Model Output Discussion - Into Summer 2020.

[mushymanrob]

Personally, i wouldnt get suckered in by the ECM, just because its showing what many of us want to see.

I cant see any support here for the Azores ridging the ECM suggests, and 9/10 the NOAA charts trump the ops. Troughing, albeit shallow ? looks like being the dominant feature for us, as the Scandinavian block refuses to budge.Light/moderate upper flow off the Atlantic would , i believe, bring pretty average conditions, changable, NW/SE divide, but not too wet with plenty of decent summery weather between weak systems?

 

Edited June 14, 2020 by mushymanrob
typo

[markyo]

4 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

Personally, i wouldnt get suckered in by the ECM, just because its showing what many of us want to see.

I cant see any support here for the Azores ridging the ECM suggests, and 9/10 the NOAA charts trump the ops. Troughing, albeit shallow ? looks like being the dominant feature for us, as the Scandinavian block refuses to budge.Light/moderate upper flow off the Atlantic would , i believe, bring pretty average conditions, changable, NW/SE divide, but not too wet with plenty of decent summery weather between weak systems?

 

In my view that assessment is pretty much bang on. Nothing either end of the spectrum on the cards, more akin to a very normal UK summer

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, markyo said:

In my view that assessment is pretty much bang on. Nothing either end of the spectrum on the cards, more akin to a very normal UK summer

Yes i think thats fair comment.

No heatwave, no washout ,temps low 20s with showers around.

Hopefully less emphasis on showers as we move towards next weekend.

[northwestsnow]

12 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

Personally, i wouldnt get suckered in by the ECM, just because its showing what many of us want to see.

I cant see any support here for the Azores ridging the ECM suggests, and 9/10 the NOAA charts trump the ops. Troughing, albeit shallow ? looks like being the dominant feature for us, as the Scandinavian block refuses to budge.Light/moderate upper flow off the Atlantic would , i believe, bring pretty average conditions, changable, NW/SE divide, but not too wet with plenty of decent summery weather between weak systems?

 

I am hopeless at reading these charts..

UK under the influence of scandy high?

[Methuselah]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

Yes i think thats fair comment.

No heatwave, no washout ,temps low 20s with showers around.

Hopefully less emphasis on showers as we move towards next weekend.

But, because the 500mb charts are averaged, over x-number of days, there's plenty of room for a NW-SE split to form; the difference between warm/very warm SW-erlies and average/rather cool WNW'erlies is, in the grand scheme of things... not much difference at all?

Unlike @markyo, I can't see anything that tells me definitively whether the summer will be cool, average or warm; though, with the current surfeit of warm air, I'd expect it to be warmer rather than cooler then average...I'll call that a guess, then?

[bluearmy]

15 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

Personally, i wouldnt get suckered in by the ECM, just because its showing what many of us want to see.

I cant see any support here for the Azores ridging the ECM suggests, and 9/10 the NOAA charts trump the ops. Troughing, albeit shallow ? looks like being the dominant feature for us, as the Scandinavian block refuses to budge.Light/moderate upper flow off the Atlantic would , i believe, bring pretty average conditions, changable, NW/SE divide, but not too wet with plenty of decent summery weather between weak systems?

 

It’s a pretty decent representation rob - persistent ridge to our east and the Azores waxing and waning (but ene rather than n as it has recently).  The energy from the Greenland upper trough weakly disrupting se into the med through n Iberia/ w France from time to time ..... the edges of the envelope does not rule out the troughing getting close enough to th U.K. to bring some less good conditions but on balance it’s looking pretty good.  The ec op is a decent representation of this pattern with the back end showing an upper trough being discharged se across us - 

[mb018538]

27 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

I am hopeless at reading these charts..

UK under the influence of scandy high?

It’s on the boundary. If you look at the green contours, there is a dip down very close to the west of the UK, which would indicate upper troughing, and a strong bulge and ridge to the east. As others have said - average conditions really, perhaps slightly rather than worse than average.

[mushymanrob]

28 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

I am hopeless at reading these charts..

