Model Output Discussion - Into Summer 2020.

[Portsmouth Sun]

12 minutes ago, Leo97t said:

Looking very very decent from Sat-tuesday in the SE with sunny spells and thunderstorms. The humidity will make it feel higher than the 22-24C. After that no idea.

Saturday/Sunday could see unbroken sunshine in places if the BBC forecast is right and cloud cover is the one thing I rate them for

I'm certainly looking forward to the Saturday-Tuesday period down here on the south coast. Those showers that passed through earlier were certainly potent.  Looking further ahead the rest of next week could bring anything, but looking at the charts I would suggest the south coast may very well fair well and Royal Ascot (minus them) will be a fair weather meeting.  

[northwestsnow]

E C is a cracker 

Azores high  does indeed ridge in by day 6/7...

Million dollar question is it to be believed??

Edited June 11, 2020 by northwestsnow

[Mike Poole]

T192:

Really good run this, good to see such runs back in the mix for what we can expect post mid month.  

Edited June 11, 2020 by Mike Poole

[mb018538]

Certainly a very fine ecm towards day 8 onwards - as I posted this morning on the clusters, the end of next week is decent as the ecm sees it, and has some support.

Another stand off? At day 8 none of the gfs ensemble members are above 1020mb.

[Mr Frost]

Latest ECM to 144 hours:

It is warm, muggy, humid and convective for many - lovely in the sunshine.

 

Total accumulated precipitation up to midday on 17th June - just for fun!

 

So basically if you get caught out/seek these expected torrential downpours/thunderstorms you will know all about it - just ask @Man With Beard 

Looking forward to seeing what the second half of June brings! 

All the best everyone! 

Edited June 11, 2020 by Mr Frost

[Djdazzle]

It would be cruel and ironic if the GFS is correct, now that it shows an inferior outcome.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Super day! 25 plus degrees Manchester S/E wards, but 240 chart hmm, looks like could be bad away from the SE?

[weathermadbarnsleylad]

Azores ridge gets in but gets moved aside by 216hr on ECM 12z.Still time for it to change still. 

[weathermadbarnsleylad]

Low pressure over NW UK by 240hr ecm 12z.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Things look great come day 8,yet look dodgy come day 10...thats a long way off though.. Let's get the fine spell in first then worry about that later. 

[mb018538]

 

ECM day 9 op is very close to the d9 cluster from this morning. A bit of much needed consistency.

[Mike Poole]

2 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

 

ECM day 9 op is very close to the d9 cluster from this morning. A bit of much needed consistency.

Yes, good call, I wonder if we need to endure this one last low before sustainable ridging from the Azores takes hold as AAM rebounds?

[Frosty.]

Although this evenings ECM 12z operational is a mixed bag, there is a more settled period during the second half of the run under high pressure / strong ridging..for a time! and as for temperatures, well, what can I say, there’s plenty of warmth and humidity (decent uppers / 850’s) a chance of thunderstorms as well as spells of very warm sunshine..it’s definitely showing summer!!!

Edited June 11, 2020 by JON SNOW

[Ice Day]

Really good ECM tonight, whilst it's not showing any extreme temperatures (which is fine by me), there's a lot of very 'usable' weather coming up.  Slack winds through early next week will make it feel very warm in any sunshine.  

And if the GFS is to be believed...   ... there's increased CAPE aplenty next week (this for Tuesday and Wednesday) so chances of storms cropping up almost anywhere.  Pretty much perfect summer weather in my book!

  

 

[Mike Poole]

ECM mean still painting a positive picture towards day 10.

Here T192, 240:

The signal for a ridge to dominate in UK region at this timescale has  been shown on several ECM means recently, I think it is latching on to the signal from the AAM, with the wave pattern in the NH pushing high heights our way at last....we will see....

Edited June 11, 2020 by Mike Poole

[Djdazzle]

Maybe a few hints of a positive pattern change on tonight's ECM. Let's see if the 00z can back this up.

