, it does, perhaps, suggest a pattern-change?

    

    

NH profiles:

    

 

    

So it does look, now (hasn't it always?) as if the hot spell will only last some 5 days...

[Djdazzle]

00z runs - we all know they are the more progressive suite. ECM pretty good still.

[Frosty.]

Well I say bring on the heat and the ECM 0z operational replies..your wish is my command!!...in a nutshell, there’s a hot spell incoming!...temps soaring into the low 30’s c..so, mid / high 80’s / low 90’s F + 

 

Edited June 21, 2020 by JON SNOW

[bluearmy]

Ecmp has the low next weekend a little further south than the op and closer to the more progressive models. Doesn’t look like a long interruption to a generally decent background but interesting nonetheless that a fairly innocuous looking system meandering across the Atlantic can become so affective. not currently looking like any sustained period of any particular type of set up can become established bar the usual nw/se split of less settled to more settled ......

[Man With Beard]

Unusual to see ECM pursuing a path over several runs (Azores High ridging over the top) and then moving considerably towards GFS/UKMO

Still, the Atlantic low vs heights to the east makes the forecast more difficult in my opinion. It often works out that the Atlantic low has far more difficulty in pushing through the pattern than modelled. Whether that would mean extended heat for the UK or a trough stuck over us - or the current prognosis - we aren't quite at the point of no return yet. 

Heat for Tuesday to Thursday, and quite possibly Friday, looking more and more certain, with 30/31/32C the likely high point imo. 

[Guest]

 

38 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

00z runs - we all know they are the more progressive suite. ECM pretty good still.

Are they though, that’s what it feels like but is there any evidence to back this up? 
 

It’s like the so called pub run from GFS which I seem to recall isn’t the poorest performing from the 4 daily runs? 

[mb018538]

The ecm ensembles are actually fairly decent, and don’t show the low hanging around as much. Maybe the UKMO being a tad over aggressive?

[Ice Day]

Although the weather is never set in stone, we are now seeing the probable breakdown of this weeks hot spell by next Saturday.  As with this week, the placement of next weekend's low will determine what happens immediately after.

ECM / GFS / UKMO

      

I'd say this is quite impressive agreement for 6 days out!  The ECM is currently modelling this low slightly further north than GFS or UKMO, so this is something to watch in the next few days.  *IF* the the ECM is to be believed, things won't look too bad at all moving into days 8-10 (especially for those in the south). 

To be honest, given the scorching temperatures coming this week, a cool down will probably be quite welcome.

[Ice Day]

Double post!

Edited June 21, 2020 by Ice Day

[Faronstream]

1 minute ago, Ice Day said:

a cool down will probably be quite welcome.

The thing is that we don't know for how long that will hold on for, in our part of the world we can't risk getting trapped under lows in the beginning of high summer aka july beacuse there is a big risk for it to continue through the rest or most of summer

[mushymanrob]

Pure speculation here, but when these contour lines are "flat" they seldom stay flat for very long, maybe a few days.
Then theyll buckle, and show a forming ridge/trough pattern. This happened last August, and the ridge evolved into the Bank Holiday heatwave.
If you have faith in the accuracy of these charts (when consistent) then you can IMHO take a speculative punt on the direction they are heading beyond the 14 day current limit, based on past pattern evolutions. Given that, after a period of normal average unsettled westerly based weather following the breakdown of this weeks heat, the next ridging/warm spell could be here (or near) by the end of week 1 in July.
I doubt whether many would agree with this (looking at you @johnholmes lol) but hey, we will see ... nothing to lose and trying to understand the complexities is fun!

 

[Mike Poole]

44 minutes ago, Alderc said:

 

Are they though, that’s what it feels like but is there any evidence to back this up? 
 

It’s like the so called pub run from GFS which I seem to recall isn’t the poorest performing from the 4 daily runs? 

Currently the GFS 18z is the best performing at day 5. But in reality the difference between the 4 runs looks not statistically significant.  The 0z v 12z question has to my knowledge never been properly answered - but if there is an effect it is not confined to GFS, but affects all models.  

Edited June 21, 2020 by Mike Poole

[bluearmy]

24 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

Pure speculation here, but when these contour lines are "flat" they seldom stay flat for very long, maybe a few days.
Then theyll buckle, and show a forming ridge/trough pattern. This happened last August, and the ridge evolved into the Bank Holiday heatwave.
If you have faith in the accuracy of these charts (when consistent) then you can IMHO take a speculative punt on the direction they are heading beyond the 14 day current limit, based on past pattern evolutions. Given that, after a period of normal average unsettled westerly based weather following the breakdown of this weeks heat, the next ridging/warm spell could be here (or near) by the end of week 1 in July.
I doubt whether many would agree with this (looking at you @johnholmes lol) but hey, we will see ... nothing to lose and trying to understand the complexities is fun!

 

The eps clusters show a 67/33 split on fairly flat flow and a W euro ridge in the 8/14 day period so plenty to be decided there .....as it happens rob, think back a week or so and we were looking at the 8/14 day upper flow chart showing the Atlantic trough extending towards w Iberia and a sceuro ridge .....fast forward a week to the current 1/8 day mean and you get this ..... not bad .... 

 

 

and as for the current 8/14 eps output, it probably looks something like this .....

 

Edited June 21, 2020 by bluearmy

[mountain shadow]

Very zonal looking charts this morning. 

Here's hoping it's just a short blip.