Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Model Output Discussion - Into Summer 2020.


Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
18 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

Let's see if it's repeated on the 12z suite. But I agree, it's funny how certain people are very selective with when they post!

Maybe there working???Anyway better 6z from GFS esp for the south east etc. singularity made a good point and worth reading

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
20 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

890BEFE7-A5E8-46CB-B6D5-C6FD1FDE2F81.thumb.png.1b80aea073b96ddf66fc3f5620c1ce33.png88FDDD40-F61B-495F-A5CB-D11AFAAA9DB0.thumb.png.6b8d23ae83dd16a09ca443dae7d5ac62.png

 

By day 10/11 the Atlantic low has moved in turning it cooler.

That Day 10/11 surprises me as AAM should be rising by month end with associated rise in pressure?..

image.thumb.png.5e001b81467f82313e109ef356a38e5b.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

The GFS offers a sustained spell of very warm or hot weather that gradually edges north as next week goes on.

In regards to the model output, there have been several examples of exceptional synoptics being realised. The exceptional summer bank holiday weekend, the record breaking high in July 2019. The beast from the east in late February 2018 for those of a cd perspective. All scenarios that goes far beyond the deviation from the norm compared to a few days of heat pushing in from the south.

Back on topic, Atlantic trough, ridge to our east and a general flow from the south west, mixed but warm and always the opportunity that heat could be pulled up from the south if the opportunity arises. So overall it isn’t that bad and will continue to counter the cool start to the month.

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, mountain shadow said:

That Day 10/11 surprises me as AAM should be rising by month end with associated rise in pressure?..

image.thumb.png.5e001b81467f82313e109ef356a38e5b.png

This has continued to be forecast to rise since the beginning of the month and isn't getting any closer I would think it was a model bias to rise aam

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Oh my, now this is just magnificent from the Gfs 6z operational..the 0z is now a distant memory..now I’m getting very emotional!!!!☀️?️..looking at the cape values it could go BANG..it’s certainly a BOOM anyway..also bear in mind that the Gfs tends to undercook the max temps by several degrees in this type of scenario....so 90F+ then..!E0C69BE8-8E8A-4E83-BB90-FA52677FE81E.thumb.jpeg.4a222b87db573c2bdb39c46f8cdf0db8.jpeg

2763376B-38FE-4BB8-B245-F59C7E433064.thumb.png.1b1e9e44d1f987d82f8e885e9a9b78dc.png787CB6AB-419F-4463-9880-5F6478AB7E84.thumb.png.3113007f0cfcb7151bd2b3d4f76d072d.png6CCF605B-2882-4ECB-8C43-0936F0C3D144.thumb.png.b5d5e4d6c5f423bc4916fcf474e25259.pngF746AD26-0591-4EB9-8922-A1A0FC5D8ACB.thumb.png.bfd2753d73b03628d07a087d8324b50c.png0FAE266B-88BA-4870-91AE-CB4C03CBC20B.thumb.png.ff53215fb0d68a21fce1a8cfc724fd71.png5AE27BDF-74AD-4A59-9F70-257DE0BD92D8.thumb.png.7a19ee451e96958661f54bc39789e342.pngCABA48C2-56F6-4F28-B4E6-3F6039CA58F1.thumb.png.051420bfeec3e558f2b70dc8a634b2ae.png7A4BFF23-638E-4785-BAEB-94FB15BB86B6.thumb.png.b1f52e74b4e1851f3609512d58c46676.png11D8527B-1062-411B-AFEF-CF5A78EB3948.thumb.png.bb4a2a7731348d87fc64e5d2c21ab156.png0529BA6E-7E37-4E1E-A3C6-D51A7662D035.thumb.png.17728d943d510f4ccc3b70c9bfd4ab12.png

Edited by JON SNOW
  • Like 8
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
26 minutes ago, Leo97t said:

This has continued to be forecast to rise since the beginning of the month and isn't getting any closer I would think it was a model bias to rise aam

Was gona say exact same thing!!!been forecast to rise for ages but keeps getting pushed back which is why the ukmo and ecm keep looking the most unsettled out of all the models?!!settled charts keep showing at 144 hours but keep getting pushed back apart from recent gfs!!

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Some support for the 06Z from the GEFS ens, at least for a few days with T850s between 10 and 15C; not to mention an eight-day stretch with maxes between 23 and 28C::yahoo:

t850Suffolk.png    prmslSuffolk.png

t2mSuffolk.png    prcpSuffolk.png

And don't forget add the +3C GFS-Reality conversion factor, to the 2m temps!:oldgood:

 

  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
1 hour ago, mountain shadow said:

That Day 10/11 surprises me as AAM should be rising by month end with associated rise in pressure?..

image.thumb.png.5e001b81467f82313e109ef356a38e5b.png

That’s the CFS plot - ECM is not showing as much of an AAM recovery. It’s also not a golden ticket to settled weather sadly. Guess we will have to wait a bit longer to see how it plays out, as @Tamara surmises in an excellent post.

