Model Output Discussion - Into Summer 2020.

[Man With Beard]

There's a sniff of a plume on the ECM ensembles tonight - not in the mean itself, but in the shape - diving trough to the west, encouraging a move of air not far from Iberia

 

[Mark wheeler]

Navgem not too shabby this evening . 144 hrs and 180 hrs .

 

[Man With Beard]

Looked through the ECM individual ensembles for my own curiousity - about 30% have a decent plume event around D9/D10 - about the same amount with a near miss into the continent. 30C certainly possible if it came off, and a few go a bit higher. One to watch, but quite a way off right now, of course.

[stodge]

Evening all

Just time for a quick glance through the 12Z output.

It does seem as though fans of settled weather have won a key battle with the first attempt by the LP to the NW to move SE through the British Isles blocked by the Azores ridge moving strongly NE.

The problem is the ridge is then split apart with one part of the HP cell heading NE into Scandinavia and that allows the shallow trough over Europe and the main trough to the NW to join forces and break the settled spell over the UK but that's at T+240 and as we know it's an eternity away.

As the current showery LP fills up during the week we have a brief col with very light winds before the Azores HP comes in over the coming weekend and ushers in 3-4 days of fine settled conditions - pleasantly warm but not thankfully too hot.

[Djdazzle]

ECM would no doubt give us the first 30C of the year. Maybe for once the 0z runs will back up the 12z’s!

If we could get a favourable alignment, then 32C may be possible, although I think we may have to wait a few weeks to surpass that.

[damianslaw]

Models show the slow moving trough / low pressure feature filling by the weekend, its a very slow affair though, and signs of frontal activity in the south on Thursday. The ridge to the NE holds firm, and the azores high looks like nosing in from the SW, building into the UK. Atlantic trough then held out to our west, a familiar summer pattern. I remain very cautious about calling a return to sustained settled conditions next week though, the European trough the troublemaker - doesn't look like going anywhere fast, split high could be the outcome, trough once again making a beeline for the UK.

[Captain Shortwave]

2 hours ago, Man With Beard said:

There's a sniff of a plume on the ECM ensembles tonight - not in the mean itself, but in the shape - diving trough to the west, encouraging a move of air not far from Iberia

 

GFS about to nail it on this plume idea...

   
 

Just for fun but we need to keep an eye out for this evolution. The GFS easily reaching the low thirties by day 10 here.

[SMU]

Interesting Day 10 Airmass on the 18z...

[Man With Beard]

11 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Interesting Day 10 Airmass on the 18z...

Roasting! 

Tasty clusters on the ECM ensembles tonight, D10, both of those look hot, possible straight line flow up from the south

Edited June 15, 2020 by Man With Beard

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

Surely if this run came off it would be a record breaker for biggest temperature difference in two days.  33C in London one day, then the following day it struggles to reach mid teens. 

[Josh Rubio]

1 hour ago, 38.7°C said:

Surely if this run came off it would be a record breaker for biggest temperature difference in two days.  33C in London one day, then the following day it struggles to reach mid teens. 

Would this result in a big thunderstorm potential given the massive differences in temperatures, providing there’s low pressure nearby?

[Zak M]

8 minutes ago, Josh Rubio said:

Would this result in a big thunderstorm potential given the massive differences in temperatures, providing there’s low pressure nearby?

Yep!

On day 9 it's showing a ridiculously large cluster of storms affecting N. Ireland and W England, Wales and Scotland.

On day 10 it's showing what looks like SB storms take charge for most of the UK

Look at this d10 CAPE chart!! 

Edited June 16, 2020 by Zak M

[Zak M]

Speaking of the 18z GFS - 

It's a massive outlier!!

   

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

34 minutes ago, Josh Rubio said:

Would this result in a big thunderstorm potential given the massive differences in temperatures, providing there’s low pressure nearby?

It would also result in one of the most thundery Junes i've experienced  

[mb018538]

A selection of models at 144 this morning shows this is still up in the air. UKMO best.

[Djdazzle]

It still looks like the Azores high will make a push further along each run though. A much better pattern than what we had a week ago!

[Methuselah]

Well, if it's heat & storms you're after, the GFS 00Z for Day 8 looks mighty 'interesting'!

    

Might even be on for an all-nighter?

The GFS op is a bit of an outlier, at its hottest point, however:                              

  

Mmmm?

[mb018538]

ECM also looks ok at 144:

The high pressure moving in, but it’s being slightly pushed back day on day. It looked like it would move in on Sunday:

 

But this now looks a bit more troughy:

[Guest]

The GFS offers zero consensus on the weather through the later part of the weekend. The Ops run and ten ensemble members bring the Low Pressure through the weekend, 11 ensemble members build the ridge enough to deflect it north. ECM fortunately appears to be siding with UKMO but its still not until day 7 things really settle down and probably 8 or 9 until they really start to warm up. Low Pressure whatever the scenario now looks like having enough influence to affect the weekend for more than just the north west, while no washout fronts and plenty of cloud look like making it right across the UK. In short still only tentative signs of a decent warm spell setting up in a reasonable timeframe. 

[mb018538]

 

Very warm/hot again (raw data has 30c plus), but with the UK sat right on the boundary of air masses, difficult to be confident at this range! A shift east of a few hundred miles could wreck everything. See what the ensembles make of it all?

[Guest]

9 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

 

Very warm/hot again (raw data has 30c plus), but with the UK sat right on the boundary of air masses, difficult to be confident at this range! A shift east of a few hundred miles could wreck everything. See what the ensembles make of it all?

Looks a standard couple of warm/hot days for the south east, chance of a localised 30C, places like Manchester etc never really get more than 21-22C for a day or so, lol they are probably better of in the current airmass. Would probably be accompanied by the usual Kent clipper. The pattern needs to back west significantly as we all know these set-ups are likely to 'correct' east.

[Paul_1978]

13 hours ago, MATT said:

This is by and large a splendid run.. @CreweCold you appear to not like the warmth and sun.. Your not a vampire are ya mate..

We are getting plenty of warmth and sun now at 20-22C. Crewe is saying "keep your 30C" which I am sure many of us agree with - too hot for most...... the current weather of 22C is perfectly adequate for 99% of the population. 

Looking at the models this morning, the LP to the west looks to be a smidgen closer to the UK on Sat/Sun that previously modelled - next Tuesday (a week away yet!) has the potential to be a very warm, perhaps hot day. Lots of water to flow under the bridge before then!

[mb018538]

ECM mean is fairly good for a few days of higher pressure/warmth etc. Best conditions in the SE before the Atlantic likely pushes through towards the end of next week. All of this a long way off at present.

[northwestsnow]

The good news from euro models this morning is little sign of the Atlantic getting in and established across our shores.

The not so good news is the signal to build blocking to our north west,when the green circle is present (the low incoming at 120 drifts north on euro)in the N Atlantic it will usually work its way back towards the UK with blocking in place over Greenland .

So, this is probably when the a bit of expert background input helps insofar as the likelihood of the unwelcome UK trough becoming established.

I would say the outlook is mixed,quite showery but also pleasant temps before a skirmish with the Atlantic at the weekend,smart money would then be on a 4 or 5 days of something more settled and warm ,moreso towards the South,after that,who knows, perhaps looking towards the background drivers for a bit of help.

 

[northwestsnow]

Probably worth noting there is a strong signal on the GEFS for high pressure to nudge in through the weekend, more pronounced across the SE where BBC raw has plenty of sunshine and getting warmer and warmer as we head through the weekend and up into the 80s through next week.