Model Output Discussion - Into Summer 2020.

[mb018538]

ECM tracks the mean almost to the letter today, so should be a good representation. Better in the SE - warming up and settling down for a time around Tuesday to Friday, before probably turning more unsettled through the weekend. Now to get the finer details of possibly how warm. First 30c of the year?

[Guest]

1 minute ago, Jim Halpert said:

Unfortunate for you but not representative for large parts of the country. Here we've had temperatures 3-4C above average each day for a good while now - certainly a warm spell. I appreciate we're both talking IMBY here but as you imply a widespread area has seen above average temps for a number of days  I'd call that a warm spell but I appreciate we have our own parameters.

I guess the situation is unusual, south west below average, London average then moving north west a few degrees above but really for most places south of Brum low 20's in mid June shouldn't be considered a warm spell. Maybe for Sheffield, Manchester etc yes I'll concede that. 

[Frosty.]

Well this from the ECM 0z operational is even hotter than yesterday’s 0z if we are comparing like for like!!..and yesterday’s raw data indicated 31c 88f..I think this would now hit the low 90’s F briefly for the SE..depending on sunshine amounts of course!!!

Edited June 17, 2020 by JON SNOW

[weathermadbarnsleylad]

1 hour ago, Scorcher said:

Negative hyperbole again this morning, it happens every time before any kind of warm spell or improvement in here.

The number of times we saw this in May was unbelievable, despite it ending up the sunniest month on record- people were generally very negative about the model output.

I don't understand why such knowledgeable people get so caught up focusing on the variations between runs? Even the ensembles are subject to massive changes from day to day.

The fact is that things are far from clear even 3 or 4 days ahead at the moment, so negativity about a warm spell that hasn't even happened yet is futile.

It must be so confusing for people new to the models coming in and reading this thread.

People just need to chill. It will have all changed by this evening. 

[ChannelThunder]

1 hour ago, JON SNOW said:

Well this from the ECM 0z operational is even hotter than yesterday’s 0z if we are comparing like for like!!..and yesterday’s raw data indicated 31c 88f..I think this would now hit the low 90’s F briefly for the SE..depending on sunshine amounts of course!!!

Hopefully that would go 'bang' in the night for the storm-starved south!

[Djdazzle]

38 minutes ago, Lance M said:

Hopefully that would go 'bang' in the night for the storm-starved south!

A few storms kicked off yesterday in the south, but there may be a few more today as I can already see some tall cumulus.

Stronger ridge on the GFS 6z at T120.

 

[Methuselah]

Yep, Day 5 looks like being dry, sunny and quite a bit fresher...If there's one thing I cannae abide, it's horrible humidity levels...

    

[I remember Atlantic 252]

2 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

Yep, Day 5 looks like being dry, sunny and quite a bit fresher...If there's one thing I cannae abide, it's horrible humidity levels...

    

much better! end of this vile sea mist, need rid of easterly breezes

[Djdazzle]

So GFS 6z steps back to a more settled run with stronger high pressure. Could turn thundery later as the LP to the west gets quite close.

[Methuselah]

Day 9's looking great: 16C T850s and a heat low... a very encouraging potential scenario:

    

[MATTWOLVES 3]

My take on the 6Z run so far.. Showers and sunny spells for the next few days, Low Pressure anchoring to the NW by Friday, this bringing some wet conditions further NW, but with a band of rain spreading SE later on Saturday and perhaps clearing by Sunday. The South should see decent conditions this weekend inbetween that weather system. Early next week looks good away from the NW with plenty of fine conditions and temps becoming very warm by midweek.. The NW will continue to have much more mixed and cooler conditions for much of this period. It stays warm towards next weekend... But hey presto it looks like we may have troughs in the mix, and not the kind a pig would eat from.. So it's basically rinse and repeat... Warm sunny spells and heavy/thundery showers... 

There you have it... I need a ly down... That's really taken it out of me..

Edited June 17, 2020 by MATT☀️

[Scorcher]

2 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

So GFS 6z steps back to a more settled run with stronger high pressure. Could turn thundery later as the LP to the west gets quite close.

Yes a fantastic run- I'm not getting too excited as it is just one run, but interesting how no one is commenting on this run. I'm sure if it was a procession of lows being shown, people would be commenting on it straight away.

The consensus seems to be that there's a good chance of a hot spell around midweek. How long this lasts is still open to question. The 06z run shows that it's by no means decided that this is going to be a very brief affair, with the heat actually intensifying towards next weekend.

-

[Djdazzle]

3 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

Yes a fantastic run- I'm not getting too excited as it is just one run, but interesting how no one is commenting on this run. I'm sure if it was a procession of lows being shown, people would be commenting on it straight away.