[Man With Beard]

1 hour ago, Mr Frost said:

Latest ECM to 144 hours:

It is warm, muggy, humid and convective for many - lovely in the sunshine.

 

Total accumulated precipitation up to midday on 17th June - just for fun!

 

So basically if you get caught out/seek these expected torrential downpours/thunderstorms you will know all about it - just ask @Man With Beard 

Looking forward to seeing what the second half of June brings! 

All the best everyone! 

yes, yes, yes - that was some storm earlier today!!! 33mm fell in little over 30 minutes (I've already exceeded the precipitation chart above!), and I only caught about half of the heavy stuff!! So heavy that sewage started coming up through the drains near here 

oh sorry it's the MOD thread, back on topic! what on earth happened on the ECM tonight? This trough is either seriously independent minded, or very indecisive! First I saw rumours on twitter that it might take on tropical storm features as it hits North Spain later today (sounds impossible!). Then it comes back across Biscay tomorrow and spends the weekend in a b&b in Cornwall. For the past 36 hours it looked like being swallowed up by the Atlantic low but, no, tonight's ECM has it heading back into Europe again!! 

    

It would mean a whole week of warmish weather with storm threat. I think many of here would be pretty pleased with that.

Edited June 11, 2020 by Man With Beard

[Methuselah]

3 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

yes, yes, yes - that was some storm earlier today!!! 33mm fell in little over 30 minutes, and I only caught about half of the heavy stuff!! So heavy that sewage started coming up through the drains near here 

oh sorry it's the MOD thread, back on topic! what on earth happened on the ECM tonight? This trough is either seriously independent minded, or very indecisive! First I saw rumours on twitter that it might take on tropical storm features as it hits North Spain later today (sounds impossible!). Then it comes back across Biscay tomorrow and spends the weekend in a b&b in Cornwall. For the past 36 hours it looked like being swallowed up by the Atlantic low but, no, tonight's ECM has it heading back into Europe again!! 

    

It would mean a whole week of warmish weather with storm threat. I think many of here would be pretty pleased with that.

So it ain't just the GFS that's disappearing up its own harce, then!

[northwestsnow]

Mean is very good....

Det will likely be an outlier late on...

[mb018538]

interesting...ecm too progressive at the end bringing that low so close to the UK. If the ecm is correct, the back end of next week into next weekend could be very pleasant, with temperatures up to 25c in places.

[bradymk]

ICON with some fairly big changes earlier in the run and then drops the LP and trough southwards into Spain by +120. Very different from its other runs today. 

Stronger ridging earlier on causing a linkup between the high out west and to our north east.

[Ben Sainsbury]

13 minutes ago, bradythemole said:

ICON with some fairly big changes earlier in the run and then drops the LP and trough southwards into Spain by +120. Very different from its other runs today. 

Stronger ridging earlier on causing a linkup between the high out west and to our north east.

ICON has been fairly consistent in following the trends of the ECM/UKMO etc as of late, so for it to spring onto a new idea makes me question if it is actually onto something.

[snowray]

16 minutes ago, bradythemole said:

ICON with some fairly big changes earlier in the run and then drops the LP and trough southwards into Spain by +120. Very different from its other runs today. 

Stronger ridging earlier on causing a linkup between the high out west and to our north east.

So Is this going to be one of the usual 18z run wind ups or are we about to witness the biggest turnaround at T96 so far this year?

[snowray]

Icon is almost certainly taking some of it's data from the gfs 18z, so let's see what it's about to dish up, a temporary return to summer until the 00z runs? Or maybe, just maybe.....

[Djdazzle]

1 minute ago, snowray said:

Icon is almost certainly taking some of it's data from the gfs 18z, so let's see what it's about to dish up, a temporary return to summer until the 00z runs? Or maybe, just maybe.....

Maybe the pubs have opened unexpectedly and the ICON is taking advantage!