UK under the influence of scandy high?

it helps if you rotate the chart..

It illustrates the Scandinavian high, and the Azores ridge which is slightly displaced westwards. The green lines dip just to our west, thats the upper flow contours, so the upper flow is off the Atlantic, dipping to our West suggestive of Troughing, then bending around the top of Scandinavia suggesting high pressure.

From this the mean 8-14 day chart , we can expect a mean southwesterly sourced off the Atlantic. Southwesterly = normal average british weather for the last part of June.

 

[Ice Day]

Good runs this morning, not as good as last nights but still within the same envelope.  The last few posts have said it all really, we're entering a spell of typical British summertime weather, nothing at the extremes, which is fine by me.  Looking at the coming week on the GFS for Tues - Fri, warmth transfers further north as the week goes on so something for everyone!

  

I think it was Crewe (apologies if not) last night who stated that the coming period would be best described as 'settled > unsettled > settled', which sums it up nicely. 

[MP-R]

18 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

 

I think it was Crewe (apologies if not) last night who stated that the coming period would be best described as 'settled > unsettled > settled', which sums it up nicely. 

Well I’m certainly ready for the settled part. Five days of predominantly sunny and warm would go down a treat to counteract the rather temperamental last five days!

Could do with more influence from either the Azores high or the Scandinavian high, or even both together. Where’s the summer link up when you need it!

[sheikhy]

Is it me or is that troughy feature that is to the south west and eventually runs into france becoming more dominant as each gfs runs passes and its doing what it normally does and slowly sneakily going towards ecm?

[Frosty.]

Following the current warm and humid sunshine and heavy / thundery showers regime there is more in the way of ridging / less humid  and more in the way of fine weather Indicated according to the ECM 0z ensemble mean, especially further s / se.
 

 

Edited June 14, 2020 by JON SNOW

[bluearmy]

2 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Is it me or is that troughy feature that is to the south west and eventually runs into france becoming more dominant as each gfs runs passes and its doing what it normally does and slowly sneakily going towards ecm?

There is a feature on meteociel ‘activer  live compare ‘.  You can check all the previous 4 runs of gfs with the current inc yesterday’s 06z .....and yes, with ref to the latter part of this week, gfs is much rowed back on the upper ridge ....

[Djdazzle]

I think it’s been more of a case of model convergence for the week ahead, rather than one jumping fully towards another.

[Guest]

Seems like another small step backwards on the GFS 06Z run, showers now looking prevalent all week, some weak frontal activity floating around the south at time keeping it cool, temps down on previous runs along with uppers and an increasingly unsettled picture beyond day 8/9 as the flow again turns north westerly.

Edited June 14, 2020 by Guest

[Leo97t]

I think the GFS Is overplaying the low at day 7. I expect the ECM to be closer on this one

[Man With Beard]

At last the ecm has given us a range of clusters, though only after after D8. The D9 set of clusters seem pretty representative of the options thrown up by recent op runs of all models 

Three fairly evenly populated clusters. Cluster 3 is clearly the most favorable for a hot, sunny end to June, with a strong ridge through the UK - we've seen this pop up on a few op runs (from various models). Cluster 2 is a typical NW/SE split with changeable weather further NW, and probably less inclement interruptions for SE with it fairly warm here. Cluster 1 is halfway between the two clusters except for Europe - it's a tease - anomalies on the face of it don't seem bad for the UK, but with it being between the Scandi ridge and Azores ridge, I would suspect the UK would once again be a trough magnet though not a particularly deep one - the reason why the trough anomaly does not seem deeper for the UK could well be due to positioning issues. 

If I blend the three options together, you might summise that there will be both an attempt at ridging through the UK and an attempt to push a minor trough through the UK into Europe. So good days and less good days in the 7-10 period, with the good days outnumbering the bad further south? 

D11-15 goes back to one cluster - generally good ridge anomalies, less Scandi High influence (which will help us not be the destination of disrupted Atlantic troughs), though the center of the Azores High remains west - all in all we'd be unlucky to see too much unsettled weather during the period, and the flow will be warm enough, though less likely to be extremely warm. 

