Model Output Discussion - Into Summer 2020.

[northwestsnow]

6 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

No northern blocking or -AO in the forecast at the moment either. Always a good sign for me.

Excellent news ..

[Mark wheeler]

It keeps being said but why on earth does the 12z always seem better than the 00z is it just a few people that think this .

Edit - Gem is tonight is comparison .

Edited June 17, 2020 by Mark wheeler

[Sweatyman]

3 minutes ago, Mark wheeler said:

It keeps being said but why on earth does the 12z always seem better than the 00z is it just a few people that think this .

Edit - Gem is tonight is comparison .

Said it all the time Mark for years. No idea why

[Methuselah]

14 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

Was a great run until inexplicably, it moves that low through from 192 onwards. Normally a GFS trait, and I'd expect it to be an outlier at the end.

Well, DJ -- yes and no: I've seen the GFS's 'over progressiveness' posited many times on NW, especially during the winter months and, apart from March 2018, we've had no meaningful lying snow here, since March 2013...

So, please forgive if I'm rather sceptical?

[mountain shadow]

1 hour ago, wellington boot said:

Puzzled at all the doom around here today, and all the talk of the warm up being pushed back. Already looks pretty fine in the south East by this weekend (the South East which is, by the way, home to 25% of the population, while the south Midlands and below contains half the total UK population - so reasonable to respond to that without endless caveats), and frankly the rest of this current week should see plenty of sun and warmth.

GFS 12z looks outstanding throughout. UKMO shows a slightly more pronounced this weekend but otherwise indicates the same general trend and a build of high pressure. ECM 12z so far looking promising. 

 

What's the problem here?

There's no problem, but commenting on the weather isnt just about your own backyard. 

Reading through some comments and you would think it's going to hot everywhere. It ain't.

For around 50% of the population and circa 75% of the geographical locations the Atlantic is winning out.

[Mike Poole]

ECM mean. T144 looks very good

T240:

I would imagine there are a fair few members on there nudging the Azores ridge in again?

 

[Scorcher]

12 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

There's no problem, but commenting on the weather isnt just about your own backyard. 

Reading through some comments and you would think it's going to hot everywhere. It ain't.

For around 50% of the population and circa 75% of the geographical locations the Atlantic is winning out.

That's a massive exaggeration. I get that not everyone is likely to experience hot weather next week. But Northern Ireland and Scotland often miss out in these setups- nothing unusual there. I'd say the vast majority of England's population of 56 million will experience some heat according to the op runs tonight and most of Wales. I'd say that's at least 80-90% of the UK population. The odds are always more against hot weather in NI and Scotland.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Once again a rather splendid mean away from that NW section.. Plenty of very warm and fine conditions on offer for next week.. Perhaps hints of something more unsettled come next weekend... But perhaps the SE remaining fine throughout.. Not great for the far NW, but it's peachy further South.. 

[Djdazzle]

Great ECM mean, maybe showing the op was slightly over progressive from 192.

[Captain Shortwave]

ECM ens, Tuesday - Thursday very warm or hot across a good portion of England and Wales though even areas north and west should see some sun and warmth. Week 2 sees the pattern move eastwards and flatten somewhat, but this is at a timeframe where subtle changes could slow this eastwards progression.

[mb018538]

ECM op not too far off the mean, though the general trend downwards as the Atlantic gets closer at the end of the run. Looking good for some warm or hot days.

[Mike Poole]

39 minutes ago, Mark wheeler said:

It keeps being said but why on earth does the 12z always seem better than the 00z is it just a few people that think this .

Edit - Gem is tonight is comparison .

Yes, Mark, observed this for years, in both summer and winter, the 0z suite tends to be more zonal, and for us therefore more Atlantic dominated, which is what most of us don't want to see!  The 12z tends to be more blocked.  But verification stats for the models are usually very similar on the 0z and 12z, I wouldn't think there is any statistically significant difference....which means that if there is a bias, it would have to be fairly balanced i.e. 0z zonal bias = 12z blocked bias.

Then there is the question of why there might be a bias?

I don't know, but can only envisage two possible reasons:

• The models are fed with different data.  And this would apply to all models as the data is shared.  And this leads to the bias.
• There is something about the time of day the data is collected. across the world, that leads to the bias.

If anyone does know the reason, I'd be interested to know?

[Mike Poole]

ECM 12z paralell looks very similar to the op run, here T168:

T240:

[Man With Beard]

1 hour ago, Djdazzle said:

Was a great run until inexplicably, it moves that low through from 192 onwards. Normally a GFS trait, and I'd expect it to be an outlier at the end.

Interestingly, on the ECM op run the raw temps are higher for next Thursday than Wednesday, with 29c raw maxes on the Wednesday and 30c on Thursday. And, at the risk of being a stuck record, these are normally a couple of degrees down on the actual... 

