Model Output Discussion - Into Summer 2020.

[swfc]

2 minutes ago, Leo97t said:

I really am not seeing Greenland heights?

A brief 1020mb high doesn't constitute northern blocking its gone by the end of the ru

n

I think the positioning of the Atlantic high will deliver a more orientated flow from the north west.i can't see anything robust pressure wise coming from the Azores area etc.transient ridging yes but all subject to change 

[Captain Shortwave]

So amplified ridge to the east and one in the western Atlantic with a trough which is a little too close for comfort for the U.K. in the middle.

I would be surprised to see such a setup persist for that long, either the trough weaken and flatten out with westerlies returning or the trough will elongate and allow the ridge to the east to gain more of a foothold with a potential cut off low in the usual hot weather bringing position.

The former is probably favoured but this is out of the ten day timescale at the moment.

[northwestsnow]

2 minutes ago, White Dan said:

Well done to Mushy man he said yesterday the unsettled weather would soon be back 

LOL...

It hasnt happened yet.

Bit premature for congratulations.

Perhaps Mushy will be right.He's a solid member of the community who posts his thoughts with charts and his opinions are certainly  respected by me for one.

The mean might reveal more but i'm inclined to think something has changed overnight, hopefully its just the pessimist in me , but i wonder if the models are suddenly thinking of Greenland heights, never a good thing if you want a warm pattern and or the jet to the north of the UK.

 

[Guest]

3 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

ECM has 30c on Thursday. Also 28c Wednesday, but its looking more likely this will be a 2 day job now. I said yesterday it had been pushed back, and it has again today. A couple of days ago Saturday was shown as the transition day, with Sunday the first real settled day (see below)

Sunday now looks windy, Monday a bit better....but the more settled stuff doesnt arrive til Tuesday/Wednesday, and is gone again by the weekend. In some places it might not even arrive!

 

Yep, it’s never got closer than day 6/7. I seen this before and It would not surprise me if there is no warm up at all and everything just slides into the continent. It’s the summer equivalent of a winter northerly  modelled a week out that ends up with a toppler! 

[Scorcher]

Negative hyperbole again this morning, it happens every time before any kind of warm spell or improvement in here.

The number of times we saw this in May was unbelievable, despite it ending up the sunniest month on record- people were generally very negative about the model output.

I don't understand why such knowledgeable people get so caught up focusing on the variations between runs? Even the ensembles are subject to massive changes from day to day.

The fact is that things are far from clear even 3 or 4 days ahead at the moment, so negativity about a warm spell that hasn't even happened yet is futile.

It must be so confusing for people new to the models coming in and reading this thread.

[White Dan]

1 minute ago, Scorcher said:

Negative hyperbole again this morning, it happens every time before any kind of warm spell or improvement in here.

The number of times we saw this in May was unbelievable, despite it ending up the sunniest month on record- people were generally very negative about the model output.

I don't understand why such knowledgeable people get so caught up focusing on the variations between runs? Even the ensembles are subject to massive changes from day to day.

The fact is that things are far from clear even 3 or 4 days ahead at the moment, so negativity about a warm spell that hasn't even happened yet is futile.

It must be so confusing for people new to the models coming in and reading this thread.

People are commenting on what they see mate . Mushy called this yesterday and all the models now agree 

[Djdazzle]

Just now, Scorcher said:

Negative hyperbole again this morning, it happens every time before any kind of warm spell or improvement in here.

The number of times we saw this in May was unbelievable, despite it ending up the sunniest month on record- people were generally very negative about the model output.

I don't understand why such knowledgeable people get so caught up focusing on the variations between runs? Even the ensembles are subject to massive changes from day to day.

The fact is that things are far from clear even 3 or 4 days ahead at the moment, so negativity about a warm spell that hasn't even happened yet is futile.

It must be so confusing for people new to the models coming in and reading this thread.

Agreed. It weakens the quality of the discussion.

[Scorcher]

5 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

The mean might reveal more but i'm inclined to think something has changed overnight, hopefully its just the pessimist in me , but i wonder if the models are suddenly thinking of Greenland heights, never a good thing if you want a warm pattern and or the jet to the north of the UK.

 

Interested to know which charts show a Greenland High? I can't see any evidence of this personally.

[Djdazzle]

Just now, White Dan said:

People are commenting on what they see mate . Mushy called this yesterday and all the models now agree 

No you didn’t. You commented on something that hasn’t even happened. How can you congratulate someone on an event that hasn’t happened yet? Wait for the 12z runs which could correct the other way.

[White Dan]

2 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

No you didn’t. You commented on something that hasn’t even happened. How can you congratulate someone on an event that hasn’t happened yet? Wait for the 12z runs which could correct the other way.

When it goes to dung mate it doesn't revert back !

[Djdazzle]

Just now, White Dan said:

When it goes to dung mate it doesn't revert back !

Which is also wrong - but there you go! How many times have we seen breakdowns pushed back and back?

 

[northwestsnow]

2 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

Interested to know which charts show a Greenland High? I can't see any evidence of this personally.

There is 1015 mb highlighted by the yellows and oranges , this assists in trapping the low and forces the jet back south.

Thats my interpretation of EC 00Z ...

 

 

[Guest]

6 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

Negative hyperbole again this morning, it happens every time before any kind of warm spell or improvement in here.

The number of times we saw this in May was unbelievable, despite it ending up the sunniest month on record- people were generally very negative about the model output.

I don't understand why such knowledgeable people get so caught up focusing on the variations between runs? Even the ensembles are subject to massive changes from day to day.

The fact is that things are far from clear even 3 or 4 days ahead at the moment, so negativity about a warm spell that hasn't even happened yet is futile.

