Model Output Discussion - Into Summer 2020.

[Methuselah]

Today's GFS 00Z op brings some notable heat by the middle of next week and a breakdown of sorts by the weekend; but, will it go out with a bang, or be a damp squib? And, after that, high-pressure is never too far away:

    

    

    

    

    

And, not a bad GEFS 00Z ens mean; but a potential worry, for the longer-term, might be a lack of any significant rainfall:

    

    

NH profiles:

    

    

[Man With Beard]

ECM reverts to its 00Z solution from yesterday morning - no cut-off low, Azores High ridges to join ridge to the east, heat gets trapped in the SE corner for a couple more days, only leaving the UK on Sunday. Possibility of 30C being reached each day between Wednesday and Saturday. However, other models differ, UKMO looks set for a breakdown during Friday. 

[mb018538]

So where are we today?

Tuesday sees the heat building.

Wednesday and Thursday look like scorchers, with 30-32c expected in the SE, and very warm in most other areas.

Friday probably still looks good. ECM, UKMO and GFS have another hot 30c+ day, though GEM turns it unsettled. You’d have to favour the heat hanging on here.

Change likely into Saturday as both gfs and ecm change the flow more westerly, which takes temperatures down a bit, but still a more than respectable 25-27c in places, though becoming more confined to the SE at this point.

[mushymanrob]

9 hours ago, Allseasons-si said:

Hey guys and good evening

and thanks to all for the great posts"again" and there is no wonder why with how the models are handling this next projected warm/hot spell next week that has been showing for the last few days in the NWP and now it is a question of how long it will last and nobody knows that just yet but post ten days which is an eternity away that the Atlantic tries to make an influence by the trough out W/NW then a re-surge/second bite from the Azores high could potentially influence the weather again later in the period but i am rambling too far ahead...but am i?

the latest from CPC/NOAA 500mb height anomaly's for the periods 6-10 and 8-14 days is has how you was from the last week believe it or not with high pressure centered over southern Scandinavia with surface flow from the south with upper flow from the SW,now the extended over the last few days was a trough sitting over or close to the UK but the latest extended shows the trough lifting out to the N/NW,this is an upgrade from previous in terms of keeping the fine warm and settled conditions for the UK especially the SE,the signal to me looks like a NW/SE split to me,how much further can we lift this trough out further to the north for more of the UK to benefit?

 

 

What im looking for is a drop in pressure in the Western Atlantic, id like to see the Azores high track Eastwards and re-enforce the Euro high . That could lead to a proper lengthy hot spell by the end of the first week in July... Yep, thats speculation, or hopecasting, but tbh ive done that successfully a few times by guessing the progression of the ridge/trough pattern these charts predict.

[johnholmes]

I'll drop my pennorth in re the anomaly charts?

This morning the 500 mb actual chart shows this with the predicted chart for 6-10 days showing this;

oh well my pc ability again, the predicted chart is on the left and the actual is on the right

To me this shows slightly that the 6-10 has less contour ridging than the actual has. To me this suggests that after the warm/hot spell next week we will probably be in a less settled and somewhat cooler regime. This is because the upper ridge is going to have less influence than early/mid week. The 8-14 from NOAA shows almost no Scandinavian upper ridge with an even more Atlantic flow. So to pin hopes, as seems to be being done this morning, on a  more prolonged hot spell is not borne out by the predicted upper air pattern.

Like I say just my take on things this morning

 

[carinthian]

Morning all , a big warm up forecast from the models for mid -week in Western Europe/ including most of the British Isles. Mixed signals from the models regarding how long to lasts but 30c on the cards for some parts for a while. Note again the cooler temps over Central/SE Europe. The upper low has been a real feature for some time in these parts, hence a rather cloudy and none to warm spell in these parts as the disappointed summer continues. The last patch of snow vanished from the garden on 9th June but still plenty of snow patches at 2000m level.