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Summer
  • Location: manchester

00z was a step back and i noticed it got some tongues wagging this morning now 06z is a step forward.

There have been more hints of a Scandi/Azores link up than a 2012 repeat. Let the trend be your friend ??

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

As already mentioned, the GEFS 6z mean turns into an absolute cracker for next week, especially the second half and shows the op had plenty of support..fingers crossed somewhere will reach and even go beyond the magic 90F!☀️?️
E7F9FE34-66CC-44FC-A971-E223DD578E29.thumb.png.15fb1e5cfaa420a7ed2bd39c6571c3c7.pngC23F2B9B-C71A-4F90-859A-B990EF9773A4.thumb.png.15ff132359cb19187be81aa5a984fc84.pngCC9BBE36-C6E1-4E87-A63C-F7CF2D8B4B71.thumb.png.500a2dec998bf22fe8a67e92f5d281c7.png024FEE10-BBB0-409E-8DA1-A90BCE76E84F.thumb.png.f904445e4a40a13065ea952a27d1bbd1.pngC2AF07A4-E06B-4CF1-8E3C-C483620BF453.thumb.png.9daa7cb12f9a045e17914c1c94aae715.pngB1A86A7E-0898-44C0-A09F-F6F309EF4AF3.thumb.png.8a3f83befc03a0aa02007b9ad9a4b6ac.png

 

  • Like 8
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Day 5, on the GFS 12Z, and it could be a hotty. Maybe yes; maybe no?:oldgrin:

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

Slight difference between UKMO and GFS at 144hrs..namely the GFS as that low pressure slightly further NW over Iceland.. Pressure building to the South, and we perhaps become very warm at least for a time. 

Looks like we could be pushing our first 30C by mid to later next week. 

gfs-0-144 (1).png

UW144-21.gif

gfs-1-156.png

gfs-1-180.png

Edited by MATT☀️
  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
3 minutes ago, MATT☀️ said:

Slight difference between UKMO and GFS at 144hrs..namely the GFS as that low pressure slightly further NW over Iceland.. Pressure building to the South, and we perhaps become very warm at least for a time. 

Looks like we could be pushing our first 30C by mid to later next week. 

gfs-0-144 (1).png

UW144-21.gif

gfs-1-156.png

gfs-1-180.png

It's looking good, Matt... But, waiting for that Azores ridge to split was like watching an old-time movie of an amoeba going through its reproduction phase!:shok:

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

But it gets there. Eventually!:oldlaugh:

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

Wednesday and Thursday showing 29c on the 12z GFS. Looks like peak of any heat will be around midweek onwards, for 2/3 days. Highest temps in the SE.

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
2 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Wednesday and Thursday showing 29c on the 12z GFS. Looks like peak of any heat will be around midweek onwards, for 2/3 days. Highest temps in the SE.

certainly not unusual, plumes/hot spikes always seem to arrive Tues, break down Thurs

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
39 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Looks like a traditional NW/SE split.

Wet and miserable in the NW, very warm in the SE.

Yes , this sounds a reasonable stab mid term, the dividing line is of interest but NW Scotland, NI, Cumbria will likely struggle.

Either way,the further SE ,the better for warmer drier weather.

 

Edited by northwestsnow
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
11 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Yes , this sounds a reasonable stab mid term, the dividing line is of interest but NW Scotland, NI, Cumbria will likely struggle.

Either way,the further SE ,the better for warmer drier weather.

 

Indeed, although the 06Z run was better for areas further north- small adjustments could mean that areas further north also join the party. Interesting to see that the GFS chart for Wednesday is showing 27C for Manchester yet only 18 or 19C for Cumbria. An example of the Manchester area being just far enough south and east to benefit from this sort of setup while other areas of NW England often miss out.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Promisingly the GFS 12Z Ops run only has two of its ensembles blowing the heat away more quickly so maybe something a little more optimistic. However with low pressure still so close by plenty to be cautious about as well.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Nr. Tunbridge Wells (150m/450ft asl)
  • Location: Nr. Tunbridge Wells (150m/450ft asl)

Puzzled at all the doom around here today, and all the talk of the warm up being pushed back. Already looks pretty fine in the south East by this weekend (the South East which is, by the way, home to 25% of the population, while the south Midlands and below contains half the total UK population - so reasonable to respond to that without endless caveats), and frankly the rest of this current week should see plenty of sun and warmth.

GFS 12z looks outstanding throughout. UKMO shows a slightly more pronounced this weekend but otherwise indicates the same general trend and a build of high pressure. ECM 12z so far looking promising. 

 

What's the problem here?

  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...