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Model Output Discussion - Into Summer 2020.


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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

4D9E2437-50E0-4B10-8296-B0FBE0262F75.thumb.gif.48a47aeca555cfa18b5dec79a3eb1fc9.gif4BFFF643-C3B9-490B-85D5-5D4C223AD374.thumb.gif.f3fd1e8d33f5a77fc95f494fd67bd618.gif

Wednesday and Thursday both showing 29c on the 6z GFS

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
2 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

4D9E2437-50E0-4B10-8296-B0FBE0262F75.thumb.gif.48a47aeca555cfa18b5dec79a3eb1fc9.gif4BFFF643-C3B9-490B-85D5-5D4C223AD374.thumb.gif.f3fd1e8d33f5a77fc95f494fd67bd618.gif

Wednesday and Thursday both showing 29c on the 6z GFS

The ridge seems more robust, on the 06Z? Not only does it keep the Atlantic at bay, for a wee while longer, it doesn't allow the 15C+ T850s much chance of invading England...?:unsure2:

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
16 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Upgrade from gfs 06z and more in line with ecm and ukmo!!heat further west as well!!fantastic output if you like heat!!

from Friday aye, Atlantic further back

ukmaxtemp.png

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

So now, if the 06Z is right, we could be in-line for a 6-day hot spell...and the eventual breakdown doesn't look like the end of the world, either::oldgood:

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

 

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I'm surprised the GFS is modelling 31C. That kind of temperature normally requires uppers of around 14-15C unless it has been extremely dry recently which is certainly has not. Perhaps the flow is perfectly oriented from the south which I know can boast temperatures, does anyone have a solid reason?

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
10 minutes ago, Leo97t said:

I'm surprised the GFS is modelling 31C. That kind of temperature normally requires uppers of around 14-15C unless it has been extremely dry recently which is certainly has not. Perhaps the flow is perfectly oriented from the south which I know can boast temperatures, does anyone have a solid reason?

850s at 13-14c. We are at maximum insolation now too, so most daylight and highest sun angle available. Plus the few days heat leading up to Friday will mean day on day stored heat. That GFS run also has dew points of 20c and humidity at 50-70% too, which would be ghastly!

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Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
1 hour ago, mb018538 said:

8B756AB2-DE1E-4CE5-B963-CDCB6DF18982.thumb.png.455ae57363921454f857b5912f8947e9.png109FBA3A-C0DC-4619-B258-1BE75FEBA64F.thumb.png.d1b25b85c1261fff0d445a0f7da30a15.png

ECM cluster ensembles for day 6 and 7 - hot and hot  

Better for all, much better.

From 24 hours ago, we seem to be seeing the troublesome trough edging further West and a more North to South alignment as opposed to SW - NE, this gives the North West an improved chance of joining the drier/very warm scenario.

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

Loads of very warm members from the 6Z run... Surely to God pushing 30C even low 30s in favoured spots later next week.. The op does its normal thing at some stage and completely falls out with the mean at times during the run, especially regarding Pressure. These two really do need to improve there relationship.. Looking good for some heat is the main topic of the day though.. Let's hope it firms up more later.

gens-2-0-168.png

gens-4-0-180.png

gens-4-1-174.png

gens-5-0-228.png

gens-5-1-216.png

gens-6-0-228.png

gens-9-0-252.png

gens-12-0-240.png

graphe4_1000_288_85___.png

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Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
29 minutes ago, Mark wheeler said:

Wow the 6z Navgem has only gone and improved on its previous good run if it’s heat your after  . This one is  sweltering . It really does like those uppers .

28588D8A-8872-4003-82D4-344D109020C5.png

D6238959-F5FF-4657-8E48-90A2EA5DC5DB.png

16FCA8CB-0D86-4931-B183-C0937D542882.gif

The NAVGEM always seriously overdoes uppers and ground temps. I’m sure it was forecasting a 44C temp last summer!

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Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester

Early days but the gfs 12z is quite something at 96 hours!!has pushed back that atlantic front way further west than this mornings 00z run!!heat and sunshine building!

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Posted
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Hot and Sunny but not opressive
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey

We would have certainly taken this a few days ago . Fantastic UKMO 144 

95211799-E7DB-47B7-9E2C-3450D04A5D69.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Day 5 looks like being a stonker!:oldgood:

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

image.thumb.png.9b6b7479431ab37320a4dc2f097becfd.png

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Posted
  • Location: Kendray,Barnsley,God's county.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow freezing fog heatwave thunderstorm
  • Location: Kendray,Barnsley,God's county.

Azores scandie ridge looking really really strong at 180hr on the 12z.

gfs-0-180.png

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Posted
  • Location: Kendray,Barnsley,God's county.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow freezing fog heatwave thunderstorm
  • Location: Kendray,Barnsley,God's county.
Just now, weathermadbarnsleylad said:

Azores scandie ridge looking really really strong at 180hr on the 12z.

gfs-0-180.png

The low out N. W is getting pushed away. 

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Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
2 minutes ago, Leo97t said:

GFS showing a proper heatwave lasting 4 days. I think the option of a more intense burst lasting shorter like the UKMo or the longer less hot GFS will be an interesting watch

Or even both together!

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Well, next Friday looks good for frying eggs, on the pavement?:yahoo:

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

image.thumb.png.83080e07ffe09448a9c9a71f0d0cd612.png

And, what a heat-low this could be...16C Uppers and all!:shok:

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

Edited by General Cluster
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What a belter the GFS is - Might not get a better model output all summer, GFS has 30c+ from next Wednesday for 5days - pleasant! Surely will be towards the top of the pack! 

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Posted
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Hot and Sunny but not opressive
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey

Ooooo You little Gem 

BB1785F2-DA95-4BD3-889B-EED99FB9D105.png

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E5FB960A-45E2-4D46-9176-71AD36B64C1F.gif

Edited by Mark wheeler
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Posted
  • Location: Inbhir Nis / Inverness - 636 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Freezing fog, frost, snow, sunshine.
  • Location: Inbhir Nis / Inverness - 636 ft asl

30C possible in the north of Scotland under this sort of flow 

ukmaxtemp.png

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