Edited June 14, 2020 by Man With Beard

[Guest]

Another embarrassing back track from GFS - what warm spell, completely gone from the ensembles now. 

12z from yesterday verses 06Z this morning 

[Djdazzle]

The model cannot be trusted - end of. It’s not even worth looking beyond 96.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

55 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Seems like another small step backwards on the GFS 06Z run, showers now looking prevalent all week, some weak frontal activity floating around the south at time keeping it cool, temps down on previous runs along with uppers and an increasingly unsettled picture beyond day 8/9 as the flow again turns north westerly.

Maybe that's what the op shows, and tbh the GFS 6z run is always one of the worse of the bunch, along with the 18s..the mean basically suggests a trough to the NW but pleasent conditions away from those areas... Looks pretty good towards the SE.. No screaming heatwave as yet but pretty warm non the less. 

[Methuselah]

1 minute ago, Alderc said:

Another embarrassing back track from GFS - what warm spell, completely gone from the ensembles now. 

12z from yesterday verses 06Z this morning 

And so soon after an equally 'embarrassing' backtrack from the ECM, only yesterday...Which, I guess, will soon be two -- when and if it switches back to what it was saying the day before yesterday...?

Can computer algorithms feel emotions?

[MATTWOLVES 3]

10 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Another embarrassing back track from GFS - what warm spell, completely gone from the ensembles now. 

12z from yesterday verses 06Z this morning 

That mean would put temperatures into the low to mid 20s..is that not warm? If your expecting to see 30+ on a regular basis it may be better served to view the ensembles for Africa more often. I would say your neck of the woods would be pretty decent. 

[Methuselah]

So, from Day 7, when the 06Z starts having problems (let's see what the other models come up with before making any sweeping statements?) everything looks up-in-the-air; but, it does look as if the 16-day megaheatwave (that nobody predicted!) has been put on hold again...?

    

    

    

    

I'd better get my winter woolies out, going by that: a couple days at only 19-21C will be too much to bear... I must be a Southern Softy'!

And, as has been the case a lot, lately, the 06Z op pretty much runs along the bottom of the T850 ens; it's none too great regarding SLP, either:

    

    

Edited June 14, 2020 by General Cluster

[mb018538]

Best to just take a balanced view - I think some minds were swayed by some good op runs last night, but despite these there was never 100% agreement on such a scenario playing out. The NOAA anomalies have always maintained a trough fairly close to the UK, which makes that big Azores extension harder to achieve. I think average summer conditions wouldn’t be too bad, and probably the most likely option? The extra warm and settled outlook is less likely. D12 shows the trough still close by:

[weathermadbarnsleylad]

1 hour ago, Man With Beard said:

At last the ecm has given us a range of clusters, though only after after D8. The D9 set of clusters seem pretty representative of the options thrown up by recent op runs of all models 

Three fairly evenly populated clusters. Cluster 3 is clearly the most favorable for a hot, sunny end to June, with a strong ridge through the UK - we've seen this pop up on a few op runs (from various models). Cluster 2 is a typical NW/SE split with changeable weather further NW, and probably less inclement interruptions for SE with it fairly warm here. Cluster 1 is halfway between the two clusters except for Europe - it's a tease - anomalies on the face of it don't seem bad for the UK, but with it being between the Scandi ridge and Azores ridge, I would suspect the UK would once again be a trough magnet though not a particularly deep one - the reason why the trough anomaly does not seem deeper for the UK could well be due to positioning issues. 

If I blend the three options together, you might summise that there will be both an attempt at ridging through the UK and an attempt to push a minor trough through the UK into Europe. So good days and less good days in the 7-10 period, with the good days outnumbering the bad further south? 

D11-15 goes back to one cluster - generally good ridge anomalies, less Scandi High influence (which will help us not be the destination of disrupted Atlantic troughs), though the center of the Azores High remains west - all in all we'd be unlucky to see too much unsettled weather during the period, and the flow will be warm enough, though less likely to be extremely warm. 

Cluster 3 fan.