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Model Output Discussion - Into Summer 2020.

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
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Posted (edited)

GFS 12Z is looking preety good at Day 7:

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

Could be about to set us up for a... stonker!:clapping::yahoo:Yee Haw!

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

image.png.0533e40cec5ff88b74a1d09d529932f3.png

Edited by General Cluster
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Djdazzle Veteran

Djdazzle

Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
Posted
Just now, Leo97t said:

All I'm saying is this is still in FI in my opinion. People should not be expecting a heatwave but rather a couple warmer days in the SE - setups like this always correct east and when you get a heatwave appearing on models you normally get perfect synoptic simulated before some small downgrades. I hope I am wrong but I just don't see it yet confidently

I get that but all models are showing the same basic pattern ie. trough to NW and HP to the SE. There will be slight overall differences with the actual positioning.

I don’t agree that LP is always corrected further east though - it often happens the other way round.

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mb018538 Maestro

mb018538

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
Posted

Not much talk about the 12z runs...

GFS isn’t anything special. A couple of warmer days in the SE before it turns unsettled again. UKMO starts to get there by Monday. GEM builds the high more strongly. A lot of divergence as you’d expect!

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snowray Veteran

snowray

Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
Posted (edited)

I'm just hoping that the plumes aren't all put back and delayed a bit like our phantom Scandi high's in winter that make regular appearances in the models but never actually turns up! 

Nice heat spike there on the London ens, some member's wanting to extend the warm spell somewhat, op and control at the coolest end of the ens suite. 

Now let's see what the ecm comes up with.

 

graphe_ens3.thumb.gif.c3d1f9b3e122b2333b04f5a3637ca066.gif:oldgood:

Edited by snowray
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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
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Posted

I think we're on the cusp of experiencing some particularly fascinating synoptics, during the coming weeks: heat, rain, sunshine, thunderstorms?

Not only do @Tamara's posts suggest the possibility of probably(?) short-lived thundery plumes coming from the South, the charts posted by @John Holmes and @mushymanrob don't disallow them: isn't wildly fluctuating weather the mainstay of us enthusiasts... during both summer and winter?:yahoo:

Yes, the models keep threatening an Atlantic takeover -- but, don't they always do that? So, go with the flow... let's take whatever Mother Natures throws at us?

PS: If only it'd bloody well snow, in winter!

 

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mb018538 Maestro

mb018538

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
Posted

Pretty lame ecm tonight at day 7 when compared to the 00z - warmer air gone:

 73ECC858-63E3-437B-8682-D6A4959A77C4.thumb.png.83a406269abceedf7de71fd8689e48bd.pngC3F150C3-7471-4A47-A055-6962ADBEED49.thumb.png.959e646b6c96fec3c13e6f151b5e7b2d.png

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northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted

EC looks OK ...

Brief skirmish with the Atlantic and high pressure building back in ...

Atlantic quite lively so expecting NW Britain to be exposed from time to time.

Further south looking good though.

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mb018538 Maestro

mb018538

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

ECM is a really good run further south. Mid to high 20s. Not quite as good as the 00z but it was never going to be.

Raw data had 30c in the SE on Wednesday - 12z has 22c instead. Much more westerly component than the 00z. All subject to change of course, just your usual run to run variation!

Edited by mb018538
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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
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Posted (edited)

Like others have said, ECM is looking a cracker, especially away from the NW.. some decent heat getting close to the south

Closer to home and we are being subject to some cracking storms here in the West Midlands.. That's what Summer is all about.. 

ECM1-168 (1).gif

ECM1-192 (1).gif

ECM0-192 (1).gif

tenor-1.gif

ECM1-216 (1).gif

ECM0-216 (1).gif

Edited by MATT☀️
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northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted
1 minute ago, mb018538 said:

Raw data had 30c in the SE on Wednesday - 12z has 22c instead. Much more westerly component than the 00z. All subject to change of course, just your usual run to run variation!

The heat will come on EC...

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snowray Veteran

snowray

Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
Posted

Gets there in the end though.

 

ECM1-216.gif

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Captain Shortwave Maestro

Captain Shortwave

Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough
Posted

Frustrating to see a longwave pattern that looks very promising get flattened thanks to a deep low developing in the Atlantic from this coming weekend. The ECM at day 10 will be hot though.

 

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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted

What an ending.. ☀️

ECM0-240 (1).gif

38ta.gif

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snowray Veteran

snowray

Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

Frustrating to see a longwave pattern that looks very promising get flattened thanks to a deep low developing in the Atlantic from this coming weekend. The ECM at day 10 will be hot though.

 

Here comes our first 30c of the summer after all.

 

 

 

ECM0-240.gif

Edited by snowray
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mb018538 Maestro

mb018538

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
Posted
1 minute ago, Captain Shortwave said:

Frustrating to see a longwave pattern that looks very promising get flattened thanks to a deep low developing in the Atlantic from this coming weekend. The ECM at day 10 will be hot though.

 

Day 10 tonight is the only ‘hot’ day on there . Shows 27c at 12pm, so would easily be a 30c day. Bit of a slow burner run that eventually gets there, my only worry is it keeps getting knocked back a day. Hopefully it firms up and starts pulling in.

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted
11 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Day 10 tonight is the only ‘hot’ day on there . Shows 27c at 12pm, so would easily be a 30c day. Bit of a slow burner run that eventually gets there, my only worry is it keeps getting knocked back a day. Hopefully it firms up and starts pulling in.

No worries, mb...If it gets pushed back to July, it'll be 36C!:oldlaugh:

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Fourty Point Three Degrees Seasoned

Fourty Point Three Degrees

Posted
  • Location: manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Summer
  • Location: manchester
Posted
15 minutes ago, MATT☀️ said:

What an ending.. ☀️

ECM0-240 (1).gif

38ta.gif

What an ending for those in Scotland that have to endure miserable rain and wind and uppers of 2 to 4c in high summer. Not the best of synoptics. 

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Djdazzle Veteran

Djdazzle

Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
Posted
2 minutes ago, 38.7°C said:

What an ending for those in Scotland that have to endure miserable rain and wind and uppers of 2 to 4c in high summer. Not the best of synoptics. 

No but it’s fairly typical in those setups.

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weathermadbarnsleylad Aficionado

weathermadbarnsleylad

Posted
  • Location: Kendray,Barnsley,God's county.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow freezing fog heatwave thunderstorm
  • Location: Kendray,Barnsley,God's county.
Posted

This nowhere near a done deal in my opinion. Roll on the 18z which I think will show build up of the ridge and warm/very warm weather quicker. Gefs ensemble look very very good to me. 

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weathermadbarnsleylad Aficionado

weathermadbarnsleylad

Posted
  • Location: Kendray,Barnsley,God's county.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow freezing fog heatwave thunderstorm
  • Location: Kendray,Barnsley,God's county.
Posted
Just now, weathermadbarnsleylad said:

This nowhere near a done deal in my opinion. Roll on the 18z which I think will show build up of the ridge and warm/very warm weather quicker. Gefs ensemble look very very good to me. 

Let's see what the ECM mean shows. 

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weathermadbarnsleylad Aficionado

weathermadbarnsleylad

Posted
  • Location: Kendray,Barnsley,God's county.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow freezing fog heatwave thunderstorm
  • Location: Kendray,Barnsley,God's county.
Posted

Just for fun. Cfs daily for 1st of July booooom lol

cfs-0-354.png

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