[Methuselah]

Well peeps, judging purely on the models I've seen today (I'm too darned lazy to post anything other than the GFS!) a very warm/hot spell -- of some kind -- seems almost nailed on... Famous last words!

[Zak M]

Well I haven't been posting in here frequently yesterday and today because I have been enjoying and making the most of my 

A few models have been showing some WAA from the continent, which could be making way to some warm or hot weather.

The low nearby in the Atlantic and with the warm/hot air still in place then this could give way to some big thunderstorms...

Can't wait for possibly more of these cloudscapes! (That's if what the models are currently showing come off of course... )

[Mr Frost]

Evening all

The weather has been that good recently I have not even bothered looking at the models for the mid/long term! 

Days on end now of temperatures between 20 to 23C - lovely early Summer weather!

Just seen the ECM:

 

 

Not great for up here but I’ll take a wee unsettled period for a while - definitely a theme of unsettled/settled/unsettled/settled emerging ( @CreweCold mentioned this recently)
Unsettled hasn’t been that bad so far though this Summer. 

Tell you what this record (highest temperature in the UK so far this year) will be under threat next Wednesday/Thursday if those charts become reality! 

 

Two pictures below I have taken during the current warm spell - this is what Summer is all about for me...warm/sunny convective days and colourful sunsets during the long Summer nights. 

 

All the best to you all and have a good night! 

Cheers. 

Edited June 17, 2020 by Mr Frost

[Allseasons-Si]

Hey guys,not posted in here for a while as i have been busy in the convective thread but i am liking the models for next week as i have next week off,as if i haven't had enough time off with the lock down lol

the ECM mean looks decent from 144 hrs and also the GEFS but both flatten the hp cell to the SE in fl but will it,something to keep an eye on over the next few days

it has been quiet warm in that sun for the last few days with plenty of convection about too,loving this weather although people will moan at me because it hasn't been wall to wall sunshine or sunbathing weather but that could about to change as we go into next week and maybe some more storms as the Atlantic tries to undo the hp cell modeled next week

predicted storm risk,cape and temps all subject to change of cause 

this is two of my stills from a video i captured in the peak district yesterday with folk lightning then a split CG immediately after 

looking forward to next weeks projected hot spell and i hope it comes off,i am ready for another tan.

my cats reaction to the models next week.

[emmett garland]

Thats a shockingly  horrendous forecast for my location I pray to the gods its wrong

[Mark wheeler]

13 minutes ago, emmett garland said:

Thats a shockingly  horrendous forecast for my location I pray to the gods its wrong

calm down emmett , It can’t be that bad , Sorry I couldn’t help this one . 

 

besides things might be no better than this . But it’s not shabby by any means .
 

Edited June 17, 2020 by Mark wheeler

[Zak M]

20 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

 

this is two of my stills from a video i captured in the peak district yesterday with folk lightning then a split CG immediately after 

 

Ah, yes, folk lightning... my favourite! 

18z ICON is starting to roll out, let's see how that will be.

Edited June 17, 2020 by Zak M
Didn't mean to go off topic :)

[Zak M]

12 minutes ago, emmett garland said:

Thats a shockingly  horrendous forecast for my location I pray to the gods its wrong

??!?

[Guest]

31 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

 

this is two of my stills from a video i captured in the peak district yesterday with folk lightning then a split CG immediately after 

I saw that strike from my vantage point. It was the only time I saw two cg's at the same time during my observations that evening. It was a tad more rain-wrapped from my position, though - nice clear shot you've got there  

 

[Ice Day]

Just visited the 12z's after the football and overall I would say it was well worth the wait.  I understand for those in the far west and north, the proximity to the low will make these runs less welcome, but for the vast majority on here it's looking a peach for the next 7-10 days.  Next Tuesday keeps popping up as a real hot one

The 18z is rolling, let's see what that has in store.

[damianslaw]

2 hours ago, mb018538 said:

I like the ECM day 10 tonight. Looks like a much more traditional UK summer chart - low pressure up towards the NW/Iceland, a W/SW flow and the Azores high in play.

Yes models showing a classic summer pattern for the foreseeable once we lose the current slow moving trough feature in the next couple of days. Low pressure anchored to our west - quite a deep one, throwing in rain over the weekend - widespread precipitation will be welcomed by those who have missed the heavy thundery showers this week and need some rain (far eastern locations especially).

Into next week - azores high building in and through the UK, bringing an injection of heat to SE parts, high 20s look likely, before the atlantic comes back in. 3 fine days a thunderstorm.

A marked NW-SE split then, and a typical synoptical set up that in many summers is dominant, and often traditionally sets in around late June.