Model Output Discussion - Into Summer 2020.

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, Man With Beard said:

ECM individual ensembles generally not so interested in maintaining heat late in to the run - the majority clear out the heat Thursday/Friday, some even earlier - only a few are still hot into the weekend. 

Yes, i personally don't expect this to be a protracted hot spell,still to much forcing from the Atlantic to allow for that at present.

Still, a nice little 4 or 5 day warm spell , would be lovely to see some thunderstorms as the airmasses collide later next week,perhaps.

[Mike Poole]

ECM 12z parallel at T144:

+16 uppers there.  The heat is shifted away after as per the op run and indeed ensembles, but the middle of next week looks hot, by pretty much all model output.  Given long range thoughts at the beginning of the month, when talk of a resurgence of hot weather about mid month was mooted by various of us, we are actually only going to be a week or so behind that.  Going further forward, As AAM starts to rise, I think periods of settled and hot weather interspersed with thundery breakdowns will follow into July, so that's all good!  (If you like that sort of weather).

Edited June 18, 2020 by Mike Poole

[Djdazzle]

So 30C and 90F look like being exceeded for the first time in the same spell. Just like last year.

[Portsmouth Sun]

I’m just curious but why do people think it’s clever to switch between C and F, is it just for a reaction?   

For what it’s worth next week looks good for the south, 30c is possible Wednesday through Saturday.  

[Djdazzle]

4 minutes ago, Portsmouth Sun said:

I’m just curious but why do people think it’s clever to switch between C and F, is it just for a reaction?   

For what it’s worth next week looks good for the south, 30c is possible Wednesday through Saturday.  

Simple. Just different milestones!

First 70F

First 80F

First 30C

First 90F

It that provokes a reaction then some folk clearly have issues.

[Ice Day]

Having just logged on, I see a trend developing here, the later I view the runs the better they are!  Absolute corkers today, with the ECM being the 'worst' run, but still highly desirable. 

The only question for the next week is whether it's going to get hot or very hot  

Onto the pub run 

[Djdazzle]

ICON 18z out to 120 looks better than the 12z with the low further west.

Edited June 18, 2020 by Djdazzle

[Ice Day]

By and large, the 18z GFS is very similar to the 12z out to 120.  Slight changes with the depth and size of the low but really of little consequence thus far.  This is a warm chart for the majority of the UK

 

This for next Tuesday afternoon with warmth building for the coming days.

Edited June 18, 2020 by Ice Day

[Man With Beard]

Looks like this GFS will move in the next Azores High so quickly that the plume is shoved away on Thursday. 

A hot Tuesday and Wednesday looks fairly certain, the rest is still to be worked out imo. 

EDIT! well I spoke far too soon, the plume makes a comeback on Friday / Saturday! 

Edited June 18, 2020 by Man With Beard

[sheikhy]

8 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

By and large, the 18z GFS is very similar to the 12z out to 120.  Slight changes with the depth and size of the low but really of little consequence thus far.  This is a warm chart for the majority of the UK

 

This for next Tuesday afternoon with warmth building for the coming days.

How on earth are temperatures only 21 22 across most places with 850 temps of 12 degrees!!unless theres cloud cover?

[Ice Day]

1 minute ago, sheikhy said:

How on earth are temperatures only 21 22 across most places with 850 temps of 12 degrees!!unless theres cloud cover?

It could be that, but it's getting hotter as the week progresses - this for Wednesday

Overall, not as good as the afternoon runs but fine details beyond 120 are still to be decided.  The direction of travel is still looking very good for most on here, if warmth and sunshine is your thing

 

[snowray]

Lovely run again from the 18z, not quite as hot but that's a good thing really as far as I am concerned, max temps mid/high 20's instead of low 30's. But the HP reasserts itself here at T186 and prolongs the warm/hot spell, a few on here mentioned that this has a fair chance of happening so could the settled weather continue into July? The Atlantic ain't done with yet, so watch this space. 

 

Edited June 18, 2020 by snowray

[Man With Beard]

11 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

How on earth are temperatures only 21 22 across most places with 850 temps of 12 degrees!!unless theres cloud cover?

There's an error on the charts - Friday 8am is 29C!

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

A nice little step back on the 18z, looks less hot in more northern places than the 12z did. Hopefully the 00z will go back forward again. 

[snowray]

1 minute ago, Man With Beard said:

There's an error on the charts - Friday 8am is 29C!

Yes they are wrong after about T138.

[northwestsnow]

GFS extending the warmth...

Another beauty of a run..

Doesn't get much better for late June...

[Leo97t]

18z has London reaching 30/31C from Wednesday to Sunday with the Azores reinfocring the settled spell. Perhaps we can expect a July similar to last year which was brilliant in the South

[Downburst]

1 hour ago, Portsmouth Sun said:

I’m just curious but why do people think it’s clever to switch between C and F, is it just for a reaction?   

For what it’s worth next week looks good for the south, 30c is possible Wednesday through Saturday.  

Daily Mail now use it. They say it’s back to British pre EU. Fair enough, except Fahrenheit was of course German and the SI units include of course Celsius. I had to laugh at the daily mail say it was as British as Fish and Chips, Herr Fahrenheit. Anyway, fine in itself and ok if you want it, but meteorology outside USA won’t be using the German Scientists scale in the future.

[snowray]

Thundery blip on Sunday evening, just for our entertainment a bit of a light show after a hot day particularly in the southeast, followed by the Azores high moving up just in time for the start of July. 

 

[Mark wheeler]

Not bad this run, Not bad at all. 

 

Edited June 18, 2020 by Mark wheeler

[northwestsnow]

I would imagine 18z is a best case scenario for summer lovers.

Hoping we see a trend for the Azores high to re-ridge in,it might mean the real heat is removed slightly quicker but on the other side of the coin will likely extend the settled weather..

[snowray]

This has got to be the best run of the summer so far, in my books anyway. Azores high starting to assert some control and temps rising back up again very quickly.

 

 

 

[StormChaseUK]

18z That will be amazing if it comes off 

It reloads the heat in a second round 

[snowray]

8 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

I would imagine 18z is a best case scenario for summer lovers.

Hoping we see a trend for the Azores high to re-ridge in,it might mean the real heat is removed slightly quicker but on the other side of the coin will likely extend the settled weather..

I prefer this extended version that includes more areas of the country and temps in the mid 20's than a couple of days of extreme heat and humidity any day of the week.

[Downburst]

2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

I would imagine 18z is a best case scenario for summer lovers.

Hoping we see a trend for the Azores high to re-ridge in,it might mean the real heat is removed slightly quicker but on the other side of the coin will likely extend the settled weather..

I think this is exactly the thought I’ve had these week. Teleconnections aside, as I have serious concerns about the posts I see saying AAM is expected to be positive, so British Isles are going to be high pressure magnets. I think the  slack trough/upper low to the WNW and south that meandered is receding, leaves a vacuum that the jet temporarily aligns to, but the over riding pressure patter suggests a jet stream suppressed in the Atlantic, and with that north of here as it exists only where differentials exist, sea surface temps suggest this to me, with feedback from that reinforcement as continent heats up.. If the ground continues to dry out, over seasonal norms, well late July or early August could toy with breaking daily temps, but I’m thinking night time temps will hit the news mid summer given the sea surface temps, lower heights at the surface, given the lack of pressure gradient with a more northerly jet, a thundery humid second half of summer Is ver much on the cards and we just got a baby version of that this week