Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Model Output Discussion - Into Summer 2020.


Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
6 minutes ago, Zak M said:

144

ECM1-144.gif

I'm wondering if that feature is losing its identity near the UK and this will be one of those runs that are certainly possible at the moment, and will now start to build an Azores ridge. Let's see, may take a few days on this run...

Edited by Mike Poole
Remove unwanted charts
  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

I’m sorry but that ecm run is horrid out to day 6, and is just more cloud and rain. Such a shame we might end up with this evolution when 1-2 days ago it looked half decent early next week. Ensembles will be interesting.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

ECM slower to lift the trough latest v 00z I’m sceptical GFS forecasting 26°C in London on Monday will come to fruition. 

8ABD48B8-9F52-497D-83E0-BAA69374BF0E.thumb.png.f781e8cd91ef974c68f554b4db494a2e.png2D49E91A-6E98-46BF-A035-D8A614699A97.thumb.png.79146b6a10fdf35159eabfa3cd71a2fd.png

Its poor from ECM again, temps don't exceed 18/19C here until at least Tuesday, a few further north east might see 21-22C at times but a lot of cloud supressing temps not helped and not particularly warm airmass. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

Well, well it’s another big divide there going on, between ECM and GFS the latter much warmer and settled.

2C997807-AD93-48AC-9C79-37E88E339DF9.thumb.png.a1323f61d10caecf1d783e0cbebc62b4.png0838A12A-0E7C-4ACC-A2CE-028334F46D35.thumb.png.946829fce323448c671e7520638b575e.png

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

It just seems that at the moment, no matter how the synoptics change, we can’t get out of this rut.

I'm not saying I told you so but when everyone was saying this was only a blip and I said this is pattern that can easily stick around it was dismissed. Bar the complete outlier that is GFS we'll be two weeks in without much sign of anything settled. The 168 chart from ECM is really poor. 

 

Edited by Guest
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Gourock, Scotland
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, Severe Gales, Hot & Sunny or Cold & Sunny!
  • Location: Gourock, Scotland
11 minutes ago, Zak M said:

144

ECM1-144.gif

Just for fun at this range of course...but could be a good day for thunderstorms/torrential downpours throughout the UK.

E4170867-A9EB-4832-9E88-2D4A24ADB7F6.thumb.png.b2d679e511d68d24884b018c8f4d5359.pngD889BF05-E513-4CF5-8D90-BB820747DAF1.thumb.png.634457a51305d45af24ede556003b995.png0A126CA9-B29B-4CEE-90C9-C0C21D2BBE92.thumb.png.6dd088a8c3d97ce48541cddfff806098.png92548298-AD1A-4093-BB5F-A7352AA21F9B.thumb.png.e757496f44f2d5683e4f269872c27317.png

 

Edited by Mr Frost
  • Like 8
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
5 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

It just seems that at the moment, no matter how the synoptics change, we can’t get out of this rut.

Well we just don't know yet!  The big 3 were so different at T120, by now we're just commenting on the aesthetics of the run.

Worth looking at the NH view occasionally even in summer, here T168:

image.thumb.jpg.cb2ebc1896294f8da1cc598f311c68a2.jpg

Digging a trough south west of Greenland?

Edited by Mike Poole
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

GEM and JMA suck too, NW'lys Wed/Thur, not sure about verification, but these 2 models probably better than GFS

J192-21.GIF?10-12gem-0-168.png?12

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
1 minute ago, Alderc said:

I'm not saying I told you so but when everyone was saying this was only a blip and I said this is pattern that can easily stick around it was dismissed. Bar the complete outlier that is GFS we'll be two weeks without much sign of anything settled. The 168 chart from ECM is really poor. 

It goes against all of the intuition though. We have been immensely unlucky because everything that can go against us, has.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire

192

ECM1-192 (2).gif

  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Djdazzle said:

It goes against all of the intuition though. We have been immensely unlucky because everything that can go against us, has.

As part of my job I have to be naturally cautious maybe that's why I was a bit doomy about it but I don't care what the background signals are when the models start showing two large blocking highs sandwiching in a trough near the UK its always a dangerous time and the pattern nearly always takes ages and ages to reset. We could be bathed in glorious sunshine and warm temps in 7-10days time however unless their is a fundamental shift the pattern I think its unlikely. Could do with some Tropical activity to mix things up a bit....

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

ECM T216:

image.thumb.jpg.1d6d496b217f8b1fa8d30fbcdd5695d7.jpg

Well it is a different evolution, but brings an Atlantic trough, so that is good news.  I still think it is at odds with other output, not just the 12z ops, still plenty of uncertainty here...but the Atlantic trough is kind of what we are expecting to happen although it taking a little longer than anticipated.

Edited by Mike Poole
  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire

12z ECM ends quite good @240 

ECM1-240.gif

Better for the south though.

Edited by Zak M
  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

Well that concludes a fairly disappointing set of 12z runs GFS aside - in my humble opinion. People may well disagree.

Looks like the trough disruption has caused the issue once again, and the energy isn’t going to split in our favour. With that comes 2-4 inches of rain in the next 10 days in a few spots (usually model accuracy caveats apply), but the synoptics  are certainly there. With an upper trough and surface trough over the UK or close by meaning no or little atmospheric cap, those rain clouds will build up and empty a lot of moisture. 

E66066A9-068A-496B-9B75-39F07AFB3ACC.thumb.jpeg.d30bf91622b36e11a887725ad526259c.jpeg

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL

I suspect GFS is being shown up for the inferior model it is again this evening.

EC takes an eternity to clear the trough again so i will assume this is the correct evolution despite GFS offering the promise of something much more settled..

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Summer
  • Location: manchester
58 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

It just seems that at the moment, no matter how the synoptics change, we can’t get out of this rut.

The concern was raised about 2 week ago how this synoptic pattern could stick around but i was jumped upon and told not to pay attention to it because many were intent on it being just a blip. Hoping models look much different tomorrow (as usual) 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
2 minutes ago, 38.7°C said:

The concern was raised about 2 week ago how this synoptic pattern could stick around but i was jumped upon and told not to pay attention to it because many were intent on it being just a blip. Hoping models look much different tomorrow (as usual) 

To be fair, most indications suggested a blip. And hopefully it will only turn out that way, albeit a slightly longer blip than initially hoped for!

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

I think the GFS is to meteorology as the single parent is to economics: they both take the blame for all that's wrong with the system and/or whenever the 'experts' haven't a clue...?

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

Not a bad mean, more especially across Central Southern and SE areas.. High pressure looks to be ridging nicely later next week. Looks a little more unsettled towards the NW and generally cooler. 

The ens point this out well..

EDM1-120.gif

EDM1-144.gif

EDM1-168.gif

EDM1-192.gif

EDM1-216.gif

EDM1-240.gif

graphe1_00_247_93___.png

Edited by MATT☀️
  • Like 8
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
6 hours ago, ComradeDyatlov said:

Hi there, 

 

Totally new to all this but am a frequent visitor, but sorry if I'm asking in the wrong place. I was just wondering, does anyone have a resource that I can use to learn how to interpret these charts as well as learn about weather patterns in general? Also, where are people accessing these charts?

 

Thanks in advance and sorry again if I'm asking in the wrong place

Sorry just seen this, not sure if it's been answered, I'd suggest starting by downloading the Meteociel app on your phone or tablet. It's in French but pretty easy to get the hang of. 

Edited by Man With Beard
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...