Model Output Discussion - Into Summer 2020.

[Djdazzle]

2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Going to get a bit hot, humid and thundery if this happens, GFS. T240:

Proper heat pump going there...

Cut off trough in the Atlantic. All the right ingredients for a proper heatwave.

This is GFS though .  .

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

Nice improvements on the 18z. ECM will be gettin down onit in the morning you mark my words!! 

[Mike Poole]

Well, shiver me timbers, it is there on JMA as well, T264:

[snowray]

5 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Well, shiver me timbers, it is there on JMA as well, T264:

You just beat me to it...

[weathermadbarnsleylad]

I thought the last couple of days models were over pushing the Atlantic in. I now think tomorrow's models will firm up on the warm/spell next week. Slowly going back to what they saw earlier this week. Im pretty confident now and somewhere below Birmingham will hit 30oC at some point next week. 

[weathermadbarnsleylad]

9 minutes ago, 38.7°C said:

Nice improvements on the 18z. ECM will be gettin down onit in the morning you mark my words!! 

Yes that's defo my thoughts too. 

[weathermadbarnsleylad]

The 18z ens are gonna be very good I reckon after this run. Op will be in the top 5 but I'm punting not an outlier. 

[snowray]

18z mean showing a decent improvement when compared to the 12z run.

 

 

[northwestsnow]

Not sure what to make of ukmo 144...

Hopefully the high pushes that horrid low out of the way but im not convinced.(not keen on the Greeny blocking).

Squeaky bum time?

 

Edited June 17, 2020 by northwestsnow

[Djdazzle]

Think it will be fine, especially further south and east.

[Guest]

Missed out on last nights massive 18z outlier fun which would have been ideal however on the flip side this mornings UKMO run is very precarious, in fact that’s being too generous it’s a poor run with low pressure very close to the U.K. and high not really building at all, basically for the last two days now 144 has been the point there things look like they are going to improve and we aren’t getting any close. GFS is much better and has been consistent with pulling something in much warmer however again doesn’t seem to get any closer than day six. 

[Frosty.]

Just had a peek at 1st July on the Gfs 0z operational and it’s not really what I was hoping for, very cool and unsettled and there is some ensemble support for it but looking at the mean it shows there are some better solutions in the mix...it’s very unreliable timeframe of course but I was just curious about the start of July.

[Djdazzle]

2 minutes ago, JON SNOW said:

Just had a peek at 1st July on the Gfs 0z operational and it’s not really what I was hoping for, very cool and unsettled and there is some ensemble support for it but looking at the mean it shows there are some better solutions in the mix...it’s very unreliable timeframe of course but I was just curious about the start of July.

Come on, 2 weeks away!

[Djdazzle]

What is it with the 0z runs being more unsettled?

[Guest]

I know people are going to disagree but the ECM is poor only offering the briefest of warmups for the extreme south east with building barely any ridge at all before further low pressure makes inroads into the  U.K. from the north west. Hopefully an cool outlier but the certainly appears to be a trend away  from a more robust ridge building into next week from ECM. Given the UKMO output you have to say GFS is once again the over optimistic output. 

[swfc]

2 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

Not sure what to make of ukmo 144...

Hopefully the high pushes that horrid low out of the way but im not convinced.(not keen on the Greeny blocking).

Squeaky bum time?

 

I think your reference to the blocking to the north is and will be relevent in keeping any real push from the Azores area pretty limited going forward.also the Atlantic seems to be keeping a semi permanent high in position.any areas of low pressure however insipid have to go somewhere ! Also the heights towards scan etc are another factor imo.

Edited June 17, 2020 by swfc

[Guest]

2 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

What is it with the 0z runs being more unsettled?

What is it with everything being so inconsistent. Last summer the big trends ie the big heatwaves and big unsettled periods were all picked up way in advance, over ten days out in the cases of the June and July heatwaves. I guess it there’s no strong signal things chop and change! 

[northwestsnow]

4 minutes ago, swfc said:

I think your reference to the blocking to the north is and will be relevent in keeping any real push from the Azores area pretty limited going forward.any areas of low pressure however insipid have to go somewhere ! Also the heights towards scan etc are another factor imo.

Unfortunately EC has followed suite with Greenland heights this morning.

Certainly a last min spanner in the works which will hinder any ridging from the Azores ..

 

Edited June 17, 2020 by northwestsnow

[Djdazzle]

Just now, Alderc said:

What is it with everything being so inconsistent. Last summer the big trends ie the big heatwaves and big unsettled periods were all picked up way in advance, over ten days out in the cases of the June and July heatwaves. I guess it there’s no strong signal things chop and change! 

Maybe, but the 0z runs are nearly always more progressive than the 12z ones. Somebody once tried to explain why, but I’ve no idea what the science behind it is!

[White Dan]

Well done to Mushy man he said yesterday the unsettled weather would soon be back 

[Djdazzle]

1 minute ago, White Dan said:

Well done to Mushy man he said yesterday the unsettled weather would soon be back 

What? Ridiculous post.

[Leo97t]

2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Unfortunately EC has followed suite with Greenland heights this morning.

Certainly a last min spanner in the works which will certainly hinder any ridging from the Azores ..

I really am not seeing Greenland heights?

A brief 1020mb high doesn't constitute northern blocking its gone by the end of the ru

n

[Methuselah]

Just the NWPs reaching the limits of the 'envelope', I suspect?

Not that the GFS 00Z advertises anything particularly dire anyhow; and, allowing for the GFS's penchant for undercooking daily maxes, temps look like staying (if anything) on the warm side, throughout:

    

    

    

    

And, IMO, there's far too much scatter, past June 25, for basing any kind of forecast, on the 00Z operational? And, judging from the T850s, those 2m temps are, as usual, c. 3C too low...?

    

    

Nothing suggestive of any major Greenland block, on the NH profiles, either:

    

    

 

Edited June 17, 2020 by General Cluster

[mb018538]

ECM has 30c on Thursday. Also 28c Wednesday, but its looking more likely this will be a 2 day job now. I said yesterday it had been pushed back, and it has again today. A couple of days ago Saturday was shown as the transition day, with Sunday the first real settled day (see below)

Sunday now looks windy, Monday a bit better....but the more settled stuff doesnt arrive til Tuesday/Wednesday, and is gone again by the weekend. In some places it might not even arrive!

 

[White Dan]

1 minute ago, mb018538 said:

ECM has 30c on Thursday. Also 28c Wednesday, but its looking more likely this will be a 2 day job now. I said yesterday it had been pushed back, and it has again today. A couple of days ago Saturday was shown as the transition day, with Sunday the first real settled day (see below)

Sunday now looks windy, Monday a bit better....but the more settled stuff doesnt arrive til Tuesday/Wednesday, and is gone again by the weekend. In some places it might not even arrive!

 

Yep for areas away from the SE it's unsettled and cool especially this weekend and then again by late next week