Model Output Discussion - Into Summer 2020.

[Methuselah]

GFS at T+264: the first 30C?

    

[Mike Poole]

GEM T210 fantastic run, and power to add:

 

[Djdazzle]

12z runs always seem better than the 0z!

[mb018538]

4 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

12z runs always seem better than the 0z!

It’s a well known fact NWP aren’t morning ‘people’

[johnholmes]

The quote from T about the 500 mb charts posted by mushy is rather amusing.

So trying to predict 6-10 maybe 14 days ahead, in very general terms is subject to error but her diagnostics are less so!

 

I will refrain from having a dig at her.

 

Why can she not just give her views on the data she uses for the time scales she predicts for and stop niggling at others?

 

An apology from jh to T

Sorry T you are quite right in your sticky to me, I should never have posted it, indeed I hit the wrong button after I had written it. I decided it would be unfair to post it and hit what I thought was the delete and then logged off. Only just logging back in.

Anyway I suspect we both know that be it your method at longer term or mine shorter term we both get it wrong at times.

Apologies, and yes I do read all your posts, even though my poor old brain gets a bit lost at times.

Edited June 14, 2020 by johnholmes

[Mike Poole]

8 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

GEM T210 fantastic run, and power to add:

 

And power did add, T240;

[Guest]

A more promising GFS 12Z run, however it does make you laugh at times and make question it's output. @ T234hrs in parts of the south it has dew points of 17C however the corresponding 2m temp is only 15C. 

[Guest]

lol less said about the GFS ensembles the better.....

 

 

[ICE COLD]

And there’s the 1000th op run outlier of the year . Cant believe how many there have been recently especially the GFS and that includes the  dodgy GEFS . Definitely won’t be following it in the winter . I can see it causing mayhem in here when winter arrives. 

[mb018538]

2 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

And there’s the 1000th op run outlier of the year . Cant believe how many there have been recently especially the GFS and that includes the  dodgy GEFS . Definitely won’t be following it in the winter . I can see it causing mayhem in here when winter arrives. 

Crazy outlier as you’d expect. Also some big ppn spikes there this week....looks like a fair amount of rain coming up this week, mainly from torrential showers and storms.

[Mike Poole]

ECM T144:

Not dissimilar to other runs this afternoon. Looks OK, let's see how it progresses...

[mb018538]

ECM looking reasonable at 144

[MATTWOLVES 3]

No complaints from me from ECM 168hrs..strong ridging into the South. 

[Mike Poole]

ECM T192:

Now that's summer!

[mb018538]

Hello summer  

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Stone the crows.. That's more like it. 

Wait for it.... It gets better.. 

Edited June 14, 2020 by MATT☀️

[Djdazzle]

Welcome home Mr Azores!

[Zak M]

ECM is a stonker this evening, hoping it's not an outlier as most of its other runs have been...

Tell you what, I am loving the weather right now! It's a mix of everything. Low twenties and convective heavy, thundery showers is perfect for me.

[Guest]

Well isn't this getting ridiculous, might as well spin a roulette wheel. GFS stonking great outlier, UKMO looks as through by 168/192hrs it would follow the majority of the GFS ensembles in being unsettled only for ECM to throw up a strongly ridging Azores high. You'd fancy the ECM Ops run again to be massive outlier although I'm mega hoping its not!! 

[Mike Poole]

ECM T216 was great, and it goes on T240:

Stonker!

[Djdazzle]

2 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Well isn't this getting ridiculous, might as well spin a roulette wheel. GFS stonking great outlier, UKMO looks as through by 168/192hrs it would follow the majority of the GFS ensembles in being unsettled only for ECM to throw up a strongly ridging Azores high. You'd fancy the ECM Ops run again to be massive outlier although I'm mega hoping its not!! 

I’d say the GFS ensembles are next to useless at the moment as they are flip-flopping from run to run. I’m not surprised to see some of the ops trying to ridge in the Azores high, as this is a plausible outcome.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Fantastic ending to a fantastic run.. Even if its a little outlier... The viewing was worth it!! I feel pretty dam good right now... Well at least for the next hour..

[Djdazzle]

3 minutes ago, MATT said:

Fantastic ending to a fantastic run.. Even if its a little outlier... The viewing was worth it!! I feel pretty dam good right now... Well at least for the next hour..

If we could get the HP to the east of us, there is some nice heat building in Spain.

Edited June 14, 2020 by Djdazzle

[mb018538]

As great as ECM is, please don’t get too downbeat in the morning when it’s likely different. I’m sure the ensembles will tell us the same in an hour when that black line is high in the sky on its own!

[Mike Poole]

Good output across the board from 12z suite, especially ECM.  I think our weather fortunes are on an upward trajectory, in line with AAM forecasts.  And here's the JMA at T192:

Sums it up, get that nosing in trough out of the way, and it is all good....