It must be so confusing for people new to the models coming in and reading this thread.

Disagree, any warm spell has yet to get within 6 or 7days, as someone said it was looking like it would start this Saturday three days ago, we are now into the middle of next week and anything showing more than a day or twos warmth has generally been an outlier. 

[swfc]

4 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

Negative hyperbole again this morning, it happens every time before any kind of warm spell or improvement in here.

The number of times we saw this in May was unbelievable, despite it ending up the sunniest month on record- people were generally very negative about the model output.

I don't understand why such knowledgeable people get so caught up focusing on the variations between runs? Even the ensembles are subject to massive changes from day to day.

The fact is that things are far from clear even 3 or 4 days ahead at the moment, so negativity about a warm spell that hasn't even happened yet is futile.

It must be so confusing for people new to the models coming in and reading this thread.

Isn't the variation between runs part of the discussion ?I guess everyone could save one run and come back in a week and see if it was close.id agree the models are volatile but only an attempt to show what the weather mighnt do .also it's only a light hearted and limited attempt by most on here at what could happen

[Scorcher]

6 minutes ago, White Dan said:

People are commenting on what they see mate . Mushy called this yesterday and all the models now agree 

Can you quote Mushy please then? Pretty sure he has been commenting on the anomaly charts which give a general overview rather than a huge amount of detail- they give a solid idea of the direction of travel.

I believe those charts have been indicating a flow from the SW with a trough to our west/north west and high pressure over Scandinavia- hardly a disastrous scenario for the UK.

So how what he has said is backing up all the negativity this morning I don't quite know.

[Scorcher]

5 minutes ago, swfc said:

Isn't the variation between runs part of the discussion ?I guess everyone could save one run and come back in a week and see if it was close.id agree the models are volatile but only an attempt to show what the weather mighnt do .also it's only a light hearted and limited attempt by most on here at what could happen

Of course it's all about the discussion of the variations, but it would be nice if it could be a bit less emotional. It really isn't lighthearted in here most of the time unfortunately.

There is another thread where people can moan to their heart's content.

[White Dan]

2 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

Can you quote Mushy please then? Pretty sure he has been commenting on the anomaly charts which give a general overview rather than a huge amount of detail- they give a solid idea of the direction of travel.

I believe those charts have been indicating a flow from the SW with a trough to our west/north west and high pressure over Scandinavia- hardly a disastrous scenario for the UK.

So how what he has said is backing up all the negativity this morning I don't quite know.

What he said mate was no settled spell ...the noaa charts didn't back up high pressure staying over the UK - now the models are backing him up .

[I remember Atlantic 252]

3 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

Can you quote Mushy please then? Pretty sure he has been commenting on the anomaly charts which give a general overview rather than a huge amount of detail- they give a solid idea of the direction of travel.

I believe those charts have been indicating a flow from the SW with a trough to our west/north west and high pressure over Scandinavia- hardly a disastrous scenario for the UK.

So how what he has said is backing up all the negativity this morning I don't quite know.

SW breeze at last, aye hardly disastrous, may finally see a sunny start here, after 5 days in a row of north sea filth

[swfc]

4 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

Of course it's all about the discussion of the variations, but it would be nice if it could be a bit less emotional. It really isn't lighthearted in here most of the time unfortunately.

There is another thread where people can moan to their heart's content.

Well if it invokes such dramatics I suggest folk find another hobby,it's only weather! Anyway if today's output so far varifies then the south east looks to be in with a limited spell of decent temps and sunshine.

[Guest]

People talking about a warm spell being pushed back are forgetting we're currently in a warm spell  

[Methuselah]

26 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Disagree, any warm spell has yet to get within 6 or 7days, as someone said it was looking like it would start this Saturday three days ago, we are now into the middle of next week and anything showing more than a day or twos warmth has generally been an outlier. 

Not to mention the 'warm spell' we are currently in, of course...5-days' long and counting...?

Darn it! @Jim Halpert beat me too it!

Edited June 17, 2020 by General Cluster

[Guest]

8 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

Not to mention the 'warm spell' we are currently in, of course...5-days' long and counting...?

What warm spell, it's been above 20C for a couple of hours in the last week. Yes the belt from London to the northwest has seen temps of 20-24 generally with the odd 25C but thats hardly warm for the middle of the June is it, might be worth calling out a month ago.  

Edited June 17, 2020 by Guest

[Guest]

2 minutes ago, Alderc said:

What warm spell, it's been above 20C for a couple of hours in the last week. Yes the belt from London to the northwest has seen temps of 20-24 generally with the odd 25C but thats hardly warm for the middle of the June if it, might be worth calling out a month ago.  

Unfortunate for you but not representative for large parts of the country. Here we've had temperatures 3-4C above average each day for a good while now - certainly a warm spell. I appreciate we're both talking IMBY here but as you imply a widespread area has seen above average temps for a number of days  I'd call that a warm spell but I appreciate we have our own parameters.

[Team Jo]

Not enjoying the sniping pre 9am folks. Just sipping my coffee and some posts are going to be moved to moans/ramps.

Please be courteous and mindful of each other.

[Methuselah]

Just now, Jim Halpert said:

Unfortunate for you but not representative for large parts of the country. Here we've had temperatures 3-4C above average each day for a good while now - certainly a warm spell. I appreciate we're both talking IMBY here but as you imply a widespread area has seen above average temps for a number of days  I'd call that a warm spell but I appreciate we have our own parameters.

And it's been backed-up by the NW daily temperature data: almost all the places quoted having seen maxes between 23-25C...Hardly what I'd call 'cool'...