The consensus seems to be that there's a good chance of a hot spell around midweek. How long this lasts is still open to question. The 06z run shows that it's by no means decided that this is going to be a very brief affair, with the heat actually intensifying towards next weekend.

-

Let's see if it's repeated on the 12z suite. But I agree, it's funny how certain people are very selective with when they post!

[weathermadbarnsleylad]

I refer to my earlier post. It will Change by this evening lol. 

[Singularity]

I see ECM has decided to be the spanner model, conjuring up a vigorous secondary low on D6 that keeps the ridge profile across W. Europe flatter, preventing much of a hot spell (except perhaps in the far southeast).

The broad trough to our west looks to have a strong circulation with it, so the shape of that will be crucial.

 

Notice how the 06z on the right has a bit more elongation in the S-N directions rather than SW-NE directions.

A vigorous secondary low will encourage the SW-NE orientation that we don't want. In a multi-model ensemble, it seems ECM & EPS would be at the most SW-NE end of the 00z spread.

A big uncertainty factor is how soon, if at all, further disturbances start moving into the trough from the west... and then, in what position relative to it? There are various scenarios here, such as a low swinging around the south side of the trough (e.g. GFS 06z days 8-10) or one causing the trough to retrograde as it merges with it.

I find it a bit hard to believe that the trough will go the whole working week without anything interacting with it from the west, such as the 00z ECM shows (both operational & parallel versions). Then again, this is 2020 we're talking about...! 

[Leo97t]

I'll admit that the GEFS 06z mean is fantastic at day 5-10 but we've seen a very good GEFS mean unsupported by the ECM eventually collapse, I think this evening's ECM is crucial

[White Dan]

10 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

Yes a fantastic run- I'm not getting too excited as it is just one run, but interesting how no one is commenting on this run. I'm sure if it was a procession of lows being shown, people would be commenting on it straight away.

The consensus seems to be that there's a good chance of a hot spell around midweek. How long this lasts is still open to question. The 06z run shows that it's by no means decided that this is going to be a very brief affair, with the heat actually intensifying towards next weekend.

-

The ECM is the daddy mate and it's ensembles back it up 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

1 minute ago, White Dan said:

The ECM is the daddy mate and it's ensembles back it up 

Its the Daddy?? Its been showing the best solutions of all the models the last few days up until now! Its struggling like all the models are right now... Make know mistake about it. 

[CasMan]

I never post on here as i am not knowledgeable enough but i have followed this thread year in year out for over 15 years, and the amount of pessimism in here is unreal even when good weather is around, i'm sure some people just get off on trolling these pages, as mentioned above certain posters will not comment on this run as its much better than the 0z.  We know who they are, maybe its a trait of weather enthusiasts in the uk, always waiting for it to go wrong as it normally does.  I am all for different viewpoints but some people really need to take a look at themselves.  Back under my stone now lol.

[mb018538]

ECM this morning is 70/30 in favour of the slightly flatter outcome winning, which would be much more SE concentrated. The smaller cluster is hotter and covers more of the UK.

By day 10/11 the Atlantic low has moved in turning it cooler.

[Djdazzle]

Just now, MATT said:

Its the Daddy?? Its been showing the best solutions of all the models the last few days up until now! Its struggling like all the models are right now... Make know mistake about it. 

I wouldn't even reply!

[mb018538]

30c plus three days in a row on the 6z run, peaking with this 32c on Friday. Certainly into the furnace if that comes off!  

[White Dan]

1 minute ago, CasMan said:

I never post on here as i am not knowledgeable enough but i have followed this thread year in year out for over 15 years, and the amount of pessimism in here is unreal even when good weather is around, i'm sure some people just get off on trolling these pages, as mentioned above certain posters will not comment on this run as its much better than the 0z.  We know who they are, maybe its a trait of weather enthusiasts in the uk, always waiting for it to go wrong as it normally does.  I am all for different viewpoints but some people really need to take a look at themselves.  Back under my stone now lol.

That's cos we are used to seeing it go wrong mate , follow the worse solution and you won't go far wrong 

[StormChaseUK]

2 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

30c plus three days in a row on the 6z run, peaking with this 32c on Friday. Certainly into the furnace if that comes off!  

Yes certainly right time of year to peak those temps, hopefully the low stays west

[CasMan]

Just now, White Dan said:

That's cos we are used to seeing it go wrong mate , follow the worse solution and you won't go far wrong 

This is exactly my point, that is not always the case and makes no sense to follow that logic i just do not understand why so many people like yourself appear to want it to fail so you can say i told you so...