Model Output Discussion - Into Summer 2020.

[Guest]

15 minutes ago, swfc said:

Remember 24-48hours ago it didn't look to great tbh,give it the same before getting a woody!!!

Half-mast for now then  I am looking forward to the prospect of a heatwave from midweek next week, but yes I agree some caution is advised. We are heading in the right direction but in the days ahead not every operational will be as good as this evening's output, nor will every ensemble suite. Let's enjoy the ride ahead though as the models get to grips with the intensity and longevity of this potential blowtorch! 

[Guest]

Well the GFS OPs run is certainly NO outlier, the are 9 ensembles members that stay warmer for longer, several retain the heat into July

[Frosty.]

Not surprised this is such a HOT topic with a GEFS 12z mean looking like this next week, what a peach..screams hot potential!..and looking into early July there are some peachy members too..fingers crossed gang!!

[Zak M]

In all seriousness, I think some places will see 30c next week.

[Guest]

While its near the top of the pack the GEM Ops run to the 25th is no crazy outlier, in fact there are 4 or 5 ensembles warmer......

[damianslaw]

Caution as ever with these models, we've seen in recent days very short term developments that have caused forecasts to go awry. Take today's frontal feature, wasn't forecast until very short timescales less than 48 hrs. 

[Guest]

ECM steady as she goes @ T96 and perfectly inline with GFS, UKMO & GEM

 

[Man With Beard]

ECM T120, trough already disrupting in the Atlantic, should be another hottie

[Guest]

17C 850s into the south by T144. It high pressure builds slightly more to our east the ECM could all GEM like through 168-192, if not it'll clear the warmth quickly.

[mb018538]

8 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

ECM T120, trough already disrupting in the Atlantic, should be another hottie

Sure is. ECM has 28c at 12pm in the SE Wednesday. 30c possible.

[Mark wheeler]

ECM 168 steady as she goes !!

[mb018538]

Talk about on a knife edge! This is going to take a bit of sorting out I feel. Very small changes will make a huge difference, hence some of the wild outcomes that the 12z have thrown up.

[Man With Beard]

T216 ECM - not as exciting as some other runs but still hot on the east side of the UK

[Scorcher]

I reckon the ECM is going to be an unsettled outlier later on. It's a very good run but not quite as good as the GFS or UKMO.

[mb018538]

2 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

I reckon the ECM is going to be an unsettled outlier later on. It's a very good run but not quite as good as the GFS or UKMO.

It’ll be close to the bottom of the deck. 00z had 1012mb as lowest at D9 in London, this is around 1010mb for the same time. Perhaps a bit progressive.

[Mark wheeler]

Well it’s not the worse of endings to the ecm but we have been spoilt tonight so nah we will have the Gem please . 

[Guest]

Just now, Mark wheeler said:

Well it’s not the worse of endings to the ecm but we have been spoilt tonight so nah we will have the Gem please . 

Yes to say it is the worst of the runs tonight is doing it a disservice. It's still an excellent showing. Perhaps a decent go at a second build from day 10 onwards as well.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

1 hour ago, MattStoke said:

What if the GEM is a cold outlier? 

Here you go with ens... Tbh what I do think is we may see an increase of showers breaking out by end of next week/weekend.. ECM also points this out.. Plenty of.ery warm/hot conditions in the run up though. 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

On the other hand perhaps the Azores high coming back into effect by day 10..

 

Edited June 18, 2020 by MATT☀️

[Methuselah]

Best day's model-watching day since late July, last year, I reckon...It's coming!

                                

 

[Man With Beard]

6 minutes ago, Jim Halpert said:

Yes to say it is the worst of the runs tonight is doing it a disservice. It's still an excellent showing. Perhaps a decent go at a second build from day 10 onwards as well.

Well if that's worst case scenario then you'd better get the suntan lotion out - it still manages 31C raw temps next Friday, which in reality will mean a maximum between 33C and 35C. 

I think it's game on, folks. 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

1 minute ago, General Cluster said:

Best day's model-watching day since late July, last year, I reckon...It's coming!

                                

 

What... An apocalypse Pete... The picture is well grim.. There's social distancing gone to far..

[stodge]

Evening all

Time for my occasional meander among the model output. Tonight we'll look at some T+216 charts so well into next week.

That's the 12Z output from ECM, GEM, GFS OP and GFS Control respectively.

Plenty of heat in the output especially in the preceding days and much talk of 30c being breached for the first time this year. To help out, the same charts and models as above but this time the 850s:

GEM is clearly the hottest with the 20c isotherm across the south east by Saturday week. That would mean another day with maxima of 30c or more in London. That said, there's plenty of hint of a shallow trough on the 500hpa chart from GEM so perhaps thundery or indeed very thundery rather than hot and sunny.

ECM is very different - the heat has gone or is just exiting eastern and south eastern parts leaving a fresher WNW'ly flow with rain or showers.

GFS OP keeps the British Isles in the col with the heat just to the south so again a hint of something disturbed and Control not too much different with very light winds and a col between the pressure systems.

Moving further ahead, Control soon brings back the Atlantic with the jet coming south and the Azores HP dragged south as well leaving the British Isles quite unsettled. OP is not pleasant viewing for fans of summer heat - an LP develops over the British Isles and basically remains in situ so rain or showers for many as we go into July.

I confess I don't enjoy heat and humidity but at least I'm currently not using London's own mobile sauna - surface temperatures of 30-35c can be increased to 40-45c on the Underground and I believe 50c has been recorded in the deeper tunnels on the Piccadilly and Northern lines. 

[Mike Poole]

Quite some model runs on offer today!  And notable that the 0z were good too!  GEM was a cracker on the 12z.   ECM ensemble mean T168:

and T240:

Suggesting the heat slipping away, but at day 10 with recent levels of uncertainty, that is moot.  

[Man With Beard]

ECM individual ensembles generally not so interested in maintaining heat late in to the run - the majority clear out the heat Thursday/Friday, some even earlier - only a few are still hot into the weekend.