Model Output Discussion - Into Summer 2020.

[mb018538]

I find it difficult to back against the ECM. Until it shows similar, I’d still back it over the other 3, even on its own - that doesn’t mean it’s not infallible though!

Edited June 13, 2020 by mb018538

[I remember Atlantic 252]

EC correct my guess, late June now, Atlantic air with low pressure now the most common setup, and experts on here say EC is most accurate, best verification stats semi FI range

[Cheshire Freeze]

Well it's over to the others again now. How often is the EC wrong at 96 hrs?

[Djdazzle]

5 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

T144:

And there we go, failure to link up those ridges while the chance was there leads to this.   

Anyone bets on which way this will go?  I think 70/30 in favour of the other models at the moment, what do you guys think?

50:50 based on what has happened in the past.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Guess is, 18Z GFS will move slowly towards EC, bigger shift on 00Z, and UKMO, fear by tomorrows 12Z's, we'll be looking at Atlantic air and unsettled on Fri 19th on all 3 models, we're not in April or May anymore

Edited June 13, 2020 by I remember Atlantic 252

[MATTWOLVES 3]

I think at 144hrs ECM is joining the party...

I must be viewing the wrong charts. Or I'm going senile. 

Edited June 13, 2020 by MATT☀️

[snowking]

4 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Well it's over to the others again now. How often is the EC wrong at 96 hrs?

Normally only ever when it is in disagreement with the UKMO at the same time in my experience - not always, but that remains the key factor here for me

[northwestsnow]

I did suggest EC probably won't back down,if anything it looks even more aggressive with the Atlantic.

It could still be wrong of course.

Edit it looks better than the 00z run at day 8 ..

Edited June 13, 2020 by northwestsnow

[Mike Poole]

GFS parallel 6z backs the majority of models, here T96 and T192:

 

[mb018538]

Much better 192 than this morning - low pressure nicely up over Iceland where it belongs!

[Captain Shortwave]

The only thing I can say is look at the day three charts on all the models and try and imagine where the jet stream will move in our part of the world. Most models simply keep this to the north of the U.K., however the ECM has a kink in the 500mb heights, a shallow trough, you can see where a split flow would develop and feed that low near the U.K. we are initially looking at weak heights that help develop something more robust later, the ECM route stops this happening.

Week two is beginning to set up that NW/SE split with deeper lows crossing the Atlantic and the Azores height riffing strongly to the south of the U.K. Actually the result isn’t bad for a fair chunk of the U.K.

Edited June 13, 2020 by Captain Shortwave

[Cheshire Freeze]

EC actually isn't bad going forward- settled and warm in the S days 7 and 8. Cloudy and muggy further NW

[Mike Poole]

3 minutes ago, MATT said:

I think at 144hrs ECM is joining the party...

I don't think so, actually, this run actually looks like evidence that it is wrong here, it is a weird evolution from T96 (where I think it went wrong) to this.  Having seen this I'm backing the other models at T96 more, maybe 90%?

[AWD]

Struggling to see the negativity in this evenings EC Det run.  Takes a bit longer to get there, admittedly, but away from the far North and West, it’s progressively more settled and warmer through next week:

Edited June 13, 2020 by AWD

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Just now, Mike Poole said:

I don't think so, actually, this run actually looks like evidence that it is wrong here, it is a weird evolution from T96 (where I think it went wrong) to this.  Having seen this I'm backing the other models at T96 more, maybe 90%?

Its actually much better than the oz Mike, and looks cracking for the South later. I feel the mean is again gonna be fine. 

[northwestsnow]

Just now, CreweCold said:

EC actually isn't bad going forward- settled and warm in the S days 7 and 8. Cloudy and muggy further NW

Yup...

Bit more wriggle room for the SE, i noted Exeter referring to a NW /SE split moving forward.

Beginning to look like the warmth is here to stay for the SE at least..

[northwestsnow]

EC indeed turns into a lovely summer run..

That Azores conveyor belt looks good to go by day 8 onwards...

[Mike Poole]

4 minutes ago, MATT said:

Its actually much better than the oz Mike, and looks cracking for the South later. I feel the mean is again gonna be fine. 

Aye it gets there in the end Matt, T216, like the GEM

So maybe all roads lead to this?  That is kind of the purpose of background signals, but the divergence at T96 it is still of interest to me until it is resolved probably tomorrow morning. It occurs to me that ECM has got the first bit wrong and has been forced to correct, rather than sending that low right over us like the 0z.

Edited June 13, 2020 by Mike Poole

[Mike Poole]

All's well that ends well, ECM T240:

If you look at the middle part of this run, I wonder if this a halfway house capitulation to UKMO/GFS ?

Edited June 13, 2020 by Mike Poole

[Cheshire Freeze]

I think we may have just seen a synoptic outlier at the other end of the spectrum! 

[mb018538]

2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

I think we may have just seen a synoptic outlier at the other end of the spectrum! 

I think you could well be right.

Look at the ecm day 10 00z vs 12z below:

 

Crazy differences.

[Ice Day]

Just viewed the 12z's and it's a bit like Groundhog Day, with the UKMO and GFS still looking very similar to yesterdays and this mornings output.  Then the ECM goes off on one at 96, has an attack of the vapours, then manages to get back on track for days 7-10!

Things are looking very good at this point through to next weekend.

 

[sheikhy]

Ecm a beauty!!!!!dodgy 144 hour chart and then comes back with a vengeance?!!

[Mike Poole]

That was a really interesting 12z suite, surely the ECM must be wrong at T96?  No matter what the rest of the run was like, this question must be answered first.  All the other models prevented that low dropping down into the vicinity of the UK.   ECM looking a bit isolated, maybe it saying it now isn't affected by flight data loss, is marketing speak rather than science?  Any road, if it has got this wrong at T96, it will be quite something!

[Mike Poole]

ECM mean and spread T96, squeaky bum time....

Think it is going for the trough solution!