C

[Ice Day]

It's certainly a scorching week coming up for many areas, with the ECM and GFS showing a gradual cool down next weekend.  However, the ECM Parallel is showing a slightly different solution, suggesting that the heat holds on right out to 240 in the south east with perhaps a renewed push from the south west thereafter

192 / 216 / 240

    

   

Great time to get outdoors and enjoy, superb.
 

 

[Guest]

So no major changes in the output this morning which is good. Increasingly warm through Tuesday, Wed & Thurs warm for many with 30C likely, I actually think GFS appears to have a decent handle on temps this week so don't expect it to be out by 2-3C especially across the south east. Post Thursday the question marks begin. I suspect we'll sneak another warm day on Friday however one thing that currently looks not on the cards is any thundery breakdown, looks as though the more recent trend for warmth to depart with whimper opposed to a bang looks set to continue? Can someone tell me is just one of those things you make up in your mind or are we actually seeing less of the powerful thundery breakdowns to hot spells? If so why? 

[Djdazzle]

3 minutes ago, Alderc said:

So no major changes in the output this morning which is good. Increasingly warm through Tuesday, Wed & Thurs warm for many with 30C likely, I actually think GFS appears to have a decent handle on temps this week so don't expect it to be out by 2-3C especially across the south east. Post Thursday the question marks begin. I suspect we'll sneak another warm day on Friday however one thing that currently looks not on the cards is any thundery breakdown, looks as though the more recent trend for warmth to depart with whimper opposed to a bang looks set to continue? Can someone tell me is just one of those things you make up in your mind or are we actually seeing less of the powerful thundery breakdowns to hot spells? If so why? 

GFS tends to do better with temps in a more mobile pattern. I’d still expect them to be undercooked this week. Would be very surprised if we don’t break 90F.

Edited June 20, 2020 by Djdazzle

[Guest]

4 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

GFS tends to do better with temps in a more mobile pattern. I’d still expect them to be undercooked this week. Would be very surprised if we don’t break 90F.

I think 90f is probably about a 25% chance currently, 850s are only briefly 15C, and mainly 13-14C so getting 32C will be very good going. Usually out our latitude if you get 16-17C out of the 850's you're doing pretty well even when we have peak insolation. Back in 2018 under almost ideal conditions we managed to sneak 18-19C on top of 850s of 11-12C to get to 31C I think (might of been here in Bournemouth actually). Current conditions are certainly not ideal, its been wet, it'll be wet again tonight and the airmass is much more humid. 

[Djdazzle]

3 minutes ago, Alderc said:

I think 90f is probably about a 25% chance currently, 850s are only briefly 15C, and mainly 13-14C so getting 32C will be very good going. Usually out our latitude if you get 16-17C out of the 850's you're doing pretty well even when we have peak insolation. Back in 2018 under almost ideal conditions we managed to sneak 18-19C on top of 850s of 11-12C to get to 31C I think (might of been here in Bournemouth actually). Current conditions are certainly not ideal, its been wet, it'll be wet again tonight and the airmass is much more humid. 

The flow will also help. Some models also have slightly higher uppers. I think 25% is cautious, but we will see!

[Frosty.]

Well, I’ve only looked at the ECM 0z operational so far but all I can say is, phew what a SCORCHER!!..sure, some will nitpick about cooler intrusions blah blah but the fact is that next week will hot up and 32c 90f is realistic for parts of the s / se..perhaps a notch or two higher!

 

Edited June 20, 2020 by JON SNOW

[Leo97t]

Hmm gradual dings afterwards of a more mobile spell on the means and this is backed up by this met office and BBC forecast being quite bullish about this transition lasting a while. I've also noticed increasing amounts of northern blocking on each GFS run I wonder if this is gonna be forcing a less settled spell

Edited June 20, 2020 by Leo97t

[Djdazzle]

1 minute ago, Leo97t said:

Hmm gradual dings afterwards of a more mobile spell on the means and this is backed up by this met office and BBC forecast being quite bullish about this transition lasting a while

Like the Meto were bullish about June being warm and settled?

The BBC forecast isn’t even worth reading.

[Captain Shortwave]

Talking temperatures, the ECM has been showing higher 850s than both the GFS and UKMO. Usually the ECM is pretty close so that in turn could add a degree or two to the GFS predictions. I think 90f looks very probable at the moment and maybe this could be reached on multiple days.

Further ahead, I can see the rationale in regards to cooler and less settled conditions returning. A ridge looks likely to develop up the East coast of the US/Canada with the Euro ridge moving east towards Russia. So that leaves the U.K. more likely to sit under a broad trough, so a generally westerly pattern does look likely. Still a lot of time for this to change to something more positive though.

Edited June 20, 2020 by Captain Shortwave

[Methuselah]

Well, as much as I love seeing temperature records fall (which won't happen next week!) just looking at Friday's synoptics gives me a tense, nervous headache!

    

[mb018538]

11 minutes ago, Leo97t said:

Hmm gradual dings afterwards of a more mobile spell on the means and this is backed up by this met office and BBC forecast being quite bullish about this transition lasting a while. I've also noticed increasing amounts of northern blocking on each GFS run I wonder if this is gonna be forcing a less settled spell

This was never forecast to be a long lasting settled spell though? It was always going to be a few hot days before a breakdown of sorts- the question being when this happens etc.

[ribster]

11 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

Like the Meto were bullish about June being warm and settled?

The BBC forecast isn’t even worth reading.

Not if they don't say what you want to hear. I'll take their professional, highly qualified interpretation over that of an amateur thanks. Besides, like it or not that's the way the models are trending, also backed up by another ex-meteorologist earlier in the thread. 

Edited June 20, 2020 by ribster

[Guest]

Hmmm although Friday is still warm, its certainly not in bag is it and Saturday as a hot day is almost certainly a no go now. Although all that being said with a sharper and quicker looking breakdown there could be more of a trigger for storms on the GFS 06Z. 

[MattStoke]

3 minutes ago, ribster said:

Not if they don't say what you want to hear. I'll take their professional, highly qualified interpretation over that of an amateur thanks. Besides, like it or not that's the way the models are trending, also backed up by another ex-meterologist earlier in the thread. 

I normally defend the likes of the Met Office to the hilt but even the pros are often wrong beyond a week. 

[Methuselah]

9 minutes ago, ribster said:

Not if they don't say what you want to hear. I'll take their professional, highly qualified interpretation over that of an amateur thanks. Besides, like it or not that's the way the models are trending, also backed up by another ex-meteorologist earlier in the thread. 

Even when they say exactly what I want to hear, Ribster...The Beeb's long-rangers have gotten worse, since they parted company with the UKMO. IMO.

[Djdazzle]

12 minutes ago, ribster said:

Not if they don't say what you want to hear. I'll take their professional, highly qualified interpretation over that of an amateur thanks. Besides, like it or not that's the way the models are trending, also backed up by another ex-meteorologist earlier in the thread. 

 They said June would be a very warm and settled month. I wanted to hear that, but still didn’t believe it. The standard of forecasts and analyses in this thread far exceeds what the Met Office put out to the general public. If you are happy with that then be my guest. As for the BBC,

Edited June 20, 2020 by Djdazzle

[Guest]

Things quickly go downhill through next weekend looking at the 06Z run, large upper trough moving towards the UK for day9/10....Immediate payback weather! 

[Captain Shortwave]

An example of a run where the U.K. keeps throwing a double six; the ECM parallel.

   
 

The parallel keeps the ridge in place for much longer. 
There is a forecasting complication at the day 4-6 range, mostly because the GFS/UKMO are modelling an area of low pressure that doesn’t exist on the ECM or it’s work in progress brother.

[Guest]

Just now, Djdazzle said:

 They said June would be a very warm and settled month. I wanted to hear that, but still didn’t believe it. The standard of forecasts and analyses in this thread far exceeds what the Met Office put out to the general public. If you are happy with that then be my guest.

To be honest I think the majority of people who took stabs at medium to longer term forecasts towards the end of May went for some form of front loaded summer. Nearly